FUTU Morning Post

U.S. stock market preview: interest rate puzzle to be solved! Powell will engage with members of Congress tonight; most semiconductor stocks continue to rise before market opens, with Intel up nearly 3%.

Futu News · Jul 9 20:06

全球宏观

周二，三大股指期货盘前齐涨

美降息谜题待解！鲍威尔今晚国会山之行将如何“舌战议员”？

北京时间今晚22点，鲍威尔将率先在参议院银行委员会发表半年度货币政策证词；在明晚同一时间，鲍威尔还将造访众议院金融服务委员会。一方面，本周的听证会很可能是鲍威尔在11月美国总统大选前，最后一次向国会发表的公开讲话。另一方面，鲍威尔在今晚两日的讲话中，究竟会如何看待“下半年能否降息以及如何降息”的话题，同样将备受瞩目。

美股年内第35次创新高，华尔街多家投行泼冷水：回调可能就在眼前

美股周一再次收涨，今年来标普500指数已经第35次创下收盘历史新高。然而，包括摩根士丹利、高盛、花旗在内的多家机构却预计美股接下来可能将出现回调。高盛策略师斯科特•鲁伯纳表示，如果美股企业业绩令人失望，他预计美股在8月之前两周将迎来痛苦期，他已经在为此提前做准备。摩根士丹利的威尔逊表示：“从现在到年底，美股进一步上涨的可能性非常低，远低于正常水平。”他认为，到今年年底收盘时，标普500指数高于目前水平的可能性仅有20%至25%之间。

“聪明钱”加速调转方向：对冲基金抛售科技股，以五个月最快速度涌入能源和材料板块

高盛主经纪商业务纪录显示，在7月首周、即上周，全球股市总体三周来首次出现小幅买入，多头买入规模超过空头卖出，宏观产品（即 ETF）和个股均呈净买入，分别由空头回补和多头买入主导。分地区看，主要地区的股市大多净买入，以欧洲和亚洲为首。分板块看，工业、金融和能源是全球净买入最多的板块，而通信服务、信息技术（IT）和公用事业的净卖出规模居首。

美民主党陷入“内乱”？特朗普和华尔街都预测：拜登不太可能放弃竞选

大多数人可能没有预料到，在6月27日美国总统竞选的首场电视辩论后，美国大选选情竟然发生了这么巨大的转折——由于拜登的“灾难级”辩论表现，民主党内多位精英议员集体施压，呼吁拜登主动放弃竞选。但是，美国投行Stifel首席华盛顿政策策略师加德纳（Brian Gardner）认为，拜登主动放弃竞选的可能性只有40%。而同时，拜登的对手——美国前总统特朗普也预测，拜登的“自负心”会让他坚持竞选。

日经指数创历史新高，芯片相关股票追随美国同行上涨

$日经225 (.N225.JP)$周二再创记录新高，收涨1.96%，至41,580点。“市场预期鲍威尔的言论将暗示政策放松，这提振了美国芯片股，日本芯片制造商也跟随这一趋势，"Phillip证券日本交易主管Takehiko Masuzawa表示。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前普涨

半导体板块盘前多数延续升势，英特尔涨近3%，英伟达涨超1%

特斯拉九连涨了！但华尔街分歧很大

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$九连涨后，华尔街分析师对其股价未来走势分歧相当大，他们对特斯拉的最高目标价和最低目标价之间相差约200美元，差值相当于周一收盘价的80%，而同为“七巨头”的苹果这一比率约为40%。像是AB Bernstein的股票分析师认为，特斯拉股价可能还会上涨一段时间，但这就像早前的meme股狂热一样，是散户非理性炒作股价的结果，特斯拉的估值与基本面是脱节的。而Wedbush分析师Dan Ives表示，特斯拉是市场上最被低估的人工智能公司，未来特斯拉的AI业务价值可能会增加1万亿美元。

英特尔与AMD携手大涨！“AI后进者们”开启股价上攻之势？

今年以来股价表现大幅落后于英伟达等芯片巨头的$英特尔 (INTC.US)$股价强势上涨超6%，实属罕见。自3月以来股价大幅走弱的$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$则连续多日大举反弹，周一涨幅接近4%。此前华尔街知名投资机构Melius Research发布报告称，AI领域的“后进者们”，比如AMD 、苹果和英特尔股价涨势可能将在今年下半年开始追赶英伟达等人工智能领域的绝对领军者。截至发稿，英特尔盘前再涨近3%。

诺和诺德盘前跌近2%，研究显示竞争对手减肥药效果好于公司

$诺和诺德 (NVO.US)$盘前跌近2%，$礼来 (LLY.US)$股份公司在最近的一项减重药物竞争中获胜。研究发现，服用礼来的Mounjaro的患者体重降低程度比诺和诺德的Ozempic的患者更多。据悉，Mounjaro的用户在三个月内的平均体重减轻了5.9％，而Ozempic的用户只有3.6％。在六个月时，Mounjaro的用户平均减重10.1％，而Ozempic的用户仅有5.8％。

