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美股前瞻 | 三大期指盘前齐涨!鲍威尔今夜再赴国会山;摩根大通警告:美股动荡即将在周四到来

US Stock Market Preview | Three major futures prices rose before trading! Powell returns to Capitol Hill tonight; JPMorgan warns: market turmoil is coming on Thursday.

Futu News ·  Jul 10 20:16

Global macro

  • On Wednesday, three major stock index futures rose collectively in pre-trading.

  • Powell returns to Capitol Hill.

Powell will testify on semiannual monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Powell testified on semiannual monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, saying that 'more good data' will enhance confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and recent data shows 'modest further progress' on prices. Market analysts' reactions to Powell's remarks were mixed, but he was generally considered to have laid the groundwork for a possible rate cut in September, assuming future data support's the Fed's policy adjustment. Powell is not expected to deviate too much from Tuesday's speech on Wednesday. Investors will closely watch for details Powell may reveal regarding rates, the current economic environment, and future policy clues.

  • Be vigilant! The "Buffett Indicator" is sounding the alarm: US stocks are just too expensive.

Seabreeze Partners Management founder Doug Kass believes the Buffett Indicator sends a clear message that U.S. stocks look very expensive. The Buffett Indicator is 'the total market capitalization of all U.S. traded stocks divided by the latest quarter's estimate of GDP.' Buffett said as early as 2001 that this 'might be the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.' Kass said other popular valuation metrics, including the P/E, P/S, and enterprise-value-to-sales ratios over the last 12 months, are all in the 90th percentile or higher relative to history.

  • JPMorgan warns: Turbulence in U.S. stocks is coming on Thursday.

This Thursday, the U.S. will release the heavyweight Consumer Price Index (CPI), which JPMorgan analysts said could trigger violent turbulence in U.S. stocks. The bank predicts that the core CPI for June in the U.S. will rise 0.2% compared to the previous month. Based on this forecast, Taylor has calculated four possible scenarios. The worst is if the core CPI for June rises by more than 0.3% MoM, which means the risk of U.S. inflation coming back weakens the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut, and this could trigger the selling of risky assets, and the S&P 500 is likely to fall 1.25-2.5% - but he believes there is only a 2.5% chance of this happening.

  • Senior economists warn: do not have too many illusions about the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Despite some expectations of a massive rate cut, it is more likely that the Fed will cut rates fewer times than expected this year and by 2025. Ben Emons, founder of Medley Global Advisers, points out, 'As long as the Fed thinks the economy is slowing moderately and inflation is gradually reaching their target, there will be no significant rate cut.' Emons believes the Fed may ultimately cut interest rates only 'three to four times,' and sees no need to hasten its easing pace because the possibility of a U.S. recession seems slim. If current economic trends persist, and as Fed Chairman Powell has stated, this seems reasonable.

  • Nikkei 225 hits new high, driven by financial and weight-bearing stocks.

Japanese stocks.$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$On Wednesday, the benchmark index reached its intraday high, with financials outperforming the broader market and investors rushing into stocks to participate in the recent rally. The Nikkei index spent most of the afternoon below par, but buying expanded during the last half-hour, pushing the Nikkei index to a new intraday historical high of 41,889.16 points.

Hot news

  • Growth tech stocks rose across the board before the market, with Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor both up about 2%.

  • Concept stocks of digital currency rose across the board before the market. On the news front, Bitcoin broke through $59,000 per coin on the day, and Ethereum broke through $3,100 per coin. In addition, the Republican National Committee released its official platform for the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Monday, expressing support for several policy measures favorable to digital currencies. Among other things, the Republican platform pledged to end 'illegal and un-American attacks' on the U.S. crypto industry. In addition to opposing the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), the platform promises to defend the right to mine Bitcoin and allow holders of digital currency to store their tokens themselves.

Concept stocks of digital currency rose across the board before the market. On the news front, Bitcoin broke through $59,000 per coin on the day, and Ethereum broke through $3,100 per coin. In addition, the Republican National Committee released its official platform for the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Monday, expressing support for several policy measures favorable to digital currencies. Among other things, the Republican platform pledged to end 'illegal and un-American attacks' on the U.S. crypto industry. In addition to opposing the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), the platform promises to defend the right to mine Bitcoin and allow holders of digital currency to store their tokens themselves.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 2% before the market, and Q2 sales rose 40.1% YoY, exceeding expectations.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Pre-market rises more than 2%, trading at $188.92. In terms of news, TSMC has announced that its sales in June 2024 reached NT$207.87 billion, a MoM decrease of 9.5% and a YoY increase of 32.9%. Judging from the sales figures for April-June 2024 that TSMC has already disclosed, the sales revenue of TSMC in Q2 was NT$673.51 billion, which is higher than market expectations (the prediction of 21 analysts was NT$654.27 billion), and an increase of 40.1% YoY. TSMC predicted on the earnings call in April that sales revenue for Q2 would be between US$19.6 billion- US$20.4 billion (NT$6,388-NT$6,648).

  • TSMC to begin trial production of 2nm, with Apple being the first customer in 2025.

