Source: Wall Street See News Author: Huang Yu
JPMorgan's Chief Strategist Marko Kolanovic initially bullish sentiment led to a big drop in the US stock market. However, when he turned bearish, the US stock market rose sharply, making him a perfect "contrarian indicator".
Is there really a "contrarian indicator" in the market? Yes, and he is also JPMorgan's chief strategist.
According to media reports, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief global market strategist, will resign, ending a 19-year tenure, and the key reason for his departure may be a series of erroneous judgments on US stocks during his tenure.
At the beginning of 2022, when the S&P 500 index hit a period high, Kolanovic was bullish all the way in January of that year, and advised clients to significantly increase their holdings of US stocks. As a result, the S&P 500 index fell from January to October, dropping by nearly 20% in total.
The most amazing thing is that Kolanovic started to change his mind at the end of September 2022, and turned bearish on US stocks, and advised clients to reduce their holdings of US stocks. As a result, the S&P 500 began to rise from the lowest point in October, and has been rising ever since, with a cumulative increase of more than 50%. However, Kolanovic still insists on a bearish view of US stocks, and can be said to have perfectly missed a big wave of rising trends.
Since then, some people have found that Kolanovic, as a market "contrarian indicator", has surprisingly high accuracy, even to the point where market professionals jokingly say that before Kolanovic becomes bullish on US stocks, the rising trend of US stocks will not end.
Today, Kolanovic and some JPMorgan strategists still insist on being bearish on US stocks. Last week, they reiterated their bearish forecast, predicting that the S&P 500 index will fall by nearly 25% by the end of the year, and emphasized the "terrifying" phenomenon of the current lack of breadth in the US stock market.
"Since 2023, we have been thinking that it's difficult for the US economy to achieve a soft landing result. In fact, under the continuous influence of high interest rates, it's more likely that there will be a 'non-landing' situation until restrictive monetary policies and a weak macro background hinder economic growth. Although we prefer large-cap stocks, we still underestimated the elasticity of the six giants in the US stock market in terms of price momentum and profit revision."
I wonder about the outcome of his prediction this time.
A JPMorgan spokesperson said that after Kolanovic's departure, Hussein Malik will become the sole head of the global research department. He had previously served as co-head with Kolanovic.
According to insiders, Kolanovic graduated from New York University with a PhD in theoretical high-energy physics, and worked at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch before joining JPMorgan. He is now "exploring other opportunities".
Editor/Lambor