Today, the three major A-share indexes staged a counterattack, with the CSI 1000 Index up 2.2%, leading the major indexes.
Guotai Fund CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF rose more than 3%, Penghua Fund 1000 ETF Enhanced, Tianhong Fund 1000 Enhanced ETF, Huaxia Fund CSI 1000 Growth ETF, GF Fund CSI 1000 Index ETF, Southern Fund CSI 1000 ETF, Huaxia Fund CSI 1000 ETF, and CMB Fund 1000 ETF Enhanced rose more than 2%.
As the noon closing approached, several 1000 ETFs saw a surge in trading volume, with the Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF, and GF CSI 1000 ETF having a trading amount exceeding the whole day yesterday.
This morning, the trading volume of the Southern CSI 1000 ETF reached 1.291 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the last half hour before the morning closing was 0.68 billion yuan. Yesterday, its trading volume was 0.786 billion yuan.
Starting at 11:00 today, the trading volume of Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF suddenly increased, and the trading amount in the last half hour before the morning closing was 0.335 billion yuan, and the morning trading amount was 0.713 billion yuan, exceeding yesterday's 0.545 billion yuan.
The four largest CSI 1000 ETFs with the highest trading volume had a total turnover of over 2 billion yuan this morning, with the Southern CSI 1000 ETF having a trading amount of 1.29 billion yuan this morning, second only to the Huatai Bairen Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF among stock ETFs.
From the closing, the Southern Fund CSI 1000 ETF had a total turnover of over 2 billion, and the Huaxia Fund CSI 1000 ETF had a total turnover of over 1 billion today.
In terms of funds, the Huatai Bairen Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, 300 ETF E Fund, Huaxia 300 ETF, and Jiashi Fund Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF had a net inflow of over 4.2 billion funds on July 8th. As of July 8th, the net inflow of funds into the above four Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETFs was over 18.8 billion in July.
Since July, the CSI 1000 ETF has not received significant fund inflows. As of July 8th, GF Fund CSI 1000 ETF received 0.233 billion fund inflows, and the fund's funds tracking the CSI 1000 ETF did not have significant inflows.
In the first half of this year, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes had the largest decline.
Since the release of the new "Nine National Regulations", the stock market system reform has begun, the high-quality development of the stock market has been improved, and the risk appetite of investors for performance-differentiated stocks, junk stocks, and shell resources has significantly decreased, and the risk appetite of high-priced small-cap stocks has significantly weakened. In the stock-level game, the stock market has characteristics such as low trading volume, repeated switching of hot spots, and insufficient sustainability of the upward trend.
From the current market sentiment, Guotai Junan expressed that the overall trading activity of A shares has approached historically low levels, suppressing the market performance of small and medium-sized stocks. The total turnover of A shares is 3.05 trillion, and the average daily turnover is only 610.7 billion yuan. The corresponding historical percentile ranks of the past 3/5 years are 10.94%/0.66%, which is equivalent to the level of the market after a long period of adjustment in the second half of 2019. At present, the overall turnover activity has reached its lowest level in nearly three years. Looking at the situation of different market value structures, the average daily turnover of the CSI 1000 and CNI 2000 indexes is 110.4/168.9 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding percentile ranks in the past year are 7.69%/5.77%. The trading activity of major small-cap indexes has also reached a low level in nearly a year.
As the margin of safety of small and medium-cap indexes declines, Guotai Junan believes that after the release of the 2024 interim report, the safety margin of small and medium-cap indexes will be further increased. At present, the valuation of small-cap stocks is already at a relatively low level. On July 5th, the closing price of the CSI 1000/CNI 2000/Wind Microcap Index corresponded to the five-year percentile of PE (TTM, excluding negative values). The ratios were 2.36%/1.57%/0.79%, and the overall valuation of small-cap stocks was already at a relatively low level. With the disclosure of the 2024 interim report and the continuous recovery of the performance of small and medium-sized listed companies, the safety margin of small and medium-cap indexes will be further strengthened.
Investor confidence in small and medium-cap stocks is in the process of increasing, and the safety margin of valuations is high. The disclosure of the interim report will further verify the recovery of profitability of small and medium-sized market capitalization enterprises, and the combination of the three is expected to promote the oversold rebound of small and medium-cap stocks in Q3 2024. With the adjustment of large-cap styles such as dividends and the safety margin of valuations, the risk appetite of small and medium-cap investors has increased. With the narrowing of the gap between the profitability of small and medium-sized market capitalization enterprises and large cap stocks, the 2024 interim report is expected to catalyze the oversold rebound of small and medium-cap stocks.
From the perspective of the overall A-share market, as of July 8th, the overall PB median of A-shares is at a historical percentile of 0.39%. The last time the valuation percentile was below 1% was in December 2018. A-shares then quickly stabilized in the short term in 2019. China Merchants Securities analysis believes that historically, if the A-share valuation level can stabilize rapidly in the short term, then there is a large space for rebound in the future; if it cannot stabilize rapidly, then the subsequent downside space is not large, and there can still be a high positive return over a longer period.
