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Futu Morning Post | Major this week! Powell is about to "brave" Capitol Hill; Eight consecutive rises achieved! Tesla soared more than 27% this week, wiping out the year's decline.

Futu News · 07:56

热点要闻

本周重磅！鲍威尔即将“勇闯”国会山

美联储主席鲍威尔将于周二、周三连续两日登上国会山，发表半年度货币政策证词。届时，他可能会重申，需进一步确认通胀正在放缓，然后才能降息。按照惯例，美联储会提前一天，也就是周一公布鲍威尔的国会证词。

美联储货币政策报告：通胀降温，就业市场类似疫情前，美股涨速快于盈利预期

美联储半年度货币政策报告称，美国通胀压力正在缓解，就业市场已恢复到新冠疫情前的状态，紧张但不过热。金融系统仍然健康并具有韧性，但有迹象表明存在脆弱性。美联储的报告指出，美股价格的上涨速度快于盈利预期，公司债券利差接近历史低点。

本周，日股ETF基金将展开“年度万亿抛售”活动

根据大和证券和野村证券的预期，在周一（7月8日）和周三（7月10日）尾盘阶段，跟踪日经指数和东证指数的主要ETF，将展开总额接近1.2-1.3万亿日元（约合540-580亿元人民币）的股票、期货集中出售操作。不过，对于这种“常规操作”，市场分析师也认为虽然短期内可能会产生一些走势上的波动，但这个事件本身并不会改变市场趋势。

金银创一个月新高！背后不仅是非农助推，印度央行也在“爆买”

由于非农就业报告不佳，美联储降息预期升温，美元承压，黄金和白银期货周五双双创下5月以来的最高纪录。此外，印度央行的“爆买”也在助推金银价格近期上涨。根据印度储备银行每周数据的计算，印度储备银行的黄金储备在6月份增加了9吨以上，为2022年7月以来的最高水平。

美股复盘

非农报告提振降息预期，三大指数集体收涨，标普、纳指再创新高

美东时间周五，最新就业数据提振了市场对美联储降息的预期，三大指数集体收涨，标普500指数和纳指再创收盘新高。

截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，报39,375.87点；标普500指数涨0.54%，报5,567.19点；纳斯达克指数涨0.90%，报18,352.76点。

大型科技股多数上涨，Meta涨近6%，AMD涨近5%，苹果、特斯拉、谷歌涨超2%，微软、亚马逊涨超1%，英伟达跌近2%。

热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.02%，蔚来跌超5%，小鹏汽车跌近5%，阿里巴巴、理想汽车跌超1%，京东、拼多多小幅下跌。

八连涨、单周上涨27%！半年的跌幅，特斯拉一周就抹平了

在二季度交付数据的持续催化下，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$股价周五上涨2.1% 至 251.52 美元，单周上涨27%，过去八个交易日更是暴涨了 38%，创下一年多以来最长的涨势纪录。

尽管二季度交付好于预期，特斯拉面临的挑战并没有消失，7月23日盘后公布的第二季度业绩报告，可能会让投资者初步了解特斯拉在新产品方面的进展。此外，汽车毛利率也可能会成为关注焦点。马斯克还计划在8月8日并举办一场名为Robotaxi Day的活动，首次推出机器人出租车Robotaxi。

英伟达股价涨到头了？分析师下调其评级，但看好AMD和台积电

New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu将$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$的股票评级从买入下调至中性，并给出了135美元的一年期目标价。Ferragu看好$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$和$台积电 (TSM.US)$的股价表现，他对这两只股票的12个月目标价分别为235美元和1200新台币。该分析师认为，尽管英伟达仍然是AI数据中心领域最强大的特许经营公司，但近期预期和估值证明，对该股的看法应该更为谨慎。

报道：台积电多数客户已同意上调代工价格换取可靠的供应

麦格理证券在最新发布的报告中指出，根据供应链访查，$台积电 (TSM.US)$多数客户已同意上调代工价格换取可靠的供应，这将带动台积电的毛利率进一步攀升。据分析师测算，台积电的毛利率将于2025年攀升至55.1%；2026年将逼近六成，达到59.3%。

业内人士称，此次涨价可能是基于市场需求、产能、成本方面的考量。有消息显示，苹果、高通、英伟达与AMD等四大厂大举包下台积电3nm家族制程产能，并涌现客户排队潮，一路排到2026年。

亚马逊CEO贝佐斯套现3.331亿美元的股票

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）文件显示：7月2-3日，$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$CEO贝佐斯分两笔共卖出166.4886万股亚马逊股票，总计套现3.331亿美元。

诺和诺德股价继续上涨，投资者不担忧哈佛“眼病报告”

最新研究显示，$诺和诺德 (NVO.US)$减肥药Ozempic和Wegovy可能与一种能导致“视觉丧失”的罕见眼病有关。对此，诺和诺德公司发言人指出，该研究结果不可靠，参与试验的患者数量有限。德意志银行分析师认为这一研究结果并不会对市场造成重大影响，最坏结果可能只是导致药物标签的进一步更新。而投资者对此似乎并不担忧，周五诺和诺德美股维持涨势，最终收涨超2%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水继续加仓工行超3亿港元，买入腾讯、中石化各约2亿港元

7月5日（周五），南下资金净买入港股3.5亿港元。

$工商银行 (01398.HK)$、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$中国石油化工股份 (00386.HK)$分别获净买入3.32亿港元、2.19亿港元、1.94亿港元；

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$恒生中国企业 (02828.HK)$、$中国移动 (00941.HK)$分别遭净卖出9.49亿港元、6.02亿港元、2.13亿港元。

今日关注

关键词：日本贸易帐；美国纽约联储1年通胀预期

周一，经济数据方面，投资者可关注日本贸易帐，以及美国纽约联储1年通胀预期。

牛牛晨读：

市场的规律性源于不变的人性。
——杰西·利弗莫尔

编辑/Somer

Hot news

This week, Powell is about to "brave" Capitol Hill.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver semiannual monetary policy testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday on Capitol Hill. At that time, he may reiterate that interest rate cuts are needed only after further confirmation that inflation is slowing. As usual, the Fed will release Powell's Congressional testimony the day before on Monday.

Fed Monetary Policy Report: Inflation cools down, the job market is similar to pre-epidemic, and US stocks rise faster than profit expectations.

The Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report states that U.S. inflationary pressures are easing, the job market has rebounded to pre-coronavirus levels, and is tense but not overheated. The financial system remains healthy and resilient, but there are signs of vulnerability. The report points out that the rise in U.S. stock prices is faster than profit expectations, and corporate bond spreads are close to historical lows.

This week, Japanese ETF funds will launch their annual trillion-yen sell-off.

According to the expectations of Nomura Securities and Daiwa Securities, in the final stage of Monday (July 8) and Wednesday (July 10), major ETFs tracking the Nikkei and TOPIX indices will sell stocks and futures worth nearly 1.2-1.3 trillion yen (approximately RMB 54-58 billion). However, market analysts also believe that although there may be some volatility in the short term, this "routine operation" itself will not change the market trend.

Gold and silver hit new monthly highs! Behind it is not only the non-farm push, but also the "panic buying" of the Reserve Bank of India.

Due to the poor non-farm employment report, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Fed has risen, and the US dollar is under pressure. Gold and silver futures hit their highest level since May on Friday. In addition, the Reserve Bank of India's "panic buying" has also pushed up gold and silver prices recently. According to the weekly data of the Reserve Bank of India, India's gold reserves increased by more than 9 tons in June, the highest level since July 2022.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The non-farm report boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the three major indices collectively rose. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq hit new closing highs again.

On Friday, the latest employment data boosted the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and the three major indices collectively rose. The Dow Jones index rose 0.17% to 39,375.87 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.54% to 5,567.19 points; the Nasdaq index rose 0.90% to 18,352.76 points.

At the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.17% to 39,375.87 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.54% to 5,567.19 points; the Nasdaq index rose 0.90% to 18,352.76 points.

Most large-cap technology stocks rose, with Meta up nearly 6%, AMD up nearly 5%, and Apple, Tesla, and Google up more than 2%; Microsoft and Amazon up more than 1%; and Nvidia down nearly 2%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.02%, Nio down more than 5%, Xpeng down nearly 5%, Alibaba and Li Auto down more than 1%, and JD.com and PDD Holdings slightly down.

Eight consecutive gains, a 27% increase in a single week! Tesla's half-year decline was wiped out in just one week.

With the continued stimulation of second-quarter delivery data,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Its stock price rose 2.1% to $251.52 on Friday, up 27% for the week, and skyrocketed 38% in the past eight trading days, setting a record for the longest surge in more than a year.

