2024H1 公司营收同增13%，大单品红枣派放量，产品结构逐渐优化，但抖音/零食专营渠道前置费用投放较大，叠加组织架构处于调整阶段，盈利端整体仍承压，受理财投资规模减少影响，2024H1 公司理财和基金投资产生的收益同比减少0.25 亿元，归母净利润预计亏损0.30-0.40 亿元，2023 年同期为亏损0.18 亿元；扣非归母净利润预计亏损0.30-0.40 亿元，2023 年同期为亏损0.52 亿元，同比减亏。其中2024Q2公司营收同增4%，归母净利润预计亏损0.43-0.53 亿元，2023 年同期为亏损0.31 亿元，扣非归母净利润预计亏损0.45-0.55 亿元，2023 年同期为亏损0.42 亿元。On July 9, 2024, I really want you to release the 2024 semi-annual results forecast.
Key points of investment
Steady revenue growth, low upfront costs drive profit
2024H1's revenue also increased by 13%, and the product structure was gradually optimized, but the upfront cost of the Douying/Snack franchise channel was large, and the superposition organizational structure was still under adjustment. The overall profit side was still under pressure. The revenue generated by the reduction in financial investment scale of the 2024H1 company decreased by 0.025 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the net profit from the mother is expected to lose 0.03-0.04 billion yuan for the same period in 2023; net profit not attributable to mother The estimated loss was 0.03-0.04 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 0.052 billion yuan for the same period in 2023, a year-on-year reduction. Among them, the company's revenue in 2024Q2 increased by 4%. Net profit to mother is expected to lose 0.043-0.053 billion yuan, a loss of 0.031 billion yuan for the same period in 2023, an estimated loss of 0.045-0.055 billion yuan after deducting non-attributable net profit, and a loss of 0.042 billion yuan for the same period in 2023.
The potential of the Red Faction continues, and the channel building ideas are clear
By product, the company focuses on building a large single product business. Among them, the 2024H1 Red Xiaopai business has accumulated sales of more than 0.1 billion yuan. At the same time, it is developing a jujube+sesame series of products, doing differentiated marketing, and developing a second profit curve through category innovation. Since 2024, jujube futures prices have declined at a high level, pressure on the cost side has decreased, and profitability is expected to be further optimized. Looking at the sales model, the company adheres to online channel leadership, exploits products through e-commerce interests through Douyin/Kuaishou, strengthens brand promotion actions for online channels such as Douyin, continuously optimizes cost investment and conversion efficiency, and uses channel spillover effects to drive offline channel sales. The company promotes network construction for offline channels, deepens busy cooperation with snacks, makes deep jujube products, and creates a multi-product model. Since 2024, the company has made multi-faceted adjustments to product style, channel strategy, and personnel structure. At this stage, the primary goal is to promote revenue growth, build explosive products and cultivate brands. With the release of scale effects, profitability will steadily increase.
Profit forecasting
We are optimistic about the two-wheel drive of the company's products and channels, and continue to lead growth by adopting the channel strategy of “online leadership, live streaming; offline roots, store marketing; channel innovation, collaborative development” and the big single product strategy. EPS is expected to be 0.08/0.12/0.18 yuan in 2024-2026, and the current stock price is 70/43/29 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating
Risk warning
Macroeconomic downturn risks, rising raw materials risks, new product growth falling short of expectations, etc.