Morgan Asset Management pointed out that in the second half of the year, Hong Kong stocks started fluctuating but stabilized last week, closing up 81 points or 0.5%. The market is waiting for the Third Plenum next week. The chief market strategist of Morgan Asset Management in the Asia-Pacific region, Xu Changtai, believes that the Third Plenum is a long-term strategic indicator, and short-term macro-policy concerns will be less of a focus, so the market and investors have low expectations for policy expectations this time, with more surprises than high expectations. Those who wish to add to their holdings in Hong Kong stocks can wait for a while.

Northbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 10.9 billion in the four trading days last week, of which HKD5.8 billion was accounted for by bank stocks, accounting for more than half. Xu Changtai also believes that the inflow of funds is related to the low interest rates and bond yields in the mainland and the attractiveness of the cash return, despite the fact that the dividend yield has fallen from the high level of about 8% in the past few months, it is still attractive to Northbound funds.$CCB (00939.HK)$and$ICBC (01398.HK)$Internal banks accounted for 5.8 billion Hong Kong dollars of the 10.9 billion Hong Kong dollars net inflow. Xuchangtai also believes that the inflow of funds is related to the low interest rates and bond yields in the Mainland, and the low return on cash, even though the dividend yield has fallen from a high level of about 8% in the past few months, it still attracts northward funds.

He pointed out that stock selection will still focus on the old economy sector and high-yield stocks, both of which have been stable in performance in the past six months. Consumer stocks, such as e-commerce and internet leaders, although they have good profitability, need to further strengthen consumer purchasing power. It remains to be seen whether there will be a turnaround in consumption during the Singles' Day sales season or even the end of the year.

Xu Changtai believes that if investors want to add to the Hong Kong stock market now, they may wish to wait for a while, because the probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September may not be as high as expected by the market. If one or two economic data improve again, the timing of the rate cut may be postponed to December. In addition, the US presidential election is also held in the fourth quarter. It is better to enter the market after the uncertainties retreat. It is expected that there will be more positive factors in the fourth quarter stock market.

Editor/ping