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U.S. stock market preview: Retail sales in June remained flat month-on-month, and the three major futures indexes rose slightly. Apple continued to rise before the market opened, with hopes of reaching a new historic high.

Futu News · Jul 16 20:37

全球宏观

周二，美股三大股指期货盘前小幅拉升

美国6月零售销售环比持平，预估为下降0.3%，前值为增长0.1%。截至发稿，三大股指期货盘前小幅拉升。

紧随鲍威尔“鸽声”？高盛：美联储应在7月首降，而非等到9月

美联储主席鲍威尔周一发出了重大“转鸽信号”，而就在他讲话期间，高盛首席经济学家哈祖斯高呼，美联储应该在7月31日即将召开的政策会议上降息，而非等到9月份。他在最新发布的报告中指出，通胀已经取得了足够的进展，回到了美联储2%的长期目标，这将使美联储有理由在7月份降息。

美联储戴利“泼冷水”：通胀确在降温，但降息仍需更多数据

旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利周一表示，通货膨胀率正在下降，这增强了人们对通胀率将降至2%目标的信心。她在一次活动上说，“通货膨胀正在下降，在某种程度上，人们越来越有信心，我们正在接近将通货膨胀率降至2%的可持续步伐”。戴利还强调，“在我们做出任何真正的决定之前，我们还有很多信息要获取”。她拒绝预计美联储何时开始降息，以及将降息多少次。

美股进入轮动期？美银：经济正进入“金发姑娘”时代，利好周期性股票

美国银行周一在最新报告中表示，低于预期的6月CPI报告正在推动“金发姑娘”经济成型，这应该有利于美国股市的一个特定板块：周期性股票。报告指出，只要经济增长放缓，美联储开始降息，那么对于原材料、工业、能源和非必需消费品行业以及部分科技行业的周期性股票来说，这将是一个利好。

和美联储唱反调？华尔街专家：今年不应该降息

从业40年的华尔街资深人士、比安科研究公司总裁兼宏观策略师吉姆·比安科表示，在美国经济准备重新加速之际，美联储不应冒着“过早风险”在今年降息。“我怀疑我们今年不会降息的原因是，我认为这（降息）是没有根据的。经济仍在继续良好运行，”他在接受最新采访时表示，“我怀疑（经济）下半年会出现反弹。”

大摩：对冲基金对软件类股的押注触及新低

摩根士丹利在一份最新报告中指出，在目前科技股出现大范围抛售之际，上周全球对冲基金对美股软件类股的敞口触及多年来新低。该行指出，上周在美国、欧洲和亚洲（不包括日本），投资组合经理总体上都在抛售股票。报告中写道，“其中软件股是净卖出最多的股票，这延续了该领域自4月底以来的净卖出势头，将风险敞口降至多年来的新低。”

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前普涨，特斯拉、台积电、阿斯麦涨超1%

金价上行，美股黄金股盘前普涨

美股黄金股盘前普涨，$哈莫尼黄金 (HMY.US)$涨近7%，$金田 (GFI.US)$涨超4%，$巴里克黄金 (GOLD.US)$涨0.27%。消息面上，国际金价重拾升势，现货黄金日内向上触及2430美元/盎司。此外，瑞银最新研报指出，投资者“逢低买入”黄金的兴趣依然浓厚，黄金仍有上涨空间，建议增配黄金。今年5月，瑞银分析师预计，今年9月国际金价将攀升至2500美元，年底将达2600美元。

华尔街最乐观多头：苹果有望涨至300美元

Loop Capital Markets分析师将$苹果 (AAPL.US)$股票目标价上调至300美元，成为华尔街最乐观的多头，300美元是目前金融分析机构FactSet所列出的最高目标价。截至发稿，苹果盘前小幅上涨，开盘有望再创新高。

特朗普竞选搭档、副总统候选人万斯持仓透露，主要为宽基和比特币ETF

特朗普“提名”的副总统万斯，主要通过ETF来投资美股，前三大持仓都是宽基ETF：$纳指100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$（24%）、$SPDR 标普500指数ETF (SPY.US)$和$SPDR道琼斯指数ETF (DIA.US)$（24%），这三个ETF今年分别涨了20.25%，17.03%和6.74%。

此外，万斯还持有比特币ETF$Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$，$黄金ETF (159934.SZ)$ $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$，$国债ETF (511010.SH)$$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares (TLT.US)$，娱乐平台$Rumble (RUM.US)$和原油ETF$ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK.US)$。