索尼盘前涨超4%，日本主要半导体制造商计划投资约5万亿日元以增产

$索尼 (SONY.US)$盘前涨超4%，报90.1美元；索尼日股今日涨5%。消息面上，日经225指数今日盘中涨超2.4%再创历史新高，主要得益于科技股表现强劲，同时日元疲软也提振了出口股，并激发了外国投资者对日本资产的购买热情。据日经亚洲，包括索尼集团和三菱电机在内的日本主要半导体制造商计划到2029年投资约5万亿日元（约合310亿美元），以提高功率器件和图像传感器的产量。

埃克森美孚预警次季盈利低于市场预期

$埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$发出第二季业绩预警，表示由于炼油业务边际利润回落，加上天然气价格下滑，季度盈利可能较市场预期少。该公司最新估计，第二季每股经调整盈利介乎1.5至2.4美元，或相当于83亿美元，较市场目前估计低17%。根据公告，炼油业务边际利润率下滑，对第二季业绩的负面效应预料介乎11亿至15亿美元；天然气贡献预料由去年的46亿美元增至62亿美元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数上扬

蔚来、小鹏等自研智驾芯片将流片

据媒体，新造车公司们筹谋4年的自研芯片，终于进入流片阶段，上车时间也被提上议程。有知情人士透露，$蔚来 (NIO.US)$自研的智能驾驶芯片「神玑NX9031」已经流片，“目前正在测试。”流片，意味着芯片从设计阶段转向实际制造，这是芯片规模量产与商业的关键前提。按照规划，神玑9031将于2025年一季度首搭在蔚来旗舰轿车ET9上。“芯片团队已经领了军令状，明年新车ET9一定要上神玑9031，压力很大。”同时，据了解，$小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$自研的智驾芯片已经送去流片，“预计8月回片。”

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

18:00 美国6月NFIB小型企业信心指数

20:55 美国至7月6日当周红皮书商业零售销售年率

21:15 美联储理事巴尔受邀在美联储主办的一场活动上发表讲话

22:00 美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会发表半年度货币政策证词

23:30 美国至7月9日1年期国债竞拍-得标利率

编辑/new

Global macro

Before the opening of the futures market on Tuesday, the three major stock index futures all rose.

The mystery of the US interest rate cut remains to be seen! How will Powell "fight with Congress" during his trip to Capitol Hill tonight?

At 22:00 tonight, Beijing time, Powell will first give a semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee; at the same time tomorrow night, Powell will also visit the House Financial Services Committee. On the one hand, this week's hearing is likely to be Powell's last public speech to Congress before the November US presidential election. On the other hand, how Powell views the topic of "whether interest rates can be cut in the second half of the year and how to cut them" in his speech today will also be widely watched.

US stocks hit a new high for the 35th time this year, but many Wall Street investment banks pour cold water: a pullback may be just around the corner.

US stocks rose again on Monday, and the S&P 500 index has set a new record high for the 35th time this year. However, many institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, predict that the US stock market may experience a pullback next. Goldman Sachs strategist Scott Rubner said that if corporate performance disappoints, he expects the US stock market to have two painful weeks before August, and he has prepared for this in advance. Wilson of Morgan Stanley said: "From now until the end of the year, the possibility of further gains in US stocks is very low, far below normal levels." He believes that by the end of this year, the probability that the S&P 500 index will be higher than the current level is only between 20% and 25%.

"Smart Money" accelerates the change of direction: Hedge funds are selling technology stocks and rushing into the energy and materials sectors at the fastest pace in five months.

Goldman Sachs' primary brokerage business record shows that global stock markets saw a small net buying for the first time in three weeks during the first week of July, that is, last week. Macro products (i.e. ETFs) and individual stocks are both in net buying, dominated by short covering and long buying. Looking at different regions, most major markets are net buying, with Europe and Asia in the lead. In terms of sectors, industrial, financial, and energy sectors are the most net bought sectors globally, while communications services, information technology (IT), and utilities are net sold the most.

Is the US Democratic Party in "turmoil"? Trump and Wall Street both predict that Biden is unlikely to drop out of the race.

Most people may not have expected that after the first TV debate of the US presidential election on June 27th, the US election situation would undergo such a huge reversal-due to Biden's "disastrous" debating performance, several elite Democratic lawmakers launched a collective pressure, asking Biden to drop out of the race actively. However, Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist for the US investment bank Stifel, believes that the possibility of Biden voluntarily dropping out of the race is only 40%. At the same time, Biden's opponent, the former US president Trump also predicted that Biden's "arrogance" will make him insist on running for president.

The Nikkei index hit a new historical high, and semiconductor-related stocks followed their US counterparts and rose.

$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$On Tuesday, it hit a record high and rose 1.96% to 41,580 points. "The market expects Powell's remarks to imply a relaxation of policies, which boosts US chip stocks. Japanese chip manufacturers are also following this trend," said Takehiko Masuzawa, chief trader for Phillip securities in Japan.

Hot news

Growth tech stocks rose across the board before the market opened.

Most semiconductor sub-sectors continued to rise before the market opened, with Intel up nearly 3% and Nvidia up more than 1%.

