Global macro

• On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly before the opening.

U.S. June retail sales remained unchanged from the previous month, estimated to have declined by 0.3%, with a previous value of 0.1% growth. As of the time of writing, three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly before opening.

• Following Powell's dovish statements? Goldman Sachs: The Fed should cut rates for the first time in July, not wait until September.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent a significant "dove signal" on Monday, and during his speech, Goldman Sachs chief economist Hazous called on the Fed to cut interest rates at the policy meeting to be held on July 31, rather than waiting until September. In his latest report, he pointed out that inflation has made sufficient progress and has returned to the Fed's long-term target of 2%, which would give the Fed reason to cut interest rates in July.

• Fed's Daly poured cold water: Inflation is cooling, but more data is needed for rate cuts.

Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said Monday that inflation is falling, which strengthens people's confidence that the rate will fall to the target of 2%. She said at an event, "Inflation is falling, to some extent, people are becoming more and more confident that we are approaching a sustainable pace of reducing the inflation rate to 2%." Daly also stressed, "We have a lot of information to gather before we make any real decisions." She refused to predict when the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates and by how much.

• Is the U.S. stock market entering a circulation period? Bank of America: The economy is entering the "golden-haired girl" era, which is bullish for cyclical stocks.

Bank of America said in a latest report on Monday that a lower-than-expected CPI report for June is pushing the "blonde girl" economy into shape, which should benefit a specific sector of the U.S. stock market: cyclical stocks. The report pointed out that as long as economic growth slows down and the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, this will be good news for cyclical stocks in the raw materials, industrial, energy and non-essential consumer goods industries, as well as some technology industries.

• Going against the Fed's trend? Wall Street experts: Rates should not be cut this year.

Jim Bianco, a senior Wall Street veteran who has been in the industry for 40 years and president and macro strategist of Bianco Research, said the Fed should not cut rates this year because the U.S. economy is about to pick up again. "I doubt we will cut interest rates this year because I think it is unfounded. The economy is still operating well," he said in a recent interview, adding, "I doubt there will be a rebound in the second half of the year."

• Big Mo: Hedge funds' bet on software stocks hits new low.

Morgan Stanley pointed out in a latest report that as tech stocks are being sold off on a large scale, last week's hedge fund exposure to U.S. software stocks hit a new low in years. The bank said, "Last week in the United States, Europe and Asia (excluding Japan), portfolio managers were generally selling stocks. Software stocks were the most net sold, continuing the net selling since the end of April and reducing risk exposure to new lows."

Hot news

• Growth tech rose across the board before the market opening, with Tesla, Taiwan Semiconductor, and ASML Holding up more than 1%.

• Gold prices rise, U.S. stock gold stocks rise before the opening.

U.S. stock gold stocks rose before the opening.$Harmony Gold Mining (HMY.US)$up nearly 7%,$Gold Fields (GFI.US)$rose more than 4%,$Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$Harmony Gold Mining rose 0.27%. International gold prices have picked up, with spot gold reaching $2,430 per ounce intraday. In addition, UBS's latest research report points out that investors' interest in "buying gold on dips" is still strong, and there is still room for gold to rise. In May this year, UBS analysts predicted that international gold prices would climb to $2,500 in September and $2,600 by year-end.

• Wall Street's most optimistic bulls: Apple is expected to rise to $300.

Loop Capital Markets analysts raised the stock's target price to $300, making it the most bullish on Wall Street, according to financial analysis firm FactSet. At the time of writing, Apple is expected to open a little higher, setting a new high.$Apple (AAPL.US)$The target price of Apple's stocks has been raised to $300, making it the most optimistic bull on Wall Street. $300 is currently the highest target price listed by financial analysis institution FactSet. As of the time of publication, Apple has slightly increased in pre-market trading, and is expected to hit a new high at opening.

• Trump's running mate and vice-presidential candidate, Pence, revealed holdings mainly in broad-based and Bitcoin ETFs.

Vice President Pence nominated by Trump mainly invests in US stocks through ETFs, and the top three holdings are broad-based ETFs: SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust (24%), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (24%), and Invesco QQQ Trust (24%). These three ETFs have risen 20.25%, 17.03%, and 6.74% respectively this year. In addition, Pence also holds Bitcoin ETF, Gold ETF (518880.SH), entertainment platform, and ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF(OILK.US). It is worth mentioning that after Trump announced Pence's nomination as Vice President last night, Rumble's stock price rose sharply by 28%, and finally closed up 20%.$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ (24%)$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$And.$SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ (24%), these three ETFs have increased by 20.25%, 17.03%, and 6.74% respectively this year.

In addition, Pence also holds Bitcoin ETF$Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$,$Efund Gold ETF (159934.SZ)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$,$GUOZHAIETF (511010.SH)$$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$, entertainment platform$Rumble (RUM.US)$, and crude oil ETF, ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF(OILK.US)$Proshares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy Etf (OILK.US)$.

• Amazon Prime Day is coming, institutions: Prime Day sales are expected to reach a new high of $14 billion.

On July 16-17, global e-commerce retail giant$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The annual Gold Member Day (Prime Day) is coming, and this year's Prime Day sales are expected to reach a new level. According to Adobe Analytics, a US e-commerce research institution, shoppers may spend about $14 billion during the two-day Amazon Prime Day shopping event this week, an increase of 10.5% from last year's Prime Day.

• Bank of America rose more than 2% before the market, with Q2 revenue of $25.4 billion and plans to increase dividends.

$Bank of America (BAC.US)$Rose more than 2% before market. Bank of America released its Q2 2024 financial report, with net interest income after expenses of $25.4 billion, compared to $25.2 billion in the same period last year, and net income of $6.9 billion, compared to $7.4 billion in the same period last year. The company announced plans to increase ordinary quarterly dividends by 8% to 26 cents per share, subject to board approval.

• UnitedHealth fell back before the market and fell by 0.48%, with Q2 revenue slightly exceeding expectations.

$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$US stocks rose briefly before the market, now falling back and down by 0.48%, trading at $512.91. United Health's Q2 2024 revenue was $98.855 billion, compared to $92.903 billion in the same period last year, and market expectations were $98.83 billion.

• Morgan Stanley fell more than 2% before the market, with Q2 revenue of $15 billion, exceeding market expectations.

$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$Fell more than 2% before the market, trading at $102.65. Q2 2024 revenue was $15 billion, compared to $13.46 billion in the same period last year, and the market expectation was $14.3 billion; Q2 net interest income was $2.07 billion, and market estimates were $1.78 billion.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

• China concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

• Bilibili rose nearly 2% before the market, with impressive performance in new games and many institutions bullish.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$Rose nearly 2% before the market, trading at $16.15. Nomura Securities issued a research report stating that due to the impressive performance of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition", Bilibili's forecast for this year's game revenue growth has been raised to 6%, short-term driving up the stock price of the new game. Nomura raised the company's revenue forecast for 2024-2026 by 0.6% to 1.1%. Bank of Communications International also believes that due to Bilibili's new game exceeding expectations, it has slightly increased the Q2 revenue forecast for this year by 1% to RMB 6.1 billion, an increase of 16% year-on-year.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:00 US May Business Inventory Month-on-month Ratio

22:00 US July NAHB Housing Market Index

Next day

02:45 The director of the Federal Reserve, Powell, speaks

04:30 US crude oil inventory (10000 barrels) by the week of July 12

Editor/ping