亚马逊Prime Day来袭，机构：Prime Day销售额有望创下140亿美元新高

7月16日至17日，全球电商零售巨头$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$一年一度的黄金会员日（Prime Day）火热来袭，今年Prime Day的销售额有望再上一个新台阶。根据美国电商研究机Adobe Analytics的预测，在本周为期两天的亚马逊Prime Day购物活动期间，购物者可能会花费约140亿美元，较去年的Prime Day增长10.5%。

美国银行盘前涨超2%，Q2营收254亿美元，计划提高股息

$美国银行 (BAC.US)$盘前涨超2%。美国银行公布2024年Q2财报，期内净利息支出后收入为254亿美元，去年同期为252亿美元；净利润为69亿美元，去年同期为74亿美元。公司宣布计划将每股季度普通股股息增加8%，至每股26美分，有待董事会批准。

联合健康盘前回落转跌至0.48%，Q2营收略超预期

$联合健康 (UNH.US)$美股盘前一度走高，现回落转跌至0.48%，报512.91美元。消息上，联合健康2024年Q2营收988.55亿美元，上年同期929.03亿美元，市场预期988.3亿美元。

摩根士丹利盘前跌超2%，Q2营收150亿美元，超市场预期

$摩根士丹利 (MS.US)$盘前跌超2%，报102.65美元。2024年Q2营收150亿美元，上年同期134.6亿美元，市场预期143亿美元；Q2第二季度净利息收入20.7亿美元，市场预估17.8亿美元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前涨跌不一

哔哩哔哩盘前涨近2%，新游表现亮眼，多家机构看好

$哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)$盘前涨近2%，报16.15美元。大和发研报指，因《三国：谋定天下》的表现亮丽，故将哔哩哔哩今年游戏收入增长预测上调至6%，新游戏短期推动股价。大和将公司2024年至2026年的收入预测上调0.6%至1.1%。交银国际亦认为，因哔哩哔哩新游超预期，小幅上调今年第二季收入1%至61亿元人民币，同比增16%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:00 美国5月商业库存月率

22:00 美国7月NAHB房产市场指数

次日

02:45 美联储理事库格勒发表讲话

04:30 美国至7月12日当周API原油库存(万桶)

编辑/ping

Global macro

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly before the opening.

U.S. June retail sales remained unchanged from the previous month, estimated to have declined by 0.3%, with a previous value of 0.1% growth. As of the time of writing, three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly before opening.

Following Powell's dovish statements? Goldman Sachs: The Fed should cut rates for the first time in July, not wait until September.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent a significant "dove signal" on Monday, and during his speech, Goldman Sachs chief economist Hazous called on the Fed to cut interest rates at the policy meeting to be held on July 31, rather than waiting until September. In his latest report, he pointed out that inflation has made sufficient progress and has returned to the Fed's long-term target of 2%, which would give the Fed reason to cut interest rates in July.

Fed's Daly poured cold water: Inflation is cooling, but more data is needed for rate cuts.

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said Monday that inflation is falling, which strengthens people's confidence that the rate will fall to the target of 2%. She said at an event, "Inflation is falling, to some extent, people are becoming more and more confident that we are approaching a sustainable pace of reducing the inflation rate to 2%." Daly also stressed, "We have a lot of information to gather before we make any real decisions." She refused to predict when the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates and by how much.

Is the U.S. stock market entering a circulation period? Bank of America: The economy is entering the "golden-haired girl" era, which is bullish for cyclical stocks.

Bank of America said in a latest report on Monday that a lower-than-expected CPI report for June is pushing the "blonde girl" economy into shape, which should benefit a specific sector of the U.S. stock market: cyclical stocks. The report pointed out that as long as economic growth slows down and the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, this will be good news for cyclical stocks in the raw materials, industrial, energy and non-essential consumer goods industries, as well as some technology industries.

Going against the Fed's trend? Wall Street experts: Rates should not be cut this year.

Jim Bianco, a senior Wall Street veteran who has been in the industry for 40 years and president and macro strategist of Bianco Research, said the Fed should not cut rates this year because the U.S. economy is about to pick up again. "I doubt we will cut interest rates this year because I think it is unfounded. The economy is still operating well," he said in a recent interview, adding, "I doubt there will be a rebound in the second half of the year."

Big Mo: Hedge funds' bet on software stocks hits new low.

Morgan Stanley pointed out in a latest report that as tech stocks are being sold off on a large scale, last week's hedge fund exposure to U.S. software stocks hit a new low in years. The bank said, "Last week in the United States, Europe and Asia (excluding Japan), portfolio managers were generally selling stocks. Software stocks were the most net sold, continuing the net selling since the end of April and reducing risk exposure to new lows."

Hot news

Growth tech rose across the board before the market opening, with Tesla, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML Holding up more than 1%.

Gold prices rise, U.S. stock gold stocks rise before the opening.

