Maintain a rating of "outperforming the market" for the computer industry and continue to be bullish on the three main lines of AI, data elements, and industrial digitalization.
Zhongtong Finance APP learned that Guolian Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a rating of "outperforming the market" for the computer industry and continues to be bullish on the three main lines of AI, data elements, and industrial digitalization. It recommends paying attention to the development of quantum technology: 1) AI terminals and applications are gradually landing, computing power demand is increasing, and domestic computing power ecology is accelerating development; 2) Data element policies are continuously released, and industry potential is accumulating. Related system construction demands such as data asset management and authorization operation will increase. 3) Power informationization, transportation informationization, space-time information industry, etc. are expected to benefit from capital expenditure growth.
Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:
Artificial intelligence: Terminals and applications are gradually landing.
NVIDIA's computing power performance has been improved, Huawei has launched a domestic computing power system, and large model iterative upgrades further promote the demand for computing power. According to IDC's prediction, the scale of China's AI server market will reach US$9.1 billion in 2023 and US$13.4 billion in 2027, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 21.8%, entering the stage of rapid growth in the market. Large model multi-modal capabilities continue to improve, and costs gradually decrease. Mobile phones, computers, the Internet of Things, and robots benefit from the double increase in penetration rates and prosperity of intelligence. AI applications at the C and B ends are gradually landing.
Quantum technology: Expected to bring revolutionary changes.
Quantum technology is the frontier field of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. Countries attach great importance to the development of quantum technology. China has accelerated the introduction of policies to support the development of quantum technology, while the United States has added 22 entities related to Chinese quantum computing to the "entity list." Quantum technology has a broad application space. IDC predicts that global spending on quantum computing technology (including hardware, software, and as-a-service solutions) is expected to increase from US$1.1 billion in 2022 to US$7.6 billion in 2027, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 48.1%. The industry may enter a period of rapid growth.
Data elements: Industry potential is accumulating.
With the release of the "20 Data Regulations" and the establishment of the National Bureau of Statistics, more than 10 policy documents such as the "Action Plan for the digitalization of 'Data Elements ×' (2024-2026)" have been successively promulgated, and China's data elements have entered a new stage of development. In January 2024, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Data Asset Management," and local governments have initially explored the mechanism of public data authorization and operation, which is expected to drive the demand for related system construction. Data products are expected to form a DaaS business model with high business elasticity. Scenes where data element values are easy to quantify will land first, such as finance, the Internet, and other fields.
Industrial digitalization: Focus on high prosperity tracks.
(1) The electricity reform continues to promote the investment in power grid infrastructure, and the smart grid is an important part of the new power system, and the investment ratio is expected to increase. (2) Railway investment growth rate is gradually recovering, and the scale of informationization market is expected to increase; Car-road-cloud integration scale construction has begun. (3) Low-altitude economic policies are intensively released, and the space-time information industry is expected to benefit from low-altitude economic infrastructure construction.
Investment advice:
The bank maintains a rating of "outperforming the market" for the computer industry and continues to be bullish on the three main lines of AI, data elements, and industrial digitalization, and recommends paying attention to the development of quantum technology:
1) AI terminals and applications are gradually landing, computing power demand is increasing, and domestic computing power ecology is accelerating development. Recommended stocks: Dawning Information Industry (603019.SH), Unisplendour Corporation Limited (000938.SZ), Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc (688111.SH), and Thunder Software Technology (300496.SZ).
2) Data element policies are continuously released, and industry potential is accumulating. Related system construction demands such as data asset management and authorization operation will increase.
3) Power informationization, transportation informationization, space-time information industry, etc. are expected to benefit from capital expenditure growth.
Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected, supply chain security risks, AI technology development evolution is lower than expected, the implementation of related policies is lower than expected, etc.