Source: Brokerage China Author: Qu Hongyan Recently, China Yangtze Power hit a historical high and once again showed the slow bull stock trend of "tripling in ten years". The slow bull market has left behind many passers-by and brought good returns to the steadfast investors. It is "rare for those who triple in one year to be like carp jumping over the dragon gate, while those who double in three years are few and far between." On the other end of the investment world, however, violent collapses are also deafening, with many financial products suspected of "Ponzi schemes" ceasing payments, leaving investors with no hope of recovering their investments. Both positive and negative cases illustrate the importance of forming a suitable mentality towards money in one's lifetime; otherwise, sooner or later, you will divorce yourself from your money. "I call this the money mind, a person's IQ can reach 120, 140, or even higher levels, and perhaps some people's minds are good at doing one thing, while others are good at doing another. They can do things that most ordinary people can't do. But I know some very smart people who make very foolish decisions because they lack the money mind." Buffett once said so. The so-called money mind refers to believing in common sense, believing in compound interest, being cautious and rational, thinking independently, prioritizing security over return, not dealing with people with questionable character, not easily guaranteeing for others, not believing in windfall profits, and not trying to cross legal norms for extra benefits. In today's world of ubiquitous information, everyone's wealth may become the "prey" of those with ulterior motives. Only with the money mind, can one form good behavior habits and shield oneself from separating from one's wealth. Do not entrust your wealth easily. Wealth is easy to lose but hard to accumulate, and trust is a vital reason leading to the rapid loss of wealth. "Do not allow anyone else to manage your business unless you can watch their every move closely and understand their behavior; or you have strong reasons to believe in their character and ability. For investors, this criterion determines when you can let someone else make investment decisions for you." Graham's criterion written eighty years ago is so clear. Almost all the investors who lost their wealth in the financial products have violated the above two criteria. They did not have the ability to closely supervise the whereabouts of their funds, nor did they have sufficient reasons to believe in the character of the product issuers. They easily invested their own wealth solely based on others' glib tongue and a piece of commitment paper. They did not act as gatekeepers of their own wealth and ended up with nothing left even if the government punished the wrongdoers. "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." This is a phrase Munger often says. Destiny must be in one's own hands, and investors with a suitable money mind will try their best to find suspicious points in their investments to protect the safety of their principal. For example, whether the manager is trustworthy, whether the underlying assets are profitable, whether oneself can timely monitor the risks in the investment process, and whether the sales staff is obtaining large commissions. As long as any unreliable signs are found, these investors firmly will not invest their money. Do not desire to get rich quick. As in the capital market and anywhere else, making money is not easy, and desiring to get rich quick will lead to quick loss of wealth. In the capital market, the desire to get rich quickly often leads to investors over-allocating specific stocks, industries, or assets at the worst time. For example, buying high-risk stocks that can gain huge returns once an adventure succeeds, but the chance of success is very small, also known as "whispering stocks" by legendary fund manager Peter Lynch. "They often tell investors a story with explosive effects. These 'whispering stocks' have a hypnotic effect on people, and it is easy for you to believe that the story the company tells has an emotional appeal that can easily confuse you." This is like hearing a very tempting "sizzling" sound, making you salivate, but you did not notice that there is no steak on the grill. In the eyes of investors who lack the money mind, stable yield provided by blue chips such as China Yangtze Power cannot meet their demands. However, historical experience clearly shows that buying stocks lacking in safety solely based on imagined high yields is unwise. The long-term average investment return of general stocks is 9%-10%, which is also the average investment return of stock indexes in history, a benchmark to measure one's investment performance and the benchmark to measure fund investment performance.
Author: Shi Qian. Will this be the arrival of the "real wolf"? The consumption tax rumors suddenly spread in various investment groups yesterday after the close of trading. There are reports that a trillion-level consumption tax reform will be approaching, and luxury goods and high-end services may be the first to test. As of the close of trading this morning, consumer stocks suddenly rebounded collectively, and retail and duty-free areas led the rise. Among them,

The virtual currency market in recent days has taken people by surprise. If, yesterday, the market was a light rain, then today's market is a storm. Today, bitcoin has plummeted more than 8%, and major currencies such as Ethereum have fallen by more than 10%. Over the past 24 hours, more than 0.23 million people have been forced out of their positions, with losses amounting to more than 0.68 billion US dollars.

Analysts believe that this virtual currency market downturn may be related to geopolitical elections and supply. The operators of the power-hungry computers that support the Bitcoin blockchain are still suffering from the financial impact of the so-called halving in April, which limits their acquisition of new tokens through work. One of these Bitcoin miners' coping measures is to sell part of their token inventory. In addition, demand for bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States has declined, while the government is dealing with confiscated tokens.

A massive decline throughout.

Bitcoin has fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day, dropping to the lowest level since February on Friday, and is expected to record its worst weekly performance in a year. Ether, XRP, and Cardano, among other small currencies, fell further, with most of the decline exceeding 10%.

Over the past 24 hours, a total of 234,880 people have been forced out of their positions, with a total forced-out amount of 0.682 billion US dollars. The largest single forced-out was in Binance—ETHUSDT, worth $18.4832 million.

Some analysts believe that bitcoin's continued decline may be due to the many twists and turns of the US presidential election and signs that tokens seized by the German government have been transferred to exchanges. Global market investors are all playing the US election game, with US President Biden possibly succumbing to pressure from within his party and political donors and dropping out of the race. This could give rise to another possibility: the emergence of a new, stronger competitor in the Democratic Party. Although President Trump previously declared his support for cryptocurrencies, the newly emerging Democratic contender may not be supportive.

In addition, Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund Digital Asset Capital Management, said the bigger reason for bitcoin's short-term weakness is the unresolved issue of Mt. Gox compensation and government sales. In recent days, traders have been weighing the risks of US and German government measures against confiscated bitcoins. Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that a wallet associated with Germany transferred tokens worth about $75 million to exchanges on Thursday, the latest in a series of transfers.

Coinglass data shows that over the past three days, bullish bets worth more than 0.8 billion US dollars in cryptocurrencies have been liquidated, making it one of the largest scale liquidations since April.

Caroline Mauron, co-founder of the digital asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets, said that poor liquidity over the weekend will exacerbate any fluctuations caused by liquidation, even small ones. The return of US investors after the July 4 holiday may help bring some stability.

A change of landscape in the virtual currency ecosystem.

In fact, signs appeared yesterday that sellers were testing the 200-day moving average (blue line) below. This is the main reason for breaking through the May low point today and continuing the momentum. The deeper reason behind this may be the changing landscape of the virtual currency ecosystem.

The recent halving of mining rewards, which plummeted Bitcoin miners into a financial abyss. Since then, miner revenue has dropped by 63%, from $79 million per day to just $29 million. CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics platform, has observed many signs of miners surrendering. Among the most notable is the 7.7% drop in hash rates since the halving, indicating that it is becoming increasingly difficult for miners to carry on. Savvy investors often view miner surrender as a buying signal. In fact, when miners are forced to sell their bitcoins to cover their costs, it can put even greater downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin than expected.

CryptoQuant's data shows that miners are accelerating the sale of their bitcoin reserves. The daily BTC outflow from miners' wallets has reached the highest level since May, indicating large-scale selling. This phenomenon can be interpreted as a sign that miners are in despair due to falling incomes, preferring to liquidate assets rather than continue to operate at a loss.

According to the trading director of market-making and algorithmic trading company Auros, the range of $51,000 to $52,000 is critical because many Bitcoin miners are reaching the breakeven point for mining.

In addition, yesterday, the brokerage firm China reported that Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, suddenly planned to stop trading services for the following six currency pairs: BTC/AEUR, ETH/AEUR, AI/TUSD, CHR/BNB, GAS/FDUSD, LQTY/FDUSD, with the revision to take effect on July 5. The company did not disclose the specific reasons for the delisting, but did remind users that it regularly reviews all listed spot trading pairs and removes some trading pairs with poor liquidity or other factors. This practice has previously led to a sharp decline in related currencies.

Of particular note, currently, with the previous decline of gold and the recent plummet of virtual currencies, among most global assets, only MSCI's global equity index is still hovering near historic highs, and the short-term (30-day) correlation between Bitcoin and the index is decreasing. So, the question arises: is risk management of virtual currencies an isolated incident or does it signal a period of volatile mainstream investment?

Editor / jayden