Technology stocks are the biggest winners in the first half of the year, how does the US stock market view the future?

来源：港股解码

自2022年3月美联储开启加息以来，美债利率和美联储政策利率同步走高。有不少投资者认为，随着美债利率大幅走高，美债相对美股的性价比会不断提升，再加上2023年美股主要靠估值驱动上涨后估值已经不低，吸引力或将大打折扣。

不过，数据却显示，2024年上半年，美股市场继续高歌猛进，$道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$累涨3.93%，$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$期内的涨幅也远超历史平均水平，$纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$更是屡创新高，依旧领涨美股。

在指数狂飙的背后，美股市场的哪些情况值得关注？

科技股依旧是最大赢家，英伟达市值半年增1.8万亿

数据显示，上半年涨跌幅排在美股前列的基本都是市值极小的“仙股”，并不具备参考价值。而美股市场的涨跌主要受到头部企业的影响，因此大市值公司的股价表现更有意义。

Wind显示，年初市值排名靠前的多是科技股，包括$微软 (MSFT.US)$、$苹果 (AAPL.US)$、$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$、$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$/$谷歌-C (GOOG.US)$和$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$、$台积电 (TSM.US)$以及$博通 (AVGO.US)$等。

2024年上半年，这些头部企业的股价基本都实现了上涨，其中AI芯片“军火商”英伟达上演了“大象起舞”的戏码，半年飙涨149.50%，主要受业绩及资金的推动；此外，台积电、博通、$Meta Platforms (META.US)$、微软等AI概念股也都录得了不错的涨幅。

不过，在这些头部企业中还有一个“显眼包”，那就是$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$，其股价在今年上半年下跌了20.36%，表现大幅跑输。这也是因为特斯拉在上半年频频出现利空消息，其2024年一季度的净利润也遭遇了腰斩。

2023年美股市场上涨就受到了科技股的显著推动。特别是纳斯达克指数。而在2024年上半年，以英伟达为首的科技股再次充当了推动市场上涨的角色，纳斯达克指数作为以科技股为主要成分的指数，其表现自然更强一些。

值得一提的是，伴随着头部企业股价的上涨，其市值也在飞速膨胀。

Wind数据显示，2024年上半年，合计有15家公司的市值增加值超过千亿美元。其中，英伟达的市值增加了近1.82万亿美元，遥遥领先；此外，微软、谷歌、亚马逊的市值也在上半年增加超过4000亿美元；再往下，Meta、台积电、$礼来 (LLY.US)$、$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$、$伯克希尔-A (BRK.A.US)$/$伯克希尔-B (BRK.B.US)$等公司上半年的市值也都增加逾1000亿美元。

不过，在这些公司中，苹果的表现其实算不上太好。年初时其市值高居美股第一，达到2.99万亿美元，但由于苹果上半年股价仅上涨9.68%，导致其市值仅增加2352.93亿美元，明显少于微软、谷歌、亚马逊等公司。

另一边，也有一些美股企业的市值在上半年缩水了。

Wind数据显示，上半年，仅有特斯拉的市值缩水超过千亿美元，达1588.20亿美元，这是因为该公司的市值位居前列，股价跌幅也较大。

此外，$英特尔 (INTC.US)$市值缩水800.15亿美元，位居第二。上半年虽然科技股经历了普涨狂潮，但是英特尔是个例外，其股价在上半年下跌了37.94%。有投资者称，英特尔是AI时代的边缘旁观者，其一季度业绩指引也大幅不及市场预期。

上半年市值缩水超过200亿美元的还有$耐克 (NKE.US)$、$波音 (BA.US)$、$麦当劳 (MCD.US)$、$强生 (JNJ.US)$、$Adobe (ADBE.US)$、$星巴克 (SBUX.US)$等16家公司。

分红和回购引关注，苹果“大撒钱”

回购和分红一向被视为是美股上涨的“助推器”，上半年市场表现亮眼也有回购和分红的功劳。

Wind数据显示，虽然苹果上半年涨得不算太多，但是公司在回购方面表现出色，期内回购金额逾235亿美元；Meta、谷歌上半年的回购金额也都超过百亿美元；“AI领头羊”英伟达的回购金额也达到了97.79亿美元；中概股$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$在上半年也回购了47.86亿美元，位居前列。

从目前披露的数据来看，苹果、谷歌、英伟达、$富国银行 (WFC.US)$等少数位于名单头部的企业贡献了绝大部分的回购金额，尚有大量企业仅少量回购或不回购。

而在分红方面，$汇丰控股 (HSBC.US)$的表现最为亮眼，上半年分红金额达到117.44亿美元；微软也在上半年分红超过百亿美元现金；此外，苹果不仅花费了大量资金回购，其上半年的现金分红也达到75.40亿美元，$诺华制药 (NVS.US)$、$埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$、博通等公司的现金分红也排在名单前列。

