Intelligent financial APP learned that Guolian Securities released a research report stating that it is expected that the sales of Xpeng-W (09868) in 2024/2025/2026 will be 220,000/610,000/750,000 vehicles, corresponding revenue will be 50.6/98.1/109.3 billion yuan, and net income attributable to mother will be -57/-7/29 billion yuan. It is recommended to continue to pay attention. On July 1, 2024, Xpeng Auto announced its delivery data for June. In June 2024, Xpeng delivered a total of 10,668 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a month-on-month increase of 5%. From January to June 2024, Xpeng delivered a total of 52,028 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 26%. With the launch of new car models, it is expected to usher in a turning point in sales volume. Iterating and launching products with intelligent driving is expected to help the company achieve financial data turnaround.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

Vehicle sales recovery, X9 momentum is good, and overseas markets are expanding.

In May 2024, Xpeng delivered a total of 10,668 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. Among them, Xpeng X9 'nine crowns' delivered 1,687 units, and a total of 13,143 units were delivered since its launch in May. It continues to lead the market for pure electric MPV and pure electric three-row seating car models. In H1 2024, Xpeng delivered a total of 52,028 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 26%. Xpeng's Q2 revenue is expected to exceed 9 billion yuan, with expected quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth. At the same time, Xpeng is expanding into overseas markets in Australia, France, and Egypt. The right-hand drive version of G6 is expected to be delivered to overseas markets in the third quarter of 2024 and is expected to continue to contribute to sales and revenue growth.

Mona made its debut on July 3rd, and the coordinated effort between B-end and C-end is evident.

Mona's first car model, M03, made its official debut on July 3. Xpeng's brand is expected to launch its next model in Q4, with a dense cycle of new car launches. Mona's sub-brand represents 'madeofnewai' and is expected to become a promoter of AI intelligent driving cars worldwide. Among them, the first car model of Mona's sub-brand is priced in the range of 100,000-150,000 yuan and is positioned as a compact pure electric sedan. Xpeng MONAM03 has created a golden posture that is comparable to a sports car through AI quantitative aesthetics. Xpeng MONAM03 also has the lowest wind resistance coefficient among globally produced cars in the same category, with a wind resistance coefficient of only 0.194. The coordinated effort between B-end and C-end is expected to boost sales.

Intelligent driving accelerates continuously, and end-to-end big models are gradually being adopted.

In June, the XNGP urban intelligent driving monthly active user penetration rate reached 84%. As of May 31, 2024, XNGP has fully covered 283 cities across the country, and the opening range continues to expand. At the same time, XNGP's official road test cumulative mileage has exceeded 6.46 million kilometers, and effective mileage data is expected to continue to accumulate. In July, XNGP will achieve 'can drive everywhere, and drive well everywhere' through a heavyweight OTA, and more end-to-end major model scenarios are expected to achieve landing. In Q3 2024, the AI Tianji system will welcome heavyweight OTA and be officially launched overseas.

Risk Warning: The advancement of intelligent functions is less than expected; the impact of intelligent functions on vehicle sales is less than expected.