Q2 公司实现归母净利2.09~2.29 亿元， 同比+31.5%~44.2%， 环比+8.9%~19.3%；实现扣非净利1.7~1.9 亿元，同比+15.3%~28.8%。公司二季度在原材料上涨，海运费上升等不利因素的影响下，归母净利仍优于乘用车及重卡行业的整体表现（Q2 销量同比-5%/-5%，环比+3%/-8%），我们认为或系公司芯片液冷产品配套北美客户、国内头部新势力等实现快速放量，兑现“第三曲线”增量；同时公司通过购/设计降本、产线效率提高等手段，降本增效不断推进，推动国内外业务盈利向好。24H1 achieved net profit of 4 to 0.42 billion yuan, +40.1% to 47.1% of the same period, Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. issued a semi-annual performance forecast. 24H1 is expected to achieve net profit to mother of 4 to 0.42 billion yuan, an increase of 40.1% to 47.1% year on year, achieving deducted non-net profit of 3.5 to 0.37 billion yuan, +35.4% to 43.1% year over year. It is in line with our previous expectations (“Interim Report Forecast: Going Overseas + Strong Products, High Dual Drive Growth” released on 2024/7/2).
We maintain our previous forecast and expect the company's net profit to mother for 2024-2026 to be 0.89/1.15/1.43 billion yuan, respectively. Comparatively, the company Wind agreed to expect an average PE value of 17.3 times in 24, giving the company 17.3 times PE in 24, with a target price of 18.68 yuan (previous value 21.49 yuan), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Q2 The year-on-month growth rate of net profit to the mother was superior to the industry's performance
Q2 The company achieved net profit of 2.09 to 0.229 billion yuan, +31.5% ~ 44.2% year over year, +8.9% ~ 19.3% month on month; realized deducted non-net profit of 1.7 to 0.19 billion yuan, or +15.3% ~ 28.8% year over year. Under the influence of adverse factors such as rising raw materials and rising shipping costs, the company's net profit in the second quarter was still superior to the overall performance of the passenger car and heavy truck industry (Q2 sales volume -5%/-5%, month-on-month +3%/-8%). We believe that the company's chip liquid cooling products may support North American customers, leading domestic forces, etc. to achieve rapid volume release and fulfill the “third curve” increase; at the same time, the company continued to advance cost reduction and efficiency by reducing purchase/design costs and improving production line efficiency.
The “third curve” is expected to continue to release growth, and the “fourth curve” brings new opportunities for growth. The company uses the advantages of automotive thermal management technology to enter the fields of energy storage, power transformation, overcharging, data centers, etc., and has competitive advantages in technology, cost, and product quality. Currently, in the company's digital and energy heat management business, heat pump board replacement products are closely tied to major customers; data center server liquid cooling has achieved customer “0-1” breakthroughs, and container immersion products for overseas customers have also made progress; the energy storage supercharged liquid cooling unit business focuses on leading customers, and ongoing orders continue to expand, and the “third curve” is expected to contribute 24 years of revenue growth.
In addition, the company is actively seeking the “fourth curve”, development in the field of computing power and artificial intelligence. It is actively carrying out cutting-edge technology research, laying out relevant technology patents, or opening up space for the company's medium- to long-term growth.
Global business expansion is accelerating, which is expected to gradually release profits
The company has clarified the business policies and goals of internationalization and increased industrial overseas. Since December '23, it has added a number of overseas fixed locations such as air conditioning boxes and oversized cooling modules for commercial equipment, and the overseas production capacity layout is sufficient:
The first phase of the Mexican plant's production capacity of 23Q4 has been reversed, and the second phase of production capacity will be mass-produced within the year; the Polish plant will successively introduce heat pump plate replacement, energy storage liquid cooling units, and battery liquid cooling production lines to support North American customers in Germany and medium batch models of Jaguar Land Rover, and focus on expanding local European customers. I am optimistic about the gradual release of the company's overseas business profits.
Risk warning: The release of digital and energy thermal management orders fell short of expectations; demand for passenger cars fell short of expectations.
