公司考虑提升外购电中新能源发电的占比，积极寻求20 万吨未建电解铝产能指标落地。据2024 年4 月29 日公司披露的投资关系活动记录表，公司未来会考虑更多地使用光伏发电，提升外购电中新能源发电的占比。公司有20 万吨尚未建设的电解铝合规产能指标，会积极寻求未建产能指标的落地。Core views:
The price of aluminum rose in 24Q2, and the advantages of integration stabilized the company's costs. The forecast is that net profit to mother will increase 88% month-on-month, better than expected. The company released a performance forecast. In 24Q2, the company forecast to achieve net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, +88% month-on-month and +161% year-on-year. The main reasons for the significant month-on-month increase in performance were:
The increase in aluminum prices and alumina prices in 24Q2 led to an increase in the performance of the electrolytic aluminum and alumina sectors. According to Wind, 24Q2, the average price of SHFE aluminum rose 8% month-on-month to 20,647 yuan/ton, the average price of alumina rose 8% to 3,633 yuan/ton, the average price of northwest anode rose 1% month-on-month, and the average price of thermal coal in Hami remained flat month-on-month. It is estimated that the gross profit of a ton of electrolytic aluminum was +946 yuan/ton month-on-month, while the price of bauxite in Guinea rose only 1.8% month-on-month.
The company is considering increasing the share of outsourced electricity generation from new energy sources, and is actively seeking the implementation of the 0.2 million ton unbuilt electrolytic aluminum production capacity target. According to the record table of investment-related activities disclosed by the company on April 29, 2024, the company will consider using more photovoltaic power generation in the future to increase the share of outsourced electricity generation from new energy sources. The company has a compliant production capacity target of 0.2 million tons of electrolytic aluminum that has not yet been built, and will actively seek implementation of the unbuilt production capacity target.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 0.93/0.96/0.98 yuan/share. Considering that the company has a stable low cost advantage, improved resource guarantee capacity, and the gradual release of aluminum foil for energy batteries, the company is given 14 times PE in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value of 12.98 yuan/share, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The macroeconomy fluctuated greatly, and aluminum prices fell sharply; costs such as coal prices and bauxite prices rose sharply; certification and production of new battery aluminum foil projects fell short of expectations.
