Incident: On July 4, 2024, the company announced a new low-altitude surveillance radar product, and officially publicly released a self-developed new Ku-band dual-polarized active phased array radar to achieve “low, low and slow targets” + “low altitude microweather” target monitoring.
Key points of investment
The launch of low-altitude radar products is an important step in the company's low-altitude layout: Narei Radar first publicly released its self-developed TDKFT0104 Ku-band active active phased array radar on July 4, 2024. This radar integrates dual polarization full phase sensor technology, intelligent radar data processing, and multi-source data fusion technology. It has all-weather, active, multi-target and detailed detection capabilities, especially for “low, slow targets” and “low-altitude micrometeorology.” It can actively detect, identify, track and locate targets such as birds and drones within a range of 5 km, and can provide three-dimensional low-altitude micrometeorological information with ultra-high spatio-temporal resolution within 30 km. The radar has a wide range of applications, including three-dimensional traffic, border protection, airspace management, etc., and has the potential to be further used in scenarios such as coastal and sea surveillance and airport bird repelling.
The new product is in the early stages of development and is expected to enhance the company's performance in the future: the release of the TDKFT0104 radar not only showcased the company's strength in technological innovation, but also enhanced the company's market competitiveness by enriching the product line and broadening product application scenarios. The launch of new products will help the company consolidate and enhance its core competitiveness in related fields, and will have a positive impact on the company's future business development and market position. Since the new product is still in the early stages of development and has not received orders from customers, it is expected to increase the company's performance in the future.
Low-altitude peripheral surveillance equipment is expected to gradually be implemented, and higher flight freedom will require more complex technical support for navigation and monitoring: the surveillance part of the air traffic control system is critical, and it ensures the safety, order and efficiency of air traffic. The surveillance system tracks key information such as the position, speed, and altitude of the aircraft in real time through radar and other technical means, so that ground personnel can accurately grasp the dynamics of air traffic. Currently, “phenomena such as black flight, random flight, and blind collision of drones” are quite common, and pose a great threat to the safety of low-altitude flight. The company's new radar products can effectively detect such “low, small and slow targets”. Therefore, low-altitude surveillance is the most urgent in low-altitude infrastructure construction, and the company's new products are in line with the future development direction of the low-altitude economy.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The new products released by the company are in line with the trend of low-altitude economic development. Considering the order rhythm of the traditional main business and the low-altitude economy, we are optimistic about the company's long-term development opportunities. We maintain a net profit forecast value of 0.229/0.414/0.54 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding PE of 46/25/19 times, respectively, maintaining an “increase” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Radar product development cycle is long, R&D investment is high, and R&D risk is high; 2) Business performance fluctuates seasonally; 3) Competitor strength increases and market competition intensifies; 4) government funding is reduced.