According to BMO, Eli Lilly and Co.'s latest approved Alzheimer's drug, Donanemab, may bring the company peak sales of up to 7.1 billion U.S. dollars, and help diversify its revenue sources.

According to Eli Lilly and Co., the drug is also known as Kisunla. Patients receive intravenous infusion of Kisunla once every four weeks, with a selling price of 695.65 U.S. dollars per bottle, a cost of 12,522 U.S. dollars for a six-month course of treatment, 32,000 U.S. dollars for a twelve-month course of treatment, and 48,696 U.S. dollars for an eighteen-month course of treatment. Eli Lilly and Co. stated that eligible patients can receive medical insurance coverage and reimbursement.

The drug is expected to compete with Leqembi, a similar drug from Japan's Taiho Pharmaceutical and Biogen (BIIB.US), which was approved by the FDA in 2023. Reports indicated that the annual cost of Leqembi is about $26,500.

Donanemab and Leqembi are milestones in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. For the past 30 years, people have been working to develop drugs to fight this deadly disease, but all have failed. Both of these drugs target beta-amyloid protein in the brains of Alzheimer's patients, and abnormal deposition of beta-amyloid protein in the brain is one of the main pathological features of Alzheimer's disease, which can slow the progression of early-stage patients. Some analysts expect Donanemab to be more effective than Leqembi, as it showed higher efficacy in trials. Both drugs are administered by intravenous injection. Moreover, Eli Lilly and Co.'s Kisunla only requires injection once every four weeks, while Leqembi requires injection once every two weeks, giving Eli Lilly and Co. an advantage in convenience.

BMO said in a report on Wednesday that "although BMO expects Kisunla's market launch to be as slow as Leqembi's, approval is a meaningful opportunity for the company to expand in the field of neuroscience."

At present, Eli Lilly and Co.'s revenue mainly comes from diabetes drugs. The company's best-selling drug in 2023 is the diabetes drug Trulicity, with sales of $7.1 billion, followed by GLP-1 diabetes treatment and weight loss drug Mounjaro with sales of $5.1 billion. Eli Lilly and Co.'s breast cancer drug Verzenio ranks third with sales of $3.9 billion. Eli Lilly's total revenue in 2023 is $34 billion.

BMO also believes that "having two leading pharmaceutical companies in the Alzheimer's disease treatment paradigm to establish amyloid therapy infrastructure" is advantageous in the Alzheimer's disease market than just one company. BMO added, "The approval of Kisunla may actually benefit the sales of both products."

Meanwhile, SA analyst Stephen Ayers predicts that Kisunla's peak annual sales will be between $2 billion and $5 billion. He also believes that Kisunla has an advantage over Leqembi in part because of its more convenient management schedule. He pointed out that Eli Lilly and Co. can also learn from the issues encountered by Biogen when launching Leqembi, thus gaining a late-mover advantage.

In his latest analysis article, Ayers wrote, "Although drugs like Kisunla and Leqembi face a lot of uncertainty in the Alzheimer's drug market, I believe Eli Lilly's Kisunla is the better choice. Kisunla may add another heavy weight to Eli Lilly's medical arsenal, and investors should appreciate the diversity of therapeutic indications."