The warm and defensive nature of the policy is prominent. Seizing investment opportunities with central enterprises+dividends, central enterprises contributed greatly and grew steadily, and policies helped reshape valuations: In 2023, listed companies of central enterprises of the State Assets Administration Commission contributed 34.46% of A-share revenue and 21.66% of net profit by only about 7%; judging from the net profit growth rate in recent years, the growth of central enterprises is more stable. Policies are being introduced intensively, focusing on high-quality development goals and reforming assessment indicators for central enterprises, and central enterprises are expected to further open up valuation space.
Low valuation+high dividends, high margin of safety for central enterprises, stable dividends: The TTM of the CCIC Central Enterprise Index is 10.81, lower than 16.04 of the total China Securities Index, which is significantly lower than 32.74 of the China Securities Private Enterprise Index; central enterprise dividends are in a pivotal position, leading other companies in terms of dividend level, dividend sustainability and growth.
Downward risk appetite is compounded by policies, and dividend assets of central enterprises receive the attention of institutions: the downward cycle of domestic interest rates compounded the “asset shortage” market, and capital poured into high-dividend assets in pursuit of certainty; the issuance of the new “Nine National Rules” encouraged dividends, which favors high-dividend assets. Active partial equity funds hold dividend constituent shares of China Securities central enterprises and the total market value and share of central enterprises have shown an upward trend in recent years.
In a microscopic environment, dividends are not yet crowded, and the future can still be expected: judging from congestion indicators such as turnover deviation rate and turnover ratio, dividend assets are not yet crowded, and there is still enough room for growth in the future.
The China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index (000825.CSI) investment value analysis positions central enterprises+high dividends: The China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index was released on July 20, 2012. 50 securities with high cash dividend rates, stable dividends, and a certain scale and liquidity were selected from central enterprises as an index sample to reflect the overall performance of medium and high dividend rate securities of central enterprises.
The number of index tracking products is scarce, and the layout is right: the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index currently tracks only one ETF product, and the number of tracking products is scarce.
The general market style of the constituent stocks is clear: the average market value of the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index is 316.7 billion yuan, which is higher than the average market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among them, there are 10 constituent stocks of 500 billion or more, accounting for 20%. It can be seen that the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index holdings are biased more towards leading stocks.
The industry concentration is high, mainly in mature industries: the distribution of the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index industry is dominated by mature industries such as banking, transportation, steel, and coal, accounting for 28.81%, 11.23%, 9.62%, and 7.54% respectively. The top three industries account for 50%, and the industry concentration is high.
The valuation is at a reasonable level of similar indices, and growth is stable: the price-earnings ratio, net price-earnings ratio, and dividend ratio of the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index is comparable to the Shanghai Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index and the China Securities Dividend Index, and is at the same reasonable level. The index's growth and profit-related indicators showed relatively stable performance, similar to the performance of similar indices.
Centralize leading stocks in the high-dividend industry: the top 5 weighted stocks in the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index account for 23%, and the top 10 weighted stocks are concentrated in leading companies such as banks, coal, transportation, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals.
The risk-return performance of dividend strategies is outstanding: Judging from the performance since 2013, dividend indices have similar returns, with an annualized index of more than 9%, which has a significant advantage over central enterprise non-high dividend indices. The annual earnings of the China Securities Central Enterprise Dividend Index are also similar to similar Shanghai Securities Central Enterprise Dividends and China Securities Dividends, outperforming the China Securities Central Enterprise Index for most years.
Risk warning: risk of environmental changes, risk of model failure. The statistical results are based on objective data and do not constitute investment recommendations.