和回购的情况一样，名单上的少量头部企业贡献了大部分的现金分红，还有很多企业没有在上半年进行现金分红。

下半年的美股市场如何看待？

值得注意的是，近两年美股市场表现强势，有一些投资者及机构认为美股积累了大量风险，迟早要暴跌，但是也有一些投资者和机构依然在疯狂唱多，多空之争非常激烈。

据悉，近日，高盛、摩根大通纷纷唱空美股，认为不断扩大的财政赤字和涨幅的高度集中正在不断累积风险。

据媒体报道，BCA Research首席全球策略师Peter Berezin近日在报告中表示，将标普500指数的年度目标位下调至3750点，低于摩根大通4200点的预测值，要知道摩根大通已经是一众投行中对标普年底目标位预测的最低水平。

此前，美国知名对冲基金经理Doug Kass对美股发出了警告。

而在另一边，全球最大规模资管巨头贝莱德，以及欧洲资管巨头法国巴黎银行资产管理机构等全球大型资管机构的基金经理和市场策略师们纷纷表示，预计人工智能将成为今年下半年全球股市的最重要投资主题之一，也是驱动股市创新高的核心驱动力。

甚至有经济学家预言，基于AI技术发展的乐观情绪推动下的额外多重扩张预期，将推动美股基准指数——标普500指数在2025年创下7000点这一历史峰值。

编辑/jayden

Source: Hong Kong Decoding Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, US bond yields and Federal Reserve policy rates have risen in tandem. Many investors believe that as US bond yields rise sharply, the cost-effectiveness of US bonds relative to US stocks will continue to increase. In addition, as of 2023, the rise of the US stock market will mainly depend on valuation, which is no longer low and may face a big discount.

However, data shows that the US stock market continued to surge in the first half of 2024, rising by 3.93% and far exceeding the historical average during the period, still leading the US stock market. Behind the surge in the index, what is worth paying attention to in the US stock market?

Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$Up by 3.93%.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The increase during the period far exceeded the historical average level.$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$Continuing to hit new highs, technology stocks are still the biggest winners, and the market value of Nvidia has increased by 1.8 trillion in half a year.

Behind the soaring index, what are the situations worth paying attention to in the US stock market?

Technology stocks are still the biggest winners, and the market value of Nvidia has increased by 1.8 trillion in half a year.

Data shows that the stocks with the top price movements in the first half of the year are mostly “magic stocks” with extremely small market values, and are not meaningful for reference. Therefore, the stock price performance of large market cap companies is more meaningful.

According to Wind, the top market cap companies at the beginning of the year were mostly technology stocks, including$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$, $Apple (AAPL.US)$, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$/$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$and $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$etc.

In the first half of 2024, the stock prices of these leading enterprises have basically risen. Among them, AI chip “arms dealer” Nvidia staged a “big elephant dance” drama, with a half-year increase of 149.50%, mainly driven by performance and funds; in addition, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Apple, and Microsoft, etc., also recorded good gains in AI concept stocks.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$However, there is still a "conspicuous part" among these leading enterprises, which is Tesla, whose stock price has fallen by 20.36% in the first half of this year, and its performance has greatly lagged behind. This is also because Tesla has frequently encountered bearish news in the first half of the year, and its net income for the first quarter of 2024 has also been slashed.

The rise of the US stock market in 2023 was significantly driven by technology stocks, especially the Nasdaq index. In the first half of 2024, technology stocks led by Nvidia once again played the role of driving the market up. As an index mainly composed of technology stocks, the performance of the Nasdaq index is naturally stronger. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$It is worth mentioning that with the rise of the stock prices of leading enterprises, their market value is also expanding rapidly. Wind data shows that in the first half of 2024, the combined market cap of 15 companies increased by more than 100 billion US dollars. Among them, Nvidia's market value increased by nearly 1.82 trillion US dollars, far ahead.

In addition, the market value of companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon also increased by more than 400 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of the year; lower down, companies such as Meta, TSMC, Broadcom, etc. also increased by more than 100 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of the year.

However, among these companies, Apple's performance is actually not too good. At the beginning of the year, its market value was the highest in the US stock market, reaching 2.99 trillion US dollars. However, due to Apple's stock price only rising by 9.68% in the first half of the year, its market value increased by only 235.293 billion US dollars, which is significantly less than Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and other companies.

