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美股前瞻 | 重磅来袭！非农数据高于预期，三大股指期货跳涨；美联储“三把手”：要持续达到2%通胀目标还有一段路要走

U.S. stock market preview: Heavyweight news! Non-farm data exceeds expectations, and the three major equity index futures jump; Fed "top three": there is still a long way to go to maintain the 2% inflation target.

Futu News ·  20:34

Global macro

  • Big news! Non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and the three major equity index futures jumped.

The June non-farm payroll report was released at 8:30 pm Beijing time on Friday, with a seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll population recording 0.206 million people, higher than market expectations, but slightly lower than the previous month's data. The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, with an expected value of 4% and a previous value of 4%. After the release of US non-farm data, US interest rate futures traders expect a slightly increased possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, and the three major equity index futures have enjoyed significant gains.

  • The US non-farm report shows that the job market still has resilience.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the US Labor Department reported on Friday that the US added 0.206 million jobs last month. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. Despite the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at their highest level in over 20 years, the report shows that the labor market remains resilient. The report shows that US recruitment has slowed down, and the labor market seems to have reached a better balance. The unemployment rate has risen from the decades-low of 3.4% at the beginning of last year. Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year in June, the smallest increase since 2021. Federal Reserve officials are no longer so worried about an overheating job market and are expected to lower interest rates later this year as long as inflation does not surge. However, strong job growth does make them feel more patient before they cut rates.

  • The US stock earnings season will kick off next week, and the US stock market will face a test.

Expectations of broader gains in the US stock market will be tested in the coming weeks. The second quarter earnings season will kick off next week, with major banks such as JPMorgan and Citigroup announcing their earnings on July 12. Investors generally believe that a small scope for rising stocks is a sign of market weakness, as a few weak large-cap stocks can cause a drop in the overall equity index. However, most investors expect the US economy to achieve a soft landing, so they expect more companies to improve their performance, which may boost the valuation of stocks that are undervalued relative to market leaders.

  • The Federal Reserve's "three key players": there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2% inflation target.

William Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and known as one of the 'three hands' of the Federal Reserve, who enjoys a permanent vote in the FOMC, said that it would still take more time to achieve the 2% inflation target, even though major progress has been made in reducing inflation to around 2.5%. At another event on Wednesday, Williams pointed out that the neutral interest rate (i.e. the interest rate at which monetary policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative) does not seem to have risen significantly and remains highly uncertain.

  • The growth in US monetary supply suggests that the trend towards concentration in US stocks may be reversed, and there may be opportunities for mid- and small-cap stocks.

Khuram Chaudhry, the head of JPMorgan's European quantitative strategy, pointed out that historically, the decline in the growth rate of the monetary supply is related to the concentration of the stock market. When loose monetary supply makes it easier for funds to obtain low-cost funding, small companies are more likely to grow; when monetary supply is tight, large companies have an advantage in using existing cash flow and balance sheets to provide funding for growth. US M2 monetary supply has finally begun to grow, and as the growth of monetary supply accelerates, smaller companies may be more likely to grow.

  • Citigroup: The price of copper is expected to return to the 10,000 yuan mark in the next few weeks, and the fourth quarter is the real test.

Market data shows that London copper futures have fallen more than 9% from their historic high of $11,100 per tonne in May and have now broken through the $10,000 per tonne mark to be reported at $9,957 per tonne. Citigroup analysts Shreyas Madabushi, Tom Mulqueen and others stated in a report released on July 4 that although copper demand was weak in May, overall it was still very strong. The report predicts that the price of copper will continue to hover in the range of $9,500 per tonne to $10,500 per tonne in the third quarter. If the Fed lowers interest rates on schedule in the fourth quarter, the price of copper is expected to rise to $12,000 per tonne and continue to rebound until 2025.

Hot news

  • Most growth tech stocks rose before the market, up more than 2%.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Up more than 2%.

  • Bitcoin fell below $54,000 per coin, and crypto stock prices fell before the market, down more than 2%.

Bitcoin broke through multiple barriers during the day, and stocks related to cryptocurrencies fell before the market. They fell more than 9%, more than 7.5%, nearly 7%, and more than 6% respectively. On the news front, Bitcoin lost the $54,000/coin support level and fell more than 7.5% during the day. Ethereum is currently down more than 6%. In addition, the German government reportedly transferred another part of its large Bitcoin reserves to an exchange. According to blockchain data, the Federal Criminal Police Office of Germany (BKA) transferred about $75 million worth of Bitcoin in multiple transactions on July 4. These funds are distributed on exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp. Since mid-June, the German government has transferred about $0.315 billion worth of Bitcoin to various platforms.$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$, $Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$Down more than 6%.$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$falling more than 5%,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$, $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Down more than 4%.

