Dynam Japan HD Research Memo (10): The domination of major pachinko halls is progressing, providing a good opportunity for expansion of their share for the next few years.

Fisco Japan · Jul 4 17:10

■ダイナムジャパンホールディングス<06889/HK>のパチンコ市場の動向と今後の見通し

パチンコ市場はレジャーの多様化が進んだことや、のめり込み対策として射幸性を抑える規制強化を実施してきたこともあり、長期縮小トレンドが続いている。(公財)日本生産性本部がまとめた「レジャー白書2023」によれば、2022年のパチンコ・パチスロ参加人口は、770万人と2年連続で増加したものの、コロナ禍前となる2019年の890万人までは回復しておらず、市場規模（貸玉料）も14.6兆円と2年連続で横ばい水準にとどまった。2002年（2,170万人、30.4兆円）と比較すると参加人口で35%、市場規模で48%の水準まで落ち込んだことになる。

こうした状況を反映して、パチンコ・パチスロホールの店舗数も減少傾向を辿ってきたが、コロナ禍で経営状況が一段と厳しくなり、さらに2022年のスマート遊技機の登場で資金需要も高まるなかで投資余力のない中小ホールの閉店も加速し、2023年12月末の店舗数は前年比582店舗減の7,083店と、1995年と比較して約4割の水準まで落ち込んだ※。遊技機の設置台数についてもパチンコ機が前年比5.8%減の2,077千台、パチスロ機が同0.8%減の1,347千台といずれも減少傾向が続いた。パチスロ機の減少が小幅にとどまったのは、スマスロの好調が要因となっている。

※出所：警察庁「令和5年における風俗営業等の現状と風俗関係事犯の取締り状況等について」

ただ、経済産業省の「特定サービス産業動態統計調査」によれば、パチンコホールの売上高（貸玉収入）は2022年度第1四半期（4-6月）に前年同期比でプラスに転じて以降、8四半期連続で1ケタ増と緩やかながらも回復基調が続いている。市場全体が伸びていないのは撤退・閉店する企業が続いていることが要因と見ることができる。

こうしたなか、業界では経営体力のある大手企業の寡占化が今後一段と進むものと予想される。実際、店舗数上位5社の市場占有率は2018年末の約11%から2023年末は約15%に上昇した。大手5社も2020年以降、店舗数は減少しているものの、経営破綻し現在再建中の(株)ガイアを除けば小幅な減少にとどまっている。業界における1店舗当たりの遊技機平均設置台数の推移を見ると、2018年末時点の428台から2023年末は483台と年々上昇傾向となっており、大型店舗を運営できる大手企業の寡占化が進んでいることが推察される。ちなみに、同社グループにおける2024年3月末時点の1店舗当たり平均設置台数は493台と業界平均をやや上回る水準である。

今回、スマスロの導入を契機に市場も回復に向かい、明るい兆しが見え始めてきた。業界にとっては1992年に導入されたCR機（プリペイドカード対応機種の導入）以来の大変革となる。当時はCR機の導入によって市場が活性化した経緯があり、市場環境が違うと言えども業界の期待度は大きい。特に、2024年はスマパチのLT機能が規制緩和されたことで、業界全体で4%強の設置率がどの程度まで上昇するかが注目される。最終的には、顧客を惹きつけるだけの魅力ある機種をメーカーが開発できるかどうか、ホール側にとってはホスピタリティも含めたサービス品質の維持向上を図り、リピート客や新規顧客層をいかに獲得できるかが成長のカギを握ることになる。

（執筆：フィスコ客員アナリスト　佐藤　譲）

<06889/HK>■Dynam Japan Holdings' Pachinko Market Trends and Future Prospects

The pachinko market continues to shrink over a long period of time due to the diversification of leisure activities and the strengthening of regulations to suppress shooting as a countermeasure against immersion. According to the “Leisure White Paper 2023” compiled by the Japan Productivity Center, although the population participating in pachinko/pachislot in 2022 increased to 7.7 million for 2 consecutive years, it has not recovered to 8.8 million people in 2019, which is before the COVID-19 pandemic, and the market size (ball rental fee) also remained flat at 14.6 trillion yen for 2 consecutive years. Compared to 2002 (21.7 million people, 30.4 trillion yen), it has fallen to a level of 35% in the participating population and 48% in terms of market size.

Reflecting this situation, the number of pachinko and pachislot parlor stores has also followed a downward trend, but the business situation became even more severe due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the closing of small to medium halls with no investment capacity accelerated as demand for funds increased with the advent of smart game machines in 2022, and the number of stores at the end of 2023/12 fell to 7,083 stores, a decrease of 582 stores compared to the previous year*. As for the number of game machines installed, the downward trend continued, with pachinko machines falling 5.8% from the previous year to 2,077,000 units, and pachislot machines falling 0.8% to 1,347,000 units. The reason why the decline in pachislot machines remained small was due to strong sales of smart slots.

* Source: National Police Agency “Current Status of Sex Businesses etc. in Reiwa 5 and the Enforcement Status of Sex Related Crimes, etc.”

However, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry's “Specific Service Industry Dynamic Statistics Survey”, since pachinko parlor sales (ball loan revenue) turned positive in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 (April-6) compared to the same period last year, the recovery trend continued, albeit moderately, with 1 digit increase for 8 consecutive quarters. The reason why the overall market is not growing can be seen as a result of companies continuing to withdraw and close.

Under these circumstances, it is expected that the oligopoly of major companies with management strength will advance further in the future in the industry. In fact, the market share of the top 5 companies in terms of number of stores rose from about 11% at the end of 2018 to about 15% at the end of 2023. Although the number of stores of the five major companies has decreased since 2020, it has only declined slightly except for Gaia Co., Ltd., which has gone bankrupt and is currently undergoing reconstruction. Looking at changes in the average number of game machines installed per store in the industry, there is an upward trend year by year from 428 units as of the end of 2018 to 483 units at the end of 2023, and it is presumed that oligopoly of major companies that can operate large stores is progressing. Incidentally, the average number of units installed per store in the company group as of the end of 2024/3 is 493 units, which is slightly above the industry average.

This time, with the introduction of smart slots, the market is also heading towards recovery, and bright signs have begun to be seen. It has been a major change for the industry since CR machines (introduction of models compatible with prepaid cards) introduced in 1992. At that time, there was a history of market revitalization due to the introduction of CR machines, and even though the market environment was different, industry expectations were high. In particular, since regulations on Sumapachi's LT function were deregulated in 2024, attention is being paid to what extent the installation rate of over 4% will rise in the industry as a whole. Ultimately, the key to growth will be whether manufacturers can develop models that are attractive enough to attract customers, and how they can maintain and improve service quality, including hospitality, for the hall side, and acquire repeat customers and a new customer base.

(Author: FISCO Visiting Analyst Joe Sato)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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ダイナムジャパンHD Research Memo（10）：パチンコホールは大手の寡占化が進行、数年間はシェア拡大の好機

Dynam Japan HD Research Memo (10): The domination of major pachinko halls is progressing, providing a good opportunity for expansion of their share for the next few years.

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