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美国经济在高利率下保持坚挺的原因找到了?

Has the reason for the US economy's resilience under high interest rates been found?

Golden10 Data ·  Jul 10 20:36

A new report from the Dallas Federal Reserve found that this trend has boosted the US economy, but has hardly pushed inflation ...

According to a new report from a regional Federal Reserve, the wave of immigration has strengthened the US economy while almost not causing inflation.

At the time of this report release, immigration has become a political hot topic. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was questioned about this issue by Republican Senator J.D. Vance on Tuesday, who is a possible running mate for Trump in this year's presidential election. Powell said, "In the long run, immigration is neutral for inflation; in the short run, it may be helpful because the labor market becomes more loose, and more people come in."

Vance claimed that immigration may push up housing costs, which may be true in certain specific markets, but not for the country as a whole.

On the contrary, the report from the Dallas Federal Reserve said that immigration may cause slight inflation, but this increase is offset by improved output.

The report from the Dallas Federal Reserve analyzed the wave of immigration, with data from the Congressional Budget Office and the current population census. Economists at the Dallas Federal Reserve pointed out that current population census data shows that about 60% of recent immigrants have found jobs.

Economists at the Dallas Federal Reserve modeled and predicted that US quarterly GDP will grow by about 0.7% in 2024, and growth rates in the following two years will fall between 0.3% and 0.4%. In contrast, inflation rates may not exceed 0.1%.

Economists at the Dallas Federal Reserve said that data from Norway and models from Spain generally support their research results. Regarding the mechanism for employment growth, they pointed out that although the workforce increases, capital can only slowly meet this growth, which suppresses inflation-adjusted wages. They said that households may temporarily reduce consumption and choose to increase working hours, but overall, the increase in demand for goods will exceed supply, thereby putting upward pressure on inflation.

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