  • Tesla rose more than 2% before the opening bell today, and has risen for seven consecutive days. The second-generation humanoid robot Optimus from Tesla is officially unveiled, and Musk says that Tesla's autopilot and the mass production of Optimus will end the era of bears.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$CICC has raised its target price for Tesla to $300, and its second-quarter sales remained strong.

  • CICC released a research report stating that Tesla's second-quarter deliveries exceeded market expectations for the second quarter of 2024. In addition, the faster growth in overseas market sales in June, the launch of global car purchase discount policies, the smooth production of Cybertruck and batteries, and the favorable factors of Robotaxi compounded the favorable factors. The bank considered that the valuation of the sector had improved, the company's sales were slightly higher than expected, and the Robotaxi conference was about to be held. Therefore, it raised its target price by 40% to $300, maintaining a "outperform" rating and unchanged earnings forecasts for this year and next year.

CICC released a research report stating that Tesla's second-quarter deliveries exceeded market expectations for the second quarter of 2024. In addition, the faster growth in overseas market sales in June, the launch of global car purchase discount policies, the smooth production of Cybertruck and batteries, and the favorable factors of Robotaxi compounded the favorable factors. The bank considered that the valuation of the sector had improved, the company's sales were slightly higher than expected, and the Robotaxi conference was about to be held. Therefore, it raised its target price by 40% to $300, maintaining a "outperform" rating and unchanged earnings forecasts for this year and next year.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$"yes", The original text contains no Chinese characters.

  • More than 1 million chips will be shipped! Nvidia's sales in China are expected to reach $12 billion this year.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$According to a report from Semianalysis, NVIDIA is expected to sell about $12 billion worth of AI chips in China this year. NVIDIA is expected to deliver more than 1 million customized H20 chips to China over the next few months, with designs for these chips not subject to US restrictions on the sale of AI processors to Chinese customers. It is reported that the price of each H20 chip is between $12,000 and $13,000.

  • Shell expects a write-down of nearly $2 billion in Q2, and natural gas sales may be consistent with the same period last year.

$Shell (SHEL.US)$European energy giant Shell expects a write-down of nearly 2 billion US dollars in profit in the second quarter, related to the delay of the biofuel plant under construction in the Netherlands and the chemical plant in Singapore. Meanwhile, the company expects that due to seasonal changes in the market, the natural gas trading performance of the company in the second quarter may be slightly lower than that of the previous quarters, but it is expected that the overall sales will remain basically the same as the strong natural gas performance of the department in the same period last year.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 1% in pre-market trading, stimulated by multiple bullish factors.

There are market rumors that the Apple M5 series chip will be manufactured by TSMC using the most advanced SoIC-X packaging technology for AI servers. In addition, the market once again spread that TSMC's most advanced 3nm technology is brewing to raise prices by about 5% in 2025, and the 5nm technology is also expected to adjust its quote due to the increase in production costs.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The pace of accelerated buybacks is still far beyond expectations. Alibaba's $5 billion convertible notes issued in May should indicate the steady execution of the management's commitment to shareholder returns, possibly alleviating investor concerns. Looking ahead, although Alibaba is undergoing business transformation, its capital actions such as continuing to accelerate buybacks and possibly being included in the southbound link should provide downward support for the stock price. The current valuation is equivalent to a forecast PE of 9 times in the fiscal year 2025, and the valuation is not high. The bank gave Alibaba's target price of $105 and rated it as "buy".

  • UBS issued a report stating that it gives Ali a "buy" rating and a target price of $105. The recent tendency of investors to shift to high-yielding stocks favors companies like Ali, which have a high cash flow and a superior return on invested capital. The bank expects Ali's advertising revenue growth to continue to outperform, as it can attract more small and medium-sized advertisers to its platform by leveraging its superior data analysis capabilities and user insights. In addition, the bank also expects the company's cloud computing business to continue to maintain high growth in the future.

UBS published a report stating that $Alibaba (BABA.US)$20:30: US non-farm employment change (after seasonal adjustment) in June.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:00: Global supply chain pressure index for June in the United States.

01:00 the next day: Total US rig count (as of July 5).

01:00 next day: Total number of rigs in the United States as of July 5 (mouth).

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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