Focus on CHK and US stocks

The US stock market continues to soar to new heights! From "Trump Trade" to "Interest Rate Cut Trade", the market welcomed two heavyweight signals this week.

美股又㕛叒创新高了！

随着疲软就业市场数据的公布，美联储降息预期再度被点燃，美债收益率先升后降，资金重新涌入科技股，纳指及标普500上周五携手创新高。

上周美股三大指数涨势延续，纳指周涨3.5%，标普500涨1.95%，道指虽表现平平仍涨0.66%。值得注意的是，标普500指数上周五再次创下年内第34次收盘新高，表现极为强势。

科技股持续蓄力！标普500指数创下年内第34次收盘新高

标普500指数上周上涨近2%，为4月以来的最大涨幅；此外上周四个交易日中，标普500每日都在上涨。

拉长周期来看，美股的涨幅更为惊人——24年刚刚过半，标普500指数已大涨近17%。其中千亿市值以上成份股中，“股王”$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$年涨154%表现最佳，$GE航天航空 (GE.US)$、$礼来 (LLY.US)$、$Arista Networks (ANET.US)$、$美光科技 (MU.US)$、$博通 (AVGO.US)$、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、$应用材料 (AMAT.US)$表现亦不俗，均大涨超50%；此外，$科磊 (KLAC.US)$、$高通 (QCOM.US)$也紧随其后，双双录得超40%的年涨幅。

道琼斯市场统计显示，过去一周通信服务和信息科技板块上涨近4%，再次领跑市场。标普信息科技指数升至历史新高，通信服务板块则创2000年以来最高水平。此外，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$、$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$、$谷歌-C (GOOG.US)$、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、$微软 (MSFT.US)$等科技巨头股价纷纷创52周新高，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$更是一周内狂飙超27%。

科技股上涨势头十足，资金也在“真金白银”地支持。伦交所数据显示，上周美股基金净买入达到86.2亿美元，其中大盘股基金增持达到84.6亿美元，这与近期科技股强势表现密不可分。

Q2财报季即将开启，科技股能否交出超预期的业绩，继而再次引领美股大盘的上涨，成为下一阶段市场聚焦的重点。华尔街对此次财报季可谓是信心满满，据FactSet预测，标普500指数二季度的盈利将同比增长近9%，有望创下2022年初以来的最大季度增幅。

德银最新预测，在新一轮财报中科技巨头的平均盈利增长将从上一季度的38%降至30%。但与此同时，美国其他企业的盈利回升将支撑市场进一步上涨——能源和材料公司更强劲的盈利表现将抵消科技巨头盈利增长的放缓。

但值得注意的是，美股高度集中下，科技巨头对市场影响举足轻重，即使其他行业的龙头公司的盈利表现好于预期，也可能不足以抵消科技巨头的弱于预期的负面影响。

从“特朗普交易”切至“降息交易”，降息预期愈演愈烈

7月5日，6月非农数据发布后，“降息交易”主线再度压过“特朗普交易”，成为市场交易的主线——5月PCE降温，6月ISM制造业、服务业PMI走弱，6月非农显示劳动力市场放缓……近期公布的多项数据均揭示出美国经济有降温迹象，市场降息预期也随之点燃。

芝商所（CME）美联储利率观察工具显示，6月非农数据公布后，投资者提高了对9月降息的押注，9月降息25个基点的概率从一周前的64%上升到最新的77%左右。

平安证券表示，本轮降息或于9月开启首轮降息，降息路径更类似于1995年和2009年的两次预防式降息，即降息次数和幅度均有限，首轮降息开始时宽松交易即结束。

在此情景下，需更注重降息前后资产配置节奏，美债押注降息0-2次，中期来看，在降息前仍可逢高配置，但短期内或较难有回报。美股全年维度来看并不悲观，短期或受经济数据波动带来的降息“折返跑”而出现较强震荡，建议回调充分后可再介入，降息前科技龙头及上游资源品仍有机会，降息后经济修复下，周期股或将出现较好表现。

