According to the app of Zhitong Finance, the three major indices rose and fell differently on the eve of American Independence Day, and the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq hit new historical highs again. The US announced several weak economic data, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yields on 5 to 10-year US Treasury bonds fell more than 10 basis points during the day. The US stock market will be closed on Independence Day on July 4th.

At the close, the Dow Jones fell 23.85 points, or 0.06%, to 39,308.00; the Nasdaq rose 159.54 points or 0.88% to 18,188.30; and the S&P 500 rose 28.01 points or 0.51% to 5,537.02. During the trading day, the S&P 500 index rose to a high of 5,539.27 points and the Nasdaq rose to a high of 18,188.30 points, both hitting new intraday highs. Tesla (TSLA.US) closed up 6.54% for the seventh consecutive day of gains.

Major European stock indices rose, with Germany's DAX30 index up more than 1%, the UK's FTSE100 index up 0.61%, France's CAC40 index up more than 1%, and Europe's STOXX50 index up more than 1.2%.

The Nikkei 225 index rose more than 1%, the Jakarta Composite Index rose 0.49%, the Vietnam VN30 Index rose 0.73%, and the Straits Times Index in Singapore rose 1.4%.

COMEX gold futures rose 1.37%, closing at $2,365.4/ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 3.87%, closing at $30.805/ounce.

Bitcoin fell more than 3% to $60,056.9 per coin; ether fell more than 3.8% to $3,284.96 per coin.

WTI August crude oil futures rose $1.07, or more than 1.29%, to $83.88 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $1.10, or more than 1.27%, to $87.34 per barrel.

London metals rose and fell, with copper up 0.4%, aluminum up 0.06%, nickel down more than 1.7%, and zinc down 0.29%.

Macro news

The US added 150,000 jobs in the "small non-farm" ADP in June. ADP added jobs for the third consecutive month, bringing good news to the Federal Reserve. The ADP research institute in the United States released a report showing that the number of US ADP jobs increased by 150,000, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and slightly lower than the previous value of 152,000. This is the third consecutive month that ADP employment has declined, and it is the lowest level in four months. Specifically, the service industry once again became the industry with the most new jobs added, with the service industry adding 136,000 new jobs in June, far more than the 14,000 in manufacturing. At the same time, the wages of retained employees in June increased by 4.9% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since August 2021. The salary increase of job-hopping employees has also slowed down, to 7.7%.

The US service industry shrank at its fastest rate in four years. In June, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded 48.8, a new low since May 2020, lower than the expected 52.5. Due to the sharp decline in business activities and orders, the US service industry experienced its fastest contraction in four years in June. This data showed a sudden and significant reversal compared to last month, when the index rose to a nine-month high. The deterioration of the service industry index in June further proved that the economy is showing more signs of losing momentum. The service industry is the largest component of the US economy. Coupled with the continuous decline of the ISM manufacturing index for the third consecutive month earlier this week, the organization’s survey of service providers shows that due to high borrowing costs, a cooling of business investment, and uneven consumer spending, demand is under greater pressure. At the same time, an index measuring the prices of raw materials paid by service providers fell to a three-month low, indicating that inflation is gradually cooling down. The price payment index fell from 58.1 to 56.3, while the employment index fell from 47.1 to 46.1.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: The Federal Reserve is waiting for "more information" to gain confidence in interest rate cuts. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials thought it was inappropriate to lower borrowing costs until they had "more information to make them more confident" that inflation was moving towards the 2% target. "The vast majority" of Federal Reserve officials evaluated that economic growth "seems to be gradually cooling," and most participants said they believed that the current policy stance was restrictive. Officials said that the monthly increase in core personal consumption expenditure price index was small, indicating that inflation has made significant progress, and this is supported by CPI data in May.

Fed Chairman Powell will attend hearings of both houses of Congress on July 9-10. Fed Chairman Powell will go to Capitol Hill next week to attend hearings of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee. Powell is scheduled to deliver semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the Senate panel at 10 am Tuesday, July 9 (10 pm Beijing time), and the House committee said it would hear Powell's remarks on Wednesday, July 10, at 10 am (10 pm Beijing time) Tuesday. According to Fed officials' estimates, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates at some point this year and is also studying major reforms to bank capital rules. Lawmakers may put pressure on Powell next week on these two issues.

The 30-year mortgage rate in the United States rose for the first time in five weeks. US mortgage rates climbed for the first time since the end of May. Fitch said in a statement on Wednesday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.95%, up from 6.86% last week. After falling for four consecutive weeks, the rise in mortgage rates has weakened the purchasing power of buyers who have had a hard time finding ideal and affordable properties. Builders have been trying to help fill the inventory gap, but they face greater pressures recently. Some properties, especially those that are not immediately available for occupancy, stay on the market longer, causing sellers to lower their prices. Sam Khater, chief economist at Fitch, said in a statement: "We still expect rates to moderate in the second half of this year, and with increasing inventory, price growth should slow, which is a good sign for interested buyers."

"Fed Whisperer": Fed officials indicate no urgency to cut rates. Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," said that some decision-makers urged close attention to signs of labor market fatigue faster than expected as inflation rose, making Fed officials not confident enough to cut interest rates last month. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed, "Several participants indicated that monetary policy should be prepared to respond to unexpected economic weakness at any time." The officials also cited several economic developments, including slower wage growth, declining corporate pricing power, and increased consumer sensitivity to price increases, to support their expectations that inflation will continue to decline over the next year. The minutes of the meeting showed that officials were generally satisfied with their stance on interest rate changes and emphasized a range of views that could prompt the Fed to raise or lower rates. Combined with recent public comments by Fed officials, the minutes suggest that they are unlikely to cut interest rates at the meeting later this month.

Piper Sandler drops S&P 500 target projections. Piper Sandler's macro research team will no longer release projections of the year-end trend points of the S&P 500 index, calling it an inefficient way to communicate with clients. Chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz said that with the concentration of companies in the index, the top 10 stocks account for 37% of the index, predicting absolute performance in the index had become meaningless. He said, "I don't think there's any value in raising the target again because it no longer explains the stock market, which was its original purpose. Setting target prices for individual stocks makes sense, but it doesn't make sense for the index anymore." For most of 2023, Kantrowitz had a bearish view of the US stock market, but he changed his mind at the end of the year. In February, he raised his target for the S&P 500 index to 5,250 points again.

[Individual stock news]

Amazon (AMZN.US) announces "retirement" of enterprise security robot "Astro for Business" after only 7 months since launch. Amazon (AMZN.O) has decided to stop producing its "Astro for Business" security robot targeting small and medium-sized enterprises after only 7 months of launch. In an email sent to customers and staff on Wednesday, Amazon said that the reason for shelving Astro for Business was simple: Amazon hopes to focus on its household version of Astro. An Amazon spokesperson said in a statement, "Absolutely committed to our vision of bringing world-class consumer robotics solutions into the home. To accelerate our progress and ongoing research to make Astro the best home robot possible, we've decided to reduce our support for Astro for Business. We're excited about the home experiences we've invented for Astro and look forward to sharing more in the future."

Google's (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) carbon emissions have surged by nearly 50% in five years. Google's carbon emissions have risen nearly 50% in the past five years due to the involvement of a large number of artificial intelligence applications. According to its latest environmental report released on July 2, Google's carbon dioxide emissions for 2023 totaled 14.3 million tons, up 13% year-on-year and 48% compared to 2019. In the report, Google attributed the rise in this emission to "increased energy consumption in data centers and increased emissions in the supply chain." In fact, Google is not the only technology company whