Global macro
On Monday, the three major equity index futures rose before the market.
A series of important events followed in the US stocks: the release of inflation data and the beginning of the financial report season, and the market expects a signal of interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
As employment growth slows, investors will closely watch the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June released on Thursday, as the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increases. The testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Tuesday in the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee semi-annual hearing will also be a focus of investors. The market expects him to reiterate the need for further confirmation of the slowdown in inflation trend, implying that the Federal Reserve is not considering cutting interest rates for now.
Is the pressure high in the U.S. stock market? The strategist says the upcoming earnings season will be crucial!
According to an index compiled by Citigroup, with the start of the second financial report season, analysts have revised their earnings expectations upward more times than downward. Meanwhile, data compiled by foreign media shows that the profit expectations for the US stock market over the next 12 months have reached the highest level in history. "Given the high growth expectations, the market may need to see higher growth expectations in order for US stocks to maintain recent gains or even rise further, " Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a report. "The problem is that even though the basic trend is positive and market expectations can be met, valuations indicate that buyers will have higher expectations for this."
Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds buy csi commodity equity index stocks at the fastest rate in five months.
According to a report by Goldman Sachs, hedge funds bought commodity-sensitive stocks at the fastest pace in five months during the week ended July 5. Goldman Sachs said energy and raw material stocks, container and packaging companies, metal and mining companies attracted hedge funds' interest, and energy and raw material stocks were one of the most heavily bought sectors by Goldman Sachs' institutional brokerage last week. The report said that hedge funds returned to the global stock market last week, with buying volumes larger than selling volumes for the first time in three weeks.
Are bank stocks 'stable enough'? The cost of hedging large bank stocks on Wall Street has dropped to a multi-year low.
$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$, $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ and $Citigroup (C.US)$Traders are confident as Bank of America kicks off the financial report season on Friday. These three stocks have risen more than 22% year-to-date, but the options market has shown almost no concern about the possibility of a bearish trend. According to compiled data, the hedging cost indexes of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo & Co stocks are hovering near their lowest levels since 2021, while Citigroup's hedging costs are below the annual average.
Surprise victory for left-wing alliance in French election - hung Parliament is in sight.
On Sunday local time, the French election results have been revealed: according to exit polls, the left-wing alliance surprisingly leads the far-right and has become the largest single party in France, but no political party has won the majority of seats, which means that France will have a hung Parliament and may face a political deadlock. Now France will have a severely divided Parliament, where the three major party groups - left, centre and far-right - will share the seats in the Parliament, and their governance programs are completely different and they have no tradition of cooperation.
Hot news
Most of the popular technology stocks are up before the market.
Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 3% before the market, creating a new high in intraday trading.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Before the market, stocks rose 3.48% to $190.4, creating a new high in intraday trading. According to a report from Morgan Stanley, according to the supply chain survey, most of Taiwan Semiconductor's customers have agreed to raise foundry prices in exchange for reliable supply, and it is estimated that Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin will rise to 55.1% by 2025 and reach 59.3% in 2026. Recently, the news of price increases in the semiconductor industry chain has become more frequent, covering manufacturers such as Qualcomm, Taiwan Semiconductor, SMIC, etc, and covering IC design, chip foundry, and other links.
Intel rose nearly 4% before the market and released a new generation of data center immersive liquid cooling solutions.
$Intel (INTC.US)$The stock rose 3.84% before the market to $33.25. Recently, Intel released a new generation of data center immersive liquid cooling solutions, opening a new chapter in energy efficiency. Currently, the solution has passed the Proof of Concept (POC) test and achieved the expected effect.
Industry insiders: Apple has increased its iPhone 16 series stocking target to around 90 million units this year.
According to the media, from$Apple (AAPL.US)$According to industry chain company insiders, the target guidance for Apple's iPhone 16 series for this year has been slightly raised. After the upward adjustment, the target guidance for the iPhone 16 series for this year is about 90 million units. Another insider from an Apple industry chain company said that Apple has indeed slightly raised the target guidance for the iPhone 16 series. Apple industry chain company executives analyzed that during the 618 e-commerce promotion period in June, Apple adopted a discount promotion strategy. After the iPhone 15 series was discounted, sales increased significantly, which may have boosted Apple's sales expectations for the iPhone 16 series.
Koss Corp fell more than 11% before the market, and it is speculated that retail investors led by "Roaring Kitten" will buy the stock.
$Koss Corp (KOSS.US)$Pre-market trading of US stocks fell more than 11%, at $11.88; the stock surged more than 25% last week. On the news side, Keith Gill, also known as Roaring Kitty, who has been given the nickname of "the leader of US stock retail investors", posted a mysterious post on social media, causing some followers to speculate that he may have bought stocks of Koss Corp around July 4th.
Morphic, a biopharmaceutical company, is expected to be acquired by Eli Lilly and Co? Shares of Morphic rose over 75% pre-market.
Biopharmaceutical Company$Morphic (MORF.US)$Pre-market increase of more than 75%, according to Bloomberg reports.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$Morphic will be acquired for a cash price of $57 per share. The valuation of this trade is approximately $3.2 billion. The transaction is not subject to any financing conditions and is expected to be completed in the third quarter.
Paramount Group pre-market trading up over 7%, board agreed to merge with Skydance, estimated value of the deal is over $8 billion.
$Paramount Global-A (PARAA.US)$Pre-market trading up 7.47%, at $22. Paramount Group announced that the board unanimously agreed to the acquisition offer put forth by Skydance, a media group controlled by the Ellison family, founder of Oracle. Paramount A shareholders will receive $23 per share in cash or stock, while B shareholders will receive $15 per share. The entire transaction values Paramount at over $8 billion, including a $4.2 billion investment made by the Ellison family and Redbird Capital, as well as an initial investment of $1.5 billion from a merger group called New Paramount.
Boeing agrees to acknowledge charges of fraud conspiracy in fatal plane crash investigation.
US Department of Justice officials: $Boeing (BA.US)$They agree to acknowledge charges of fraud conspiracy in the investigation of the fatal aircraft crash. As part of the agreement, Boeing will pay a criminal fine of $0.2436 billion. The agreement covers inappropriate conduct prior to the 737 MAX crash and does not provide immunity for the accident on January 5th. The Boeing Board of Directors will meet with families of victims in the MAX plane crash as part of a request for the agreement. Boeing will have to invest at least $0.455 billion in compliance and safety plans over the next three years. The agreement reached between Boeing and the Department of Justice will not provide immunity for any individual employees or executives.
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
China concept stocks fell before market.
XPeng Motors fell nearly 4% pre-market, head of automotive technology center organization resigned.
Hong Kong auto stocks fell today, dragging down US-listed Chinese auto stocks pre-market. Among them, Xpeng Auto fell nearly 4% pre-market to $7.61. According to reports, the former head of Xpeng Auto's automotive technology center organization, Jiao Qingchun, resigned in early July. The news has now been confirmed by Xpeng Auto.$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Pre-market trading fell nearly 4% to $7.61. It is reported that Jiao Qingchun, the former head of the automotive technology center of Xpeng, left the company in early July. Currently, this news has been confirmed by Xpeng.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for June at 23:00 US time.
US money market for May, crediting occurred ($100 million = 1 billion USD) at 3:00 US time.
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