The data released on Friday showed that the unemployment rate in the United States rose again in June, but the number of jobs added in June was slightly higher than expected.

The non-farm employment in the United States increased by 0.206 million in June, higher than the expected 0.19 million. The previous value was revised from 0.272 million to 0.218 million, and the average monthly increase in employment for the previous 12 months was 0.22 million; the unexpected climbing unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021; Average hourly earnings in June increased by 3.9% year-on-year, the smallest increase since 2021.

After the data was released, gold took a roller coaster ride, plummeting 17 US dollars in the short term, falling below the $2,360 mark, and then strongly rebounding above $2,360 and surging to $2,370. The US dollar also performed a "heaven and earth needle" in the short term.

For the previous data, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the non-farm new jobs added in April were revised from 0.165 million to 0.108 million; the non-farm new jobs added in May were revised from 0.272 million to 0.218 million. After the revision, the total number of new jobs added in April and May decreased by 0.111 million from the revised value.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also pointed out that the unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, and the number of unemployed was 6.8 million. These indicators are higher than they were a year ago, when the unemployment rate was 3.6% and the number of unemployed was 6 million.

After the release of non-farm payroll data in the USA, traders in interest rates futures expect a slight increase in the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December.

In response, "Fed megaphone" Nick Timiraos warned that the US unemployment rate rose from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in June. This data has risen by 0.22% since March (3.83%). The Sam rule shows that the 3-month average is up 0.42% from the low point of 12 months, which is getting closer and closer to the threshold of 0.5%. The connotation of the "Sam rule" is that when the 3-month average unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the low point of 12 months, the economy is in a recession.

Subdivisional data shows that in June, about three-quarters of job growth came from medical care and government departments. A worrying sign is that temporary employment has seen its largest decline in more than three years. Manufacturing employment decreased by 8,000, the largest drop since February.

Overall, consistent with other employment reports this week, this latest data highlights that the US labor market is gradually cooling, which will support the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates later this year.

Reports released earlier this week showed that job vacancies in the United States this year have significantly decreased, while the number of people applying for unemployment benefits continues to increase. The continued slowdown in employment, coupled with recent inflation slowdowns, supports the bet that Fed policymakers will cut interest rates as early as September.

Fed officials are no longer so concerned about overheating in the job market and expect to cut interest rates later this year as long as inflation does not erupt, but the still strong job growth does make them feel that they can be more patient before cutting interest rates.

Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics in New York, said: "Now that we have the last employment data for the second quarter, there is enough evidence to suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Overall, the second quarter saw a slowdown in employment, coupled with an increase in the unemployment rate, and the recent path of growth has slowed, all of which support the reasons for rate cuts this year. We believe that if the data continues to show moderation, the Fed will definitely start discussing rate cuts at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting and lower policy rates in September."

It is worth noting that next week will also be a "busy week": on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, Fed Chairman Powell will "bravely" climb Capitol Hill to give a semi-annual monetary policy testimony; next week on Thursday, the United States will also release June CPI data, and investors must continue to be vigilant.

Editor/Emily