On the other hand, there are also some US stocks whose market cap has shrunk in the first half of the year.$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$, $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$/$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$However, the percentage changes of the market value of these companies are not meaningful due to their large market capitalization.

The source of this article is Hong Kong Decoding.

From Wind.

According to Wind data, Tesla's market cap shrunk by over $100 billion in the first half of the year, reaching $158.82 billion, as the company's market cap was among the highest and its stock price fell significantly.

In addition,$Intel (INTC.US)$With a market cap shrinking of $80.015 billion, Intel ranks second. Although technology stocks experienced a general surge in the first half of the year, Intel was an exception, with its stock price falling by 37.94%. Some investors commented that Intel was a bystander to the edge of the AI era, and its Q1 performance guidance was significantly below market expectations.

There are also more than 20 companies whose market capitalization shrank by over $20 billion in the first half of the year. $Nike (NKE.US)$, $Boeing (BA.US)$, mcdonald's (MCD.US) , $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$, $Adobe (ADBE.US)$, $Starbucks (SBUX.US)$and 16 other companies.

Returning capital to shareholders garnered attention, Apple's "big spending".

Share repurchases and dividends have always been seen as the "booster" for US stocks' rise, and their market performance in the first half of the year was helped by repurchases and dividends.

According to Wind data, although Apple did not see a big increase in the first half of the year, the company performed well in terms of repurchases, with a repurchase amount exceeding $23.5 billion during the period. Meta and Google also had repurchase amounts exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year, and NVIDIA, the "AI leader," had a repurchase amount of $9.779 billion. Chinese concept stocks also repurchased $4.786 billion in the first half of the year, ranking high on the list. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$From the data currently disclosed, few enterprises at the top of the list, such as Apple, Google, NVIDIA, and others, contributed the vast majority of the repurchase amount, while many other enterprises did little or no repurchasing in the first half of the year.

In terms of dividends, Pfizer's performance was the most outstanding, with a dividend amount of $11.744 billion in the first half of the year; Microsoft also distributed over $10 billion in cash dividends in the first half of the year; in addition, in addition to spending a lot of money on repurchasing, Apple's cash dividends in the first half of the year reached $7.54 billion, as did Novartis AG, Broadcom, and other companies' cash dividends ranking high on the list. $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$Like the repurchase situation, a small number of enterprises at the top of the list contributed the majority of the cash dividend amount, with many other enterprises either doing very little or no cash dividends in the first half of the year.

How does the US stock market view the second half of the year? $HSBC Holdings (HSBC.US)$It is worth noting that the US stock market has performed strongly in the past two years, and some investors and institutions see that the US stock market has accumulated a lot of risk and is bound to collapse sooner or later, but some investors and institutions are still fervently bullish and the bull-bear battle is very intense. $Novartis AG (NVS.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$According to reports, BCA Research's Chief Global Strategy Officer Peter Berezin recently lowered the annual target for the S&P 500 index to 3,750, lower than JPMorgan's forecast of 4,200 points. Note that JPMorgan's forecast is the lowest among many investment banks' end-of-year target predictions for the S&P.

In the same way as with repurchases, the few firms at the top of the list contributed to the majority of the cash dividend amounts, whereas many other firms did little to no cash dividends in the first six months.

How will the US stock market perform in the second half of the year?

It is worth noting that the US stock market has performed strongly in the past two years, and some investors and institutions see that the US stock market has accumulated a lot of risk and is bound to collapse sooner or later, but some investors and institutions are still fervently bullish and the bull-bear battle is very intense.

Recently, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have been singing a bearish tune about the US stock market. They believe that the ever-increasing fiscal deficit and the high concentration of gains are accumulating risks.

According to reports, BCA Research's Chief Global Strategy Officer Peter Berezin recently lowered the annual target for the S&P 500 index to 3,750, lower than JPMorgan's forecast of 4,200 points. Note that JPMorgan's forecast is the lowest among many investment banks' end-of-year target predictions for the S&P.

Previously, famous American hedge fund manager Doug Kass issued a warning about the US stock market.

On the other hand, fund managers and market strategists from global large asset management institutions such as BlackRock, the world's largest asset management giant, and BNP Paribas Asset Management in Europe, have stated that artificial intelligence is expected to become one of the most important investment themes of the global stock market in the second half of this year, and is also a core driving force behind the market's record high.

Even some economists predict that the optimistic expectations of multiple expansion based on AI technology development will push the S&P 500 index, a benchmark index of the US stock market, to reach its historical peak of 7,000 points in 2025.

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

科技股成上半年最大赢家，美股后市如何看待？