但现在，新兴市场央行正走向宽松周期的尾声，因为它们可以降息的幅度受到各种限制。BlackRock Investment Research said in a report on Monday that some central banks in emerging markets are suspending interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation, and policymakers in developed markets may also find that they need to maintain higher interest rates (Higher for Longer) for a longer period of time.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that BlackRock Investment Research Institute (BII) said in a report on Monday that some central banks in emerging markets are suspending interest rate cuts due to concerns about inflation, and policymakers in developed markets may also find that they need to maintain higher interest rates (Higher for Longer) for a longer period of time.
BII chief Jean Boivin said that monetary policymakers in emerging market countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Poland have lowered interest rates in the face of cooling inflation and slowing economic growth. In developed markets, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have already cut interest rates once this year. The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates in 2024.
But now, emerging market central banks are coming to the end of an easing cycle, because the extent to which they can cut interest rates is limited by various means.
He said, “Emerging market central banks can only go this far in cutting interest rates, especially when developed market central banks (especially the Federal Reserve) keep interest rates stable or cut interest rates slowly.” Policy differences over the US dollar may put pressure on the local currency and may damage some inflation-sensitive economies caused by the weakening of the local currency.
BII said that Brazil's central bank has cut the key Selic interest rate from 13.75% to 10.5%, but suspended interest rate cuts in June, citing doubts about the impact of loose government fiscal policies on inflation. Poland has kept interest rates at 5.75% since October last year, after government measures aimed at protecting households from high energy costs came to an end due to concerns about inflation.
Boivin said, “We saw that after the pandemic, both emerging and developed markets faced structural factors of rising inflation, including rising public debt and supply chain restructuring due to geopolitical tensions.”
However, he said that maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time is not necessarily bad news for risky assets. He cited large US technology stocks and the broader US stock market as examples, which surged to record highs, even though bond yields climbed due to lower expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