U.S. stock gold stocks rose before the opening.$Harmony Gold Mining (HMY.US)$up nearly 7%,$Gold Fields (GFI.US)$rose more than 4%,$Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$Harmony Gold Mining rose 0.27%. International gold prices have picked up, with spot gold reaching $2,430 per ounce intraday. In addition, UBS's latest research report points out that investors' interest in "buying gold on dips" is still strong, and there is still room for gold to rise. In May this year, UBS analysts predicted that international gold prices would climb to $2,500 in September and $2,600 by year-end.

Wall Street's most optimistic bulls: Apple is expected to rise to $300.

Loop Capital Markets analysts raised the stock's target price to $300, making it the most bullish on Wall Street, according to financial analysis firm FactSet. At the time of writing, Apple is expected to open a little higher, setting a new high.$Apple (AAPL.US)$The target price of Apple's stocks has been raised to $300, making it the most optimistic bull on Wall Street. $300 is currently the highest target price listed by financial analysis institution FactSet. As of the time of publication, Apple has slightly increased in pre-market trading, and is expected to hit a new high at opening.

Trump's running mate and vice-presidential candidate, Pence, revealed holdings mainly in broad-based and Bitcoin ETFs.

Vice President Pence nominated by Trump mainly invests in US stocks through ETFs, and the top three holdings are broad-based ETFs: SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust (24%), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (24%), and Invesco QQQ Trust (24%). These three ETFs have risen 20.25%, 17.03%, and 6.74% respectively this year. In addition, Pence also holds Bitcoin ETF, Gold ETF (518880.SH), entertainment platform, and ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF(OILK.US). It is worth mentioning that after Trump announced Pence's nomination as Vice President last night, Rumble's stock price rose sharply by 28%, and finally closed up 20%.$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ (24%)$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$And.$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ (24%), these three ETFs have increased by 20.25%, 17.03%, and 6.74% respectively this year.

In addition, Pence also holds Bitcoin ETF$Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$,$Efund Gold ETF (159934.SZ)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$,$GUOZHAIETF (511010.SH)$$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$, entertainment platform$Rumble (RUM.US)$, and crude oil ETF, ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF(OILK.US)$Proshares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy Etf (OILK.US)$.

Amazon Prime Day is coming, institutions: Prime Day sales are expected to reach a new high of $14 billion.

On July 16-17, global e-commerce retail giant$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The annual Gold Member Day (Prime Day) is coming, and this year's Prime Day sales are expected to reach a new level. According to Adobe Analytics, a US e-commerce research institution, shoppers may spend about $14 billion during the two-day Amazon Prime Day shopping event this week, an increase of 10.5% from last year's Prime Day.

Bank of America rose more than 2% before the market, with Q2 revenue of $25.4 billion and plans to increase dividends.

$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Rose more than 2% before market. Bank of America released its Q2 2024 financial report, with net interest income after expenses of $25.4 billion, compared to $25.2 billion in the same period last year, and net income of $6.9 billion, compared to $7.4 billion in the same period last year. The company announced plans to increase ordinary quarterly dividends by 8% to 26 cents per share, subject to board approval.

UnitedHealth fell back before the market and fell by 0.48%, with Q2 revenue slightly exceeding expectations.

$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$US stocks rose briefly before the market, now falling back and down by 0.48%, trading at $512.91. United Health's Q2 2024 revenue was $98.855 billion, compared to $92.903 billion in the same period last year, and market expectations were $98.83 billion.

Morgan Stanley fell more than 2% before the market, with Q2 revenue of $15 billion, exceeding market expectations.

$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Fell more than 2% before the market, trading at $102.65. Q2 2024 revenue was $15 billion, compared to $13.46 billion in the same period last year, and the market expectation was $14.3 billion; Q2 net interest income was $2.07 billion, and market estimates were $1.78 billion.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

Bilibili rose nearly 2% before the market, with impressive performance in new games and many institutions bullish.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$Rose nearly 2% before the market, trading at $16.15. Nomura Securities issued a research report stating that due to the impressive performance of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition", Bilibili's forecast for this year's game revenue growth has been raised to 6%, short-term driving up the stock price of the new game. Nomura raised the company's revenue forecast for 2024-2026 by 0.6% to 1.1%. Bank of Communications International also believes that due to Bilibili's new game exceeding expectations, it has slightly increased the Q2 revenue forecast for this year by 1% to RMB 6.1 billion, an increase of 16% year-on-year.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:00 US May Business Inventory Month-on-month Ratio

22:00 US July NAHB Housing Market Index

Next day

02:45 The director of the Federal Reserve, Powell, speaks

04:30 US crude oil inventory (10000 barrels) by the week of July 12

Editor/ping

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