Although the second-quarter delivery was better than expected, Tesla's challenges have not disappeared, and the second-quarter financial report, which will be released after the close on July 23, may give investors a preliminary understanding of Tesla's progress in new products. In addition, automobile gross margin may also be a focus of attention. Musk also plans to hold an event called Robotaxi Day on August 8, launching the first robot taxi.

Has NVIDIA's stock price reached its peak? Analysts downgraded its rating, but are bullish on AMD and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Pierre Ferragu, an analyst at New Street Research,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$has downgraded the stock rating from buy to neutral, with a one-year target price of $135. Ferragu is bullish on Nvidia's stock price performance and has a 12-month target price of $235 and NT$1,200 for the two stocks, respectively.$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Although Nvidia is still the most powerful proprietary company in the AI data center field, recent expectations and valuations prove that the view of the stock should be more cautious, according to the analyst.

Report: Most of Taiwan Semiconductor's clients have agreed to increase manufacturing prices in exchange for reliable supply.

In its latest report, Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that according to a supply chain survey, most customers have agreed to raise outsourcing prices in exchange for reliable supply, which will drive Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin further. According to analysts, Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin will climb to 55.1% in 2025 and approach 60% in 2026, reaching 59.3%.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Industry insiders said that the price hike may be based on market demand, capacity, and cost considerations. According to reports, Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and AMD, and other major factories have reserved Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm family process capacity and there is a customer queue all the way to 2026.

Amazon CEO Bezos sold 1.664886 million shares of Amazon stock in two batches and cashed out a total of $0.3331 billion. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) documents show that on July 2-3

Weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy may be linked to a rare eye disease that can cause "vision loss," according to new research. A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk said the study's results were unreliable because the number of patients involved in the study was limited. Deutsche Bank analysts believe that this research result will not have a significant impact on the market, and the worst-case scenario may only result in further updates to drug labels. However, investors do not seem to be worried as Novo Nordisk's US stocks maintained their upward trend on Friday and ultimately closed up over 2%.

Northbound funds continue to increase their holdings of ICBC by more than HKD 0.3 billion, buying Tencent and Sinopec for about HKD 0.2 billion each.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$On Friday, July 5, southbound capital bought a net total of HKD 0.35 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks. They bought HKD 0.332 billion, HKD 0.219 billion, and HKD 0.194 billion worth of stocks respectively, while selling HKD 0.949 billion, HKD 0.602 billion, and HKD 0.213 billion worth of stocks.

Novo Nordisk's stock price continues to rise, investors are not worried about the Harvard "Eye Disease Report".

The regularity of the market comes from unchanged human nature.$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$In its latest report, Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that according to a supply chain survey, most customers have agreed to raise outsourcing prices in exchange for reliable supply, which will drive Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin further. According to analysts, Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin will climb to 55.1% in 2025 and approach 60% in 2026, reaching 59.3%.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Industry insiders said that the price hike may be based on market demand, capacity, and cost considerations. According to reports, Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and AMD, and other major factories have reserved Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm family process capacity and there is a customer queue all the way to 2026.

Amazon CEO Bezos sold 1.664886 million shares of Amazon stock in two batches and cashed out a total of $0.3331 billion. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) documents show that on July 2-3

$ICBC (01398.HK)$, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$, $SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$Weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy may be linked to a rare eye disease that can cause "vision loss," according to new research. A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk said the study's results were unreliable because the number of patients involved in the study was limited. Deutsche Bank analysts believe that this research result will not have a significant impact on the market, and the worst-case scenario may only result in further updates to drug labels. However, investors do not seem to be worried as Novo Nordisk's US stocks maintained their upward trend on Friday and ultimately closed up over 2%.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$, $Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$, $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Northbound funds continue to increase their holdings of ICBC by more than HKD 0.3 billion, buying Tencent and Sinopec for about HKD 0.2 billion each.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: Japan's Trade Account; US New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations

On Monday, regarding economic data, investors can pay attention to Japan's trade account and the 1-year inflation expectations from the New York Fed in the US.

Futubull Morning News:

On Friday, July 5, southbound capital bought a net total of HKD 0.35 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks. They bought HKD 0.332 billion, HKD 0.219 billion, and HKD 0.194 billion worth of stocks respectively, while selling HKD 0.949 billion, HKD 0.602 billion, and HKD 0.213 billion worth of stocks.
Gemini, Claude, Perplexity, and other large models under the auspices of AnthropicAI have successively failed. According to the analysis of QR Code Generator, the search volume of Google's AI chatbot Gemini surged 60%, reaching 32.7 times within four hours after ChatGPT's first outage.

Editor/Somer

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