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“拒绝下跌”的美股,鲍威尔和CPI,本周是“火上浇油”还是“当头棒喝”?

"Refuse to decline" US stock, Powell and CPI, will this week be a "fuel to the fire" or a "wake-up call"?

wallstreetcn ·  06:58

Powell may emphasize the need for further confirmation of the slowdown in inflation, implying that the Fed is not considering a rate cut at the moment.

Despite facing the stock price slump, market volatility, and even political uncertainty triggered by Biden's debate defeat, the US stocks still refuse to fall and keep rising. Among them, technology stocks have particularly outstanding performance. Last week, major indices and technology giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft set new historical highs, and even some tech giants' stocks skyrocketed by 27.1% in a week. However, the market's high heat has also raised concerns about the accumulation of risks. The relative strength index (RSI) shows that major indices and technology giant stocks have been generally overbought since mid-June. It is worth noting that the increase since the beginning of the year is only 4.5%, while the increase of only 0.69% is almost negligible, highlighting the strong performance of large-cap tech stocks. Against this backdrop, Powell's speech and US CPI data will become the focus of the market next week.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The weather is good today The weather is good today.$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.

Among them, the technology stocks had particularly outstanding performance. Last week,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ and $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$major indices and technology giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft set new historical highs.$Apple (AAPL.US)$, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Even the stock prices of tech giants such as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft hit 52-week highs.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Even some tech giants' stocks skyrocketed by 27.1% in a week.

However, the market's high heat has also raised concerns about the accumulation of risks. The relative strength index (RSI) shows that major indices and technology giant stocks have been generally overbought since mid-June.

It is worth noting that the increase since the beginning of the year is only 4.5%, while the increase of only 0.69% is almost negligible, highlighting the strong performance of large-cap tech stocks.$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$The increase since the beginning of the year is only 4.5%.$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$The increase of only 0.69% is almost negligible, highlighting the strong performance of large-cap tech stocks.

Against this backdrop, Powell's speech and US CPI data will become the focus of the market next week.

"Adding fuel to the fire" or "hitting the nail on the head"?

(1) Powell's congressional testimony:

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Against the background of rising unemployment and slowing economic growth, Powell may face pressure to cut interest rates. However, it is expected he will emphasize the need to further confirm the trend of slowing inflation and suggest that the Fed is not considering rate cuts for the time being. Media expect Powell to face sharper questioning from lawmakers about why the Fed is unwilling to lower borrowing costs.

It is worth mentioning that this Tuesday, Powell said that recent data shows inflation is returning to a downward trajectory, but he and his colleagues hope to see this trend continue.

(2) CPI data release:

The release of CPI data for June on Thursday will be another focus of the market's attention. Currently, the market expects core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month, and total CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase that may fall to 3.1%, the lowest in five months. These data will provide important reference for the Fed's policy decisions.

It is worth mentioning that the monthly non-farm employment report released on Friday showed that although the unemployment rate is still at a historic low of 4.1%, it is rising. The minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting showed that several officials pointed out that further slowing of demand could lead to rising unemployment.

Editor/Somer

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