Tesla has risen for nine consecutive days, but there is a great deal of disagreement on Wall Street.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$After nine consecutive days of gains, Wall Street analysts have quite different opinions on its future stock price trends. The difference between their highest target price and lowest target price is about 200 US dollars, which is equivalent to 80% of Monday's closing price. The same ratio for Apple, also one of the "Seven Giants," is about 40%. AB Bernstein's stock analyst believes that Tesla's stock price may continue to rise for a period of time, but this is like the previous meme stock frenzy, which is the result of irrational speculation by retail investors. Tesla's valuation is out of touch with fundamentals. However, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that Tesla is the most undervalued AI company on the market and its AI business value may increase by 1 trillion US dollars in the future.

Intel and AMD rose sharply together! Are the "AI laggards" beginning to rise in stock price?

Its stock price performance has been significantly behind that of chip giants such as Nvidia this year.$Intel (INTC.US)$The stock price has risen strongly by more than 6%, which is rare. Its stock price has been weak since March, but it has rebounded for several consecutive days. Previously, the well-known Wall Street investment institution Melius Research released a report stating that the stock prices of the "laggards" in the AI field, such as AMD, Apple, and Intel, may begin to catch up with absolute leaders in the artificial intelligence field such as Nvidia starting in the second half of this year. As of press time, Intel rose nearly 3% before the market opened.$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Novo Nordisk fell nearly 2% before the market opened. Studies have shown that competitors' weight-loss drugs are more effective than the company's Ozempic.

It fell nearly 2% before the market opened. The company won a recent competition for weight loss drugs. Research found that patients taking Lilly's Mounjaro lost more weight than those taking Novo Nordisk's Ozempic. It is reported that the average weight loss of Mounjaro users in three months was 5.9%, while the users of Ozempic had only 3.6%. After six months, the average weight loss of Mounjaro users was 10.1%, while the users of Ozempic only had 5.8%.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$The company's stock fell nearly 2% before the market opened.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$In a recent competition of weight-loss drugs, the company was defeated by its competitors. Research found that patients taking Lilly's Mounjaro lost more weight than those taking Novo Nordisk's Ozempic.

Sony rose more than 4% before the market, and major semiconductor manufacturers in Japan plan to invest about 5 trillion yen to increase production.

$Sony (SONY.US)$Before the market opened, it rose more than 4% to $90.1. Sony's Japanese stocks rose 5% today. On the news front, the Nikkei 225 index rose more than 2.4% in intraday trading today, reaching a new all-time high, mainly due to the strong performance of technology stocks. At the same time, the weakness of the yen has also boosted export stocks, and stimulated foreign investors' enthusiasm for Japanese assets. According to Nikkei Asia, major Japanese semiconductor manufacturers, including Sony and Mitsubishi Electric, plan to invest about 5 trillion yen (approximately $31 billion) by 2029 to increase the output of power devices and image sensors.

ExxonMobil issues warning that Q2 profits will be lower than expected by the market.

$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Issued a warning for the second quarter results, stating that due to the decline in margin profit of the refining business and the decline in natural gas prices, quarterly profits may be lower than market expectations. The company's latest estimate is that adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter are expected to range from $1.5 to $2.4, or approximately $8.3 billion, which is 17% lower than the market's current estimate. According to the announcement, the negative effect of the decline in the margin profit rate of the refining business on the second quarter performance is expected to range from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion; the contribution of natural gas is expected to increase from $4.6 billion last year to $6.2 billion.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

Most popular China concept stocks rose before the market opens.

Nio Inc, XiaoPeng and other self-developed intelligent driving chips have entered the mass production phase.

According to reports, new car companies have been planning self-developed chips for four years, and they have finally entered the mass production phase, and the time to get on board has also been put on the agenda. An informed source revealed that the self-developed intelligent driving chip "Shenji NX9031" has been mass-produced, and is currently being tested. Mass production means that chips have been transformed from the design stage to actual manufacturing, which is a critical prerequisite for chip-scale production and commercialization. According to the plan, Shenji 9031 will be first installed on NIO's flagship sedan ET9 in the first quarter of 2025. "The chip team has already made a vow that the new car ET9 must use Shenji 9031 next year. The pressure is great." At the same time, it is understood that the self-developed intelligent driving chip has been sent for mass production, and is expected to return in August. $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$The self-developed intelligent driving chip "Shenji NX9031" has been mass-produced and is currently being tested. Mass production means that chips have been transformed from the design stage to actual manufacturing, which is a critical prerequisite for chip-scale production and commercialization. According to the plan, Shenji 9031 will be first installed on NIO's flagship sedan ET9 in the first quarter of 2025. At the same time, it is understood that $XPeng (XPEV.US)$The self-developed intelligent driving chip has been sent for mass production and is expected to return in August.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

18:00 US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

20:55 US Red Book business retail sales annual rate through July 6th

21:15 Federal Reserve Director Bario is invited to speak at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve

22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee

23:30 US Treasury bond auction for 1 year period ending July 9

Editor/new

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