① BP expects global oil demand to peak next year, and renewable energy such as wind energy and solar energy will continue to grow rapidly; ② Under the current development scenario, wind and solar power generation will increase by about 8 times by 2050, and 14 times under the net zero emissions scenario.
Finance Association, July 10 (Editor Niu Zhanlin) On Wednesday local time, energy giant British Petroleum (BP) released its latest annual energy outlook report. The company expects global oil demand to peak next year, and renewable energy such as wind and solar energy will continue to grow rapidly.
In the report, BP hypothesized two possible scenarios. One is based on the current energy transition plans of various governments. By the mid-2030s, global primary energy demand will continue to grow and then stabilize, and the increase in energy consumption in emerging economies will be offset by the decline in advanced economies. Under these circumstances, energy demand by 2050 will be about 5% higher than in 2022.
Under a net zero emissions scenario, energy demand will peak in the middle of this decade and then decline. Compared to 2022, energy demand in 2050 will be reduced by about 25%.
Regardless of the above scenario, BP expects oil demand to peak in 2025, at around 0.102 billion b/d. Of course, after 2025, oil demand will show considerable differences in different scenarios.
According to the current development trajectory, oil consumption will gradually decline over the next six months, and will drop to around 75 million b/d by 2050. Under the net zero emissions scenario, the decline in oil consumption is even more pronounced, and demand will drop to 25 million to 30 million b/d in 2050.
Demand for natural gas continues to grow and will grow by about one-fifth by 2050. This trend is being driven by growing demand in emerging economies, mainly in the power and industrial sectors. Demand for liquefied natural gas will grow rapidly until 2030. Under the current trajectory and net zero emissions, demand for liquefied natural gas will increase by 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2022.
In terms of renewable energy, under the current development scenario, wind and solar power generation will increase by about 8 times by 2050, and 14 times under the net zero emissions scenario.
The rapid pace of expansion of wind and solar energy is being supported by a further reduction in costs. As technology advances and energy production costs decrease, the level of deployment of these energy sources continues to increase, making them more cost-effective.
Notably, last year, BP refocused its traditional oil and gas business. Under the leadership of former CEO Bernard Rooney, the company adjusted its previous plans to rapidly switch to renewable energy. This strategy was opposed by some radical shareholders.