In the first half of 2024, the cryptocurrency industry has experienced quite a lot. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Bitcoin hit a historic high of $73,798 in March this year, and has since fallen by more than 18%. In January of this year, the first US spot Bitcoin ETF began trading, and in May, US regulators took an important step towards approving Ether ETF.
In April of this year, the Bitcoin network experienced its fourth "halving" event, and the miner successfully completed the reward for a block from the previous 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin.
In the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen by 0.9% to around $60,389, a drop of more than 18% from its historic high of $73,798 in March. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Ether has fallen by 2.3% in the past seven days to around $3,309.
(Bitcoin daily chart, source: FX168)
According to Dow Jones Market Data, in the first half of this year, Bitcoin rose by nearly 46%, and Ether rose by 50%. These gains still lag behind their performance in the first half of 2023, when Bitcoin rose by 83.6% and Ether rose by 60.7%. #NFT and cryptocurrencies#
In the second half of this year, the crypto market will closely watch the following four events:
Rate-cut path
In the second half of this year, macroeconomic environment may continue to play an important role in the price of cryptocurrencies.
According to ETC Group's research director André Dragosch, concerns about the global economic slowdown could put pressure on Bitcoin, but central banks around the world may cut interest rates, which could be a catalyst for digital assets.
"In the past, you would see that periods of increasing currency supply growth are related to Bitcoin bull markets, and periods of decreasing currency supply growth are related to bear markets," Dragosch said in a phone interview.
Analyzers at CCData wrote in a recent report that without rate cuts, "economic growth will remain sluggish, limiting external investment into speculative markets."
According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice before the end of this year, with the first cut in September. However, according to the policy makers' dot plot forecast released in June, Fed officials expect only one cut by the end of this year.
Mt. Gox repayment
Cryptocurrency investors will closely watch the amount of Bitcoin sold by the Mt. Gox creditors. The bankrupt digital asset exchange said it will begin repaying Bitcoin to creditors who lost assets to a hack of the platform more than a decade ago in July.
The news has put pressure on Bitcoin as investors fear Mt. Gox creditors may choose to sell the Bitcoin they receive, which is currently trading at much higher prices than more than a decade ago.
Mt. Gox was founded in 2010 and was one of the earlier cryptocurrency exchanges and the world's largest digital asset exchange. A hack in 2011 caused more than 600,000 Bitcoins to be stolen, and the platform went bankrupt in 2014. Last year, the US Department of Justice charged two Russian citizens with conspiring to launder money through a hack of Mt. Gox. The exchange said last September that October 31, 2024 would be the deadline for basic repayment, early lump-sum repayment and midterm repayment.
It is worth noting that some Mt. Gox investors have said earlier this year that they have received cash payments for some of the stolen assets, but repayment in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash will begin this month. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, as of Wednesday, the exchange holds about 141,687 Bitcoins, worth about $8.5 billion.
However, Greg Cipolaro, head of global research at NYDIG, said the actual impact of the sell-off may not be as great as the market expects.
NYDIG expects that when repayment occurs, Bitcoin worth about $1.5 billion will enter the market. Cipolaro wrote in a recent report that while this is a big number, considering the daily trading volume of the token, it may not have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin, with daily trading volumes of Bitcoin quoted in USD ranging from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, and daily trading volumes of Bitcoin quoted in USDT being $4 billion.
The US presidential election
Cryptocurrency investors will closely watch the results of the November U.S. presidential election and how the elected government formulates policies around digital assets.
Cryptocurrency seems to have become an increasingly important theme in this election cycle.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump changed his position on cryptocurrencies, embracing the industry after previously attacking the asset. Trump's campaign started accepting cryptocurrency donations in May of this year. He has also met with executives from cryptocurrency mining companies and has positioned himself as the 'Cryptocurrency President.'
Meanwhile, in May of this year, dozens of Democratic congressmen voted for an industry-backed regulatory bill, which many believe shows that Democratic lawmakers do not want the public to vote that their party is anti-crypto.
Cryptocurrency ETFs
According to several media reports, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve the first Ethereum ETF as early as mid-July.
In May of this year, the SEC approved filings from subsidiaries of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq, and Cboe Global Markets to change the rules to allow for the listing of Ethereum ETFs. However, the SEC has not yet approved registration statements from potential issuers.
While it is generally believed that demand for Ethereum ETFs is unlikely to be as large as Bitcoin ETFs, analysts predict that the introduction of such products is likely to significantly boost the price of Ether and bring more demand to the entire cryptocurrency field.
Investors will also continue to monitor the flow of investments in Bitcoin ETFs.
"While Bitcoin ETFs exist in the US, it doesn't mean that people, especially registered investment advisors or (their) clients..." Kraken's Director of Strategy Thomas Perfumo said, "they're actually getting the exposure that is currently available."