1) 我们认为公司作为先进生物制造企业的全方位竞争优势持续显现，包括合成生物及AI 技术赋能发酵工艺优化、区位优势带来的资源禀赋，促进整体成本管控能力持续提升。赋能工艺优化方面，根据公司投资者关系记录，目前公司已经将大量的生产数据提供给金珵科技，AI 模型已做出相应的分析和智能化改进方案，根据数据进行专业模型建设，目前已经在公司进行验证，公司将根据 AI 的迭代和发展不断的实验，促进发酵水平提升；此外在合成生物学方面，AI 对关键酶的构建、酶的活性和研发效率上均有明显的提升，有望全面赋能发酵生产工艺。发酵原材料方面，子公司瑾禾生物在农产品加工方面拥有年加工 12 万吨大豆、20 万吨小麦（大麦）及 8 万吨油葵的能力，截止2024 年 4 月公司已流转土地近八万亩，玉米作为公司重要原材料之一，采购价格相较内地便宜 20%以上，整体来看，公司具备较强的上游发酵原材料供给和成本管控能力。Incident: The company released a performance forecast for the first half of 2024, and the performance continues to be outstanding.
In the first half of 2024, the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.73-0.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.76%-97.00%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.73-0.77 billion yuan, an increase of 85.95%-96.14%; Q2 expects to achieve net profit of 0.377-0.417 billion yuan, an increase of 75.19%-93.76% year-on-year, and 7.03%-18.37% month-on-month. Looking at a single quarter, the company's profit side continued to perform well month-on-month, mainly due to (1) the continued boom in antibiotic intermediates, strong downstream demand, and a sharp rise in volume and price for major products; (2) improved biomantry technology and process optimization promoted an increase in marginal yield of antibiotic intermediates and a decrease in costs to broaden profit margins.
The all-round cost reduction advantages of biomaneling are highlighted, and the continued prosperity of the superimposed intermediates market is expected to drive the company's continued good performance.
1) We believe that the company's all-round competitive advantage as an advanced biological manufacturing enterprise continues to show, including synthetic biology and AI technology to optimize fermentation processes and resource endowments brought about by location advantages, and promote the continuous improvement of overall cost control capabilities. In terms of enabling process optimization, according to the company's investor relations records, the company has now provided a large amount of production data. The AI model has made corresponding analysis and intelligent improvement plans, and professional model construction has been carried out based on the data. Currently, it has been verified by the company. The company will promote the improvement of fermentation levels based on the iteration and development of AI. Furthermore, in terms of synthetic biology, AI has clearly improved the construction of key enzymes, enzyme activity, and R&D efficiency, which is expected to fully enable the fermentation production process. In terms of fermented raw materials, the subsidiary Jinhe Biotech has the ability to process 0.12 million tons of soybeans, 0.2 million tons of wheat (barley), and 0.08 million tons of sunflower per year in agricultural product processing. As of April 2024, the company has transferred nearly 80,000 mu of land. As one of the company's important raw materials, the purchase price is more than 20% cheaper than in the mainland. Overall, the company has strong upstream fermentation raw material supply and cost control capabilities.
2) Considering that there is no significant impact on the new production capacity of 6-APA overseas, the cephalosporin and sulfur red series have achieved a sharp rise in volume and price, which is expected to help the company continue to perform well in the second half of 2024. According to the company's investor relations records, the price of cephalosporin intermediates bottomed out in 2023 and picked up slightly in the first quarter of 2024. Currently, the competitive landscape is relatively stable.
The synthetic biology layout is being carried out in an orderly manner, and commercialization of some varieties has increased.
Currently, among the company's synthetic biology varieties, bisabolol and 5-hydroxytryptophan have been mass-produced. Ergothione is expected to be produced this year, bisabolol and 5-hydroxytryptophan are temporarily using the agent model, and product companies such as ergothione are actively developing downstream customers. Furthermore, in terms of PHA, the company will determine the product market advantage and the company's cost advantage based on the reflection after initial PHA production and launch on the market, and jointly promote the large-scale production capacity layout of the PHA project. Currently, the company's synthetic biological varieties are arranged with high-value-added natural products+bulk compounds, which is expected to open up a second growth curve.
Investment advice:
Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 13.69 yuan. We expect the company's revenue growth rates from 2024 to 2026 to be 14.5%, 13.2%, and 10.1%, respectively, and net profit growth rates of 29.4%, 22.3%, and 18.4%, respectively. Maintaining the buy-A investment rating, the target price for 6 months is 13.69 yuan, which is equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 2024 25.
Risk warning: The market boom for antibiotic intermediates falls short of expectations; optimization of AI and synthetic biology enabling processes falls short of expectations; commercialization of new businesses falls short of expectations.
