Driven by signal chain+MCU dual platforms, the 24Q1 performance inflection point has been reached. Xinhai Technology is a full-signal chain chip design enterprise integrating sensing, calculation, control, and connectivity. It focuses on the R&D and design of high-precision ADCs, high-reliability MCUs, measurement algorithms, and IoT one-stop solutions. The products are widely used in industrial control, consumption, automobiles, etc. Downstream customers include Honor, Vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, Huami, Macwell, Feike, Huichuan, Hanwei, Sifang Optoelectronics, China Southern Power Grid and other world-renowned companies. The company's revenue in '23 showed a quarterly growth trend. 23H2 saw a gradual recovery in market demand and the gradual optimization of the customer inventory structure, and downstream customer demand increased. 23Q4 achieved revenue of 0.149 billion yuan, +12.9% year-on-year and +18.3% month-on-month. 24Q1 achieved revenue of 0.151 billion yuan, achieving significant year-on-month growth. The reason for the sharp increase in 24Q1's revenue was the release of new BMS and PC products, while demand in consumer electronics and other fields also increased significantly, which together drove the company's revenue growth and laid a good foundation for the company's annual growth.
AIPC penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly, and Xinhai Technology's PC products are fully deployed. PCs equipped with AI functions are expected to significantly boost consumer demand. According to Canalys, AIPC will rapidly become popular starting in 2025, and is expected to account for about 80% of all PC shipments by 2028. Since entering the PC field in 2019, Xinhai Technology has always been committed to building an internationally leading PC ecosystem with EC as the core and horizontally expanding to a series of diversified computing peripheral products such as PD, HUB, BMS, and HapticPad. Existing products have progressed rapidly and are continuously iteratively upgraded. We are optimistic that the company's PC products will continue to lead domestic substitution, and that the product number will continue to be enriched around high-precision ADC+high-performance MCUs. Stand-alone value is expected to increase significantly. Xinhai Technology will benefit from AIPC's industry wave with its rich product layout. Furthermore, looking through the company's ongoing research projects, it can be found that the company's investment in vehicle specification products has increased markedly, and vehicle grade products will also guarantee sufficient momentum for the company's future growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We are optimistic about the future development of the company. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 0.707/1.035/1.366 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, respectively, corresponding growth rates of 63.3%/46.4%/32.0%. The company is expected to achieve net profit to mother in 2024/2025/2026 of -0.032/0.092/0.196 billion yuan respectively, corresponding growth rates of 77.56%/384.46%/113.96%. Shengbang Co., Ltd., Nanxin Micro, and Aiwei Electronics, which are also in the analog signal chain and MCU chip business, were selected as comparable companies, and the PE valuation method was selected. The average PE valuation values of comparable companies in 2025/2026 were 66.8/38.4x, respectively, and Xinhai Technology's 2025/2026 PE valuation was 42.3/19.8x, respectively. Compared with comparable companies, they have valuation advantages and were given a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream demand falls short of expectations, R&D progress falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.