According to the media,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The chip trial production for the 2nm node process will begin next week at the newly constructed wafer factory in Baoshan, Hsinchu. The testing of required equipment and components will also commence. It has been reported that Apple plans to use chips produced by the 2nm node process in its products in 2025, which means the subsequent iPhone 17 series may be the first device to use chips produced by this advanced process.

  • Musk: The design of the second-generation Tesla humanoid robot Optimus will be completed later this year.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$CEO Musk stated on social media platform X that the design of the company's second-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, will be completed later in 2024. Musk said that the new design is "special", but did not disclose any other details. Earlier this year, Musk said that the humanoid robot is still under development, but may be released by the end of next year.

  • Intense competition! Tesla's market share falls below 50% for the first time in the US.

According to the latest estimate released on Tuesday by research institution Cox Automotive, Tesla's market share in the US electric car market fell to 49.7% in the second quarter of this year, marking the first time that the company's share in a quarter was below 50%, a decline of nearly 10 percentage points compared to the same period last year, when it was 59.3%.

  • Antitrust review intensifies, Microsoft and Apple will withdraw from OpenAI board of directors.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $Apple (AAPL.US)$They declined the opportunity to serve as an observer on OpenAI's board of directors, and this unexpected decision highlights the increasing scrutiny by antitrust regulators on the influence of large technology companies in the field of artificial intelligence. Prior to that, in a letter to OpenAI, Microsoft stated that its departure from the board of directors would "take effect immediately." According to a source familiar with the matter, Apple may also not arrange an observer role on the OpenAI board of directors. Apple is currently not commenting on the matter.

  • Bank of America: Apple's Q3 App Store revenue is expected to increase by 13% YoY, and EU DMA has little impact on user downloading behavior.

Bank of America analysts cited data from Sensor Tower, which stated that App Store revenue for the third quarter is expected to increase by 13% YoY to $7.5 billion, driven by the 3.2% YoY growth in downloads for iPhone and iPad. The analysts maintained a "buy" rating on Apple and a target price of $230. Earlier this year, the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) went into effect. The law requires Apple to allow EU users to use other app stores. Bank of America analysts pointed out that user behavior has "basically not changed," and the number of people downloading apps using other app stores is relatively small.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Nvidia may see a surge in production and delivery.

  • AI GPU H200 will enter mass production in late Q2 and is expected to be heavily delivered after Q3. The situation of supply not meeting demand for H200 may continue until 2025. B100 has also gained some visibility and is expected to start shipping in the first half of next year. On the server side, there are reports that the Nvidia GB200 NVL36 will enter mass production in Q4, and component manufacturers have been asked to complete mass production preparations by Q3.

According to reports,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Bezos sells more Amazon stock, holding less than 9%.

  • On Tuesday evening local time, a filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showed that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos had recently sold more stock. Following the disclosure of $333 million worth of stock sales on July 2 and July 3 last week, Bezos sold another $863 million worth of stock. After the recent transaction, Bezos still holds 93 million shares of Amazon stock, which accounts for 8.9% of all ownership rights in the 1.041 billion shares of common stock circulation.

Baidu rose more than 3% before trading, and news said Robin Run has put 1,000 self-driving cars in Wuhan.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Rose 8.47% yesterday.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

  • China concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

  • Continues to rise more than 3% before trading today, trading at $98.45. It has been rumored that Robin Run has put 1,000 self-driving taxis into operation in Wuhan. An insider revealed that Baidu has not yet explicitly disclosed the number of online car-hailing vehicles it has placed in Wuhan and other places. The aforementioned statement circulating on the internet has yet to be verified. It is reported that as of Q1 2024, Baidu Robin Run has provided the public with ride-hailing services 6 million times nationwide, of which the proportion of self-driving car orders in Wuhan has exceeded 55%, and increased to 70% in April, and it is expected to increase rapidly to 100% in the next few quarters.

Continued to rise more than 3% before trading today, trading at $98.45. It has been rumored that Robin Run has put 1,000 self-driving taxis into operation in Wuhan. An insider revealed that Baidu has not yet explicitly disclosed the number of online car-hailing vehicles it has placed in Wuhan and other places. The aforementioned statement circulating on the internet has yet to be verified. It is reported that as of Q1 2024, Baidu Robin Run has provided the public with ride-hailing services 6 million times nationwide, of which the proportion of self-driving car orders in Wuhan has exceeded 55%, and increased to 70% in April, and it is expected to increase rapidly to 100% in the next few quarters.$Baidu (BIDU.US)$Today, before the market opens, it rose more than 3%, to $98.45. In terms of news, it was rumored that Luobo Express, an online car-hailing platform, has put 1,000 self-driving taxis on the road in Wuhan. According to insiders, Baidu has not yet released the exact number of online car-hailing vehicles deployed in Wuhan and other places, and the relevant online claims cannot be verified at the moment. It is reported that as of the first quarter of 2024, Baidu Luobo Express had provided 6 million ride-hailing services to the public across the country, and the proportion of self-driving orders in Wuhan had exceeded 55%, and continued to rise to 70% in April. It is expected to continue to rise rapidly to 100% in the next few quarters.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, delivered a semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 p.m.

US wholesale inventory data for May will be released at 10 p.m.

22:30 Crude oil product inventory change in the week ending July 5 in the USA.

23:00 USA July IPSOS major consumer sentiment index PCSI.

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