摩根大通的凯利同样预计，美联储将在9月份的政策会议上进行本轮周期的首次降息，然后在12月份可能会再次降息。他补充说，这是由于美国经济降温造成的，尤其是美国失业率已经升至4.1%，为近三年来的最高水平。

但凯利表示，降息不应成为投资者涌向股市的信号。他指出了美股估值过高的问题：标普500指数今年迄今为止已经累计上涨17%，并多次刷新历史纪录。“这是一个我们必须非常小心的时期，因为估值很高。去年和今年我们都经历了巨大的反弹。”

精彩不停！本周市场又迎两大重磅信号

刚消化完6月非农数据，紧接着本周美股市场再迎两大关键事件，预计将对市场降息预期产生重磅影响。本周二和周三，美联储主席鲍威尔将连续两天出席国会听证会，他将如何向国会议员阐述当前美国的通胀水平和美联储的降息前景，成为市场关注焦点。

就在刚刚过去的上周五，美联储发布了2024年度上半年的《货币政策报告》，报告中强调，在获得更大信心认为通胀持续朝着2％方向发展之前，不认为降息是适当的。美联储强调，过早或过度降息可能导致通胀进展的逆转。同时，过晚或过少降息可能会不当削弱经济活动和就业。

可以预见的是，鲍威尔在国会听证会将会面对议员在众多经济数据、经济前景和美联储降息步伐的质询。

另外，美国分别将于周四、周五公布6月CPI、PPI数据，将进一步揭示美国经济及通胀现状，这也将为美联储政策决策提供有力依据。值得注意的是，目前经济数据适当走弱是美股的利好，不过一旦继续恶化导致衰退预期升高，恐怕将引发美股的波动和反转。

编辑/emily

US stocks have hit new highs again!

With the release of weak job market data, the expectation of a Fed rate cut has been reignited, causing bond yields to rise and fall. Funds have poured back into technology stocks, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs together last Friday.

Last week, the three major indexes of US stocks continued to rise, with the Nasdaq up 3.5% for the week, the S&P 500 up 1.95%, and the Dow Jones up 0.66% despite its tepid performance. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 index set a new closing high for the 34th time this year on Friday, showing extremely strong performance.

Technology stocks are continuing to gain momentum! The S&P 500 index hit a new closing high for the 34th time this year.

The S&P 500 index rose nearly 2% last week, the largest increase since April; in addition, the S&P 500 rose every day last week.

Looking at a longer period of time, the increase in US stocks is even more surprising--just over halfway through its 24th year, the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 17%. Among the components with a market capitalization of over 100 billion yuan, the "stock king" had the best performance, with a year-on-year increase of 154%,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$and "GE Aerospace and Aviation (GE.US)" also performed well, with both stocks rising more than 50%; in addition, $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$, $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$, $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$, $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$According to statistics from Dow Jones Market, communications services and information technology rose nearly 4% last week once again leading the market. The S&P information technology index rose to a historical new high, while the communications services sector hit its highest level since 2000. In addition,$KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$, $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$also skyrocketed over 27% in just one week.

Dow Jones market statistics show that in the past week, the communications services and information technology sectors have risen by nearly 4%, once again leading the market. The S&P Information Technology Index has reached a historic high, while the communications services sector has reached its highest level since 2000. In addition, $Apple (AAPL.US)$, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Even the stock prices of tech giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft hit 52-week highs.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The Q2 earnings season is about to begin. Whether technology stocks can deliver better-than-expected results, lead the rise of the US stock market again, and become the focus of the market in the next stage. Wall Street is full of confidence in the earnings season. According to FactSet's prediction, S&P 500 earnings in the second quarter will increase by nearly 9% year-on-year, and is expected to achieve the largest quarterly increase since early 2022.

Deutsche Bank’s latest forecast shows that the average profit growth of tech giants in the new quarter will drop from 38% in the previous quarter to 30%. However, at the same time, the rebound in the profits of other US companies will support the market’s further increase - the stronger profit performance of energy and materials companies will offset the slowdown in the profit growth of tech giants.

But it is worth noting that in the highly concentrated US stock market, tech giants have a major impact on the market. Even if the profit performance of other industry leaders is better than expected, it may not be enough to offset the negative effects of the weaker-than-expected performance of tech giants.

From the "Trump trade" to the "rate cut trade", the expectation of a rate cut is growing. On July 5th, after the release of the non-agricultural data for June, the "rate cut trade" once again surpassed the "Trump trade" and became the main theme of market trading. The cooling of the May PCE, the weakening of the ISM manufacturing and service industry PMI's in June, and the slowdown of the labor market in June... a number of data recently released have revealed signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and the expectation of a rate cut has been ignited along with it.

However, it is worth noting that in the highly concentrated US stock market, tech giants have a major impact on the market. Even if the profit performance of other industry leaders is better than expected, it may not be enough to offset the negative effects of the weaker-than-expected performance of tech giants.

As the expectation of a rate cut continues to grow, from the "Trump trade" to the "rate cut trade".

After the release of the non-farm data for June on July 5th, the "rate cut trade" once again surpassed the "Trump trade" and became the main theme of market trading - the cooling of the May PCE, the weakening of the ISM manufacturing and service industries' PMI's in June, and the slowdown of the labor market in June... a number of data recently released have revealed signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and the expectation of a rate cut has been ignited along with it.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the release of non-farm data in June, investors have increased their bets on a rate cut in September, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen from around 64% a week ago to around 77% currently.

Ping An Securities stated that this round of rate cuts is expected to begin in September, and the rate cut path is more similar to the two preventive rate cuts in 1995 and 2009, with both the number of cuts and the magnitude being limited. The easing trade will end when the first round of rate cuts begins.

In this scenario, it is necessary to pay more attention to the rhythm of asset allocation before and after the rate cuts. Betting on US bonds with rate cuts 0-2 times can still be carried out at highs in the mid-term, but it may be difficult to have returns in the short term. Looking at the overall year, the US stock market is not pessimistic. In the short term, it may experience strong fluctuations caused by economic data fluctuations. It is recommended to re-enter after a sufficient pullback. Leading technology and upstream resource stocks still have opportunities before the rate cut, and after the rate cut, cyclical stocks may perform well under economic recovery.

Jpmorgan's Kelly also expects the Fed to make its first rate cut of the current cycle at its policy meeting in September, followed by another rate cut in December. He added that this is due to the cooling of the U.S. economy, especially the unemployment rate, which has risen to 4.1%, the highest level in nearly three years.

But Kelly said the rate cut should not be a signal for investors to rush to the stock market. He pointed out the problem of overvaluation in the U.S. stock market: the S&P 500 index has risen 17% so far this year and has set several historical records. "This is a time when we have to be very careful because valuations are very high. We experienced a huge rebound last year and this year."

The excitement never stops! This week, the market will see two important signals.

Just after digesting the non-farm payrolls data for June, the U.S. stock market will see two key events this week that are expected to have a major impact on market expectations for rate cuts. On Tuesday and Wednesday this week, Fed Chairman Powell will attend a two-day congressional hearing, where he will explain to members of Congress the current level of inflation in the United States and the Fed's rate-cutting prospects, which will be the focus of market attention.

Last Friday, the Fed released its Monetary Policy Report for the first half of 2024, which emphasized that it did not consider a rate cut to be appropriate before it had greater confidence that inflation was persistently moving toward the 2% target. The Fed emphasized that premature or excessive rate cuts could lead to a reversal of progress on inflation. At the same time, too little or too late rate cuts could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.

It is foreseeable that Powell will face inquiries from lawmakers regarding various economic data, economic prospects, and the pace of the Fed's rate cuts during the congressional hearing.

In addition, the U.S. will release CPI and PPI data for June on Thursday and Friday, respectively, which will further reveal the current economic and inflation status of the United States and provide strong support for Fed policy decisions. It is worth noting that the current weak economic data is good news for the U.S. stock market, but if it continues to deteriorate and increases the expectation of a recession, it may trigger volatility and a reversal in the stock market.

Editor/Emily

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