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鲁西化工(000830):上半年净利同比大增 丁辛醇贡献主要增量

Luxi Chemical (000830): Net profit surged year-on-year in the first half of the year, butyl octanol contributed the main increase

國信證券 ·  Jul 8, 2024 23:51

Luxi Chemical's net profit for the first half of 2024 was 11 to 1.2 billion yuan, a significant increase over the previous year. Luxi Chemical announced its 2024 semi-annual performance forecast. Net profit due to mother is expected to reach 11 to 1.2 billion yuan, +467.04% to +518.59% year over year, and net profit excluding non-return to mother is estimated to be 11.2 to 1.22 billion yuan, or +539.74% to +596.86% year over year, with a significant increase. Basic earnings per share are expected to be 0.578 yuan/share to 0.630 yuan/share, compared to 0.102 yuan/share in the same period last year. Among them, the company's net profit for the second quarter of 2024 was 5.32 to 0.632 billion yuan, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit, and -6% to +11% month-on-month.

The company's main business includes new chemical materials, basic chemicals, fertilizer products and other businesses. New chemical materials and basic chemicals are the main revenue and profit sources of Luxi Chemical. The combined revenue of the two businesses in 2023 accounted for 88% of the company's total revenue, and the total gross profit accounted for 94% of the total gross profit. However, the fertilizer business accounts for a relatively small share. In 2023, the fertilizer business accounts for 10% of revenue, gross profit accounts for only 5%, and gross margin is also relatively low.

The increase in the company's net profit to mother was mainly due to an increase in operating rate and an increase in gross profit for some products. The company strictly focuses on safety, environmental protection and energy saving control, and the production equipment operates efficiently, and the operating rate has increased significantly over the same period last year. At the same time, due to factors such as supply and demand in the market, the sales price of some products rose year on year, and the purchase price of raw materials decreased year on year, so the gross profit of some products increased.

Price spreads for some main products widened, and butyl octanol helped increase profits in the first half of the year. In the second quarter of 2024, the average market prices of n-butanol/octanol/polycarbonate/caustic soda were 8229/9822/15317/975 yuan/ton, respectively, +11%/-16%/+2%/-1%, month-on-month, -2%/-1%/+4%/+2% month-on-month; price difference +20%/+4%/-0.5%/-9%, month-on-month. The rise in but-octanol boom was one of the main drivers of the company's profit growth in the first half of the year. In 2019-2023, the compound growth rate of n-butanol and octanol production in China was 6%, and the compound growth rate of apparent consumption was 5% and 7%, respectively. There was little new production capacity in the domestic polyol industry in 2023. Coupled with centralized parking and maintenance, the market supply was tight, inventories remained low, and demand was stable, driving the high prices of n-butanol and octanol in the second half of 2023. Since entering 2024, the supply side of the market has gradually relaxed, and the prices of n-butanol and octanol have recovered from the high levels in 2023. Demand for n-butanol and octanol is expected to continue to grow as demand from real estate, home appliances, automobiles and other industries picks up.

It currently has 0.75 million tons of polyol production capacity, including 0.3 million tons of n-butanol and 0.45 million tons of octanol, all of which rank among the top domestic manufacturers, accounting for 11% and 15% of the market share, respectively.

Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; raw material prices rise; industry competition increases risks; project commissioning falls short of expectations; safety and environmental risks; policy risks, etc.

Investment advice: The company has a rich industrial chain and high profit flexibility. We maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 1.699/1.928/2.394 billion yuan, with earnings per share of 0.89/1.01/1.25 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 13.2/11.6/9.3X, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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