The coronary intervention market is in high demand, and collection drives performance recovery
The total number of registered coronary heart disease interventional treatment cases in mainland China in 2023 was 1.6361 million (CAGR of 13.80% from 2017 to 2023). According to Frost & Sullivan data, China's PCI penetration rate in 2021 was 824.1 units/million people, less than one-third of the US penetration rate.
The number of PCI surgeries in China is expected to continue to grow rapidly as the public's ability and willingness to pay for medical care increases, as well as policy support and the availability of interventional cardiovascular surgery.
In the 2023-2025 concentrated supply procurement of coronary stents, the company's HT Supreme and HTInfinity products won bids in Group A and Group B at a price of 779 yuan and 839 yuan respectively, and were selected by more than a thousand hospitals, of which more than 60% of the top three hospitals. In the first year of collection, sales of the company's coronary stent products increased dramatically, and revenue from the coronary intervention business increased 99.10% year-on-year. The coronary business is expected to make a greater contribution to the company's performance in the next 2 years.
On September 14, 2023, the first self-developed coronary artery spinous balloon dilatation catheter in China was approved for marketing. The approval of this product will further enrich the company's diversified product portfolio and enhance the company's core competitiveness.
Core products are about to be approved, and neurological interventions accelerate growth
As the aging process accelerates and lifestyle changes, the incidence of stroke increased from 1.49/0.1 million in 1990 to 2.77/0.1 million in 2019, and the incidence rate is expected to rise further in the future. With the increase in clinical demand, the popularization of related devices, and the promotion of national policies, the size and penetration rate of the neurointerventional device market in China is expected to continue to grow rapidly. According to Frost & Sullivan, it is expected to reach approximately $44.226 billion in 2030 (CAGR of 22.79% from 2025 to 2030).
The surgical penetration rates for hemorrhagic stroke, atherosclerotic stenosis, and acute ischemic stroke in 2020 were 9.1%, 1.0%, and 2.7%, respectively, and are expected to rise to 31.7%, 3.5%, and 19.5% respectively in 2026. Currently, the development of neurointerventional medical device products in China is still in its infancy, and there is great potential for import substitution and product innovation of domestic neurointerventional devices.
Sano Medical's neurological intervention business adheres to the strategic leadership of “deepening ischemia, innovating bleeding, and breaking through pathways”, and has achieved a differentiated layout of all categories in acute ischemia, stenotic ischemia, hemorrhage, and pathways. The Neuro RX, the world's first rapid exchange balloon for intracranial stenosis, was launched in 2016, and the Neuro LPS, the world's first low-pressure rapid exchange balloon for intracranial stenosis, was launched in 2020. In 2021, the world's first drug-eluting stent dedicated to the treatment of intracranial artery stenosis, NOVA was launched.
Among the products under development, the world's first self-inflating drug stent independently developed by the company completed clinical enrollment in February 2023. At the end of March 2024, the product passed the innovative medical device approval by the State Drug Administration; coated blood flow-guided dense mesh stents completed all pre-marketing clinical trials in July 2023, and the new product is expected to provide a new increase in the company's performance growth.
Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 0.453 billion /0.643 billion/0.936 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.07%/41.75%/45.60%, respectively; net profit to mother is 0.007 billion/0.046 billion/ 0.08 billion yuan, respectively, up 117.44%/559.39%/75.06%, respectively; EPS respectively 0.02/0.11/0.19. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of failure or delay in registration of new products, risk of loss of research talent, risk of market competition, risk of industry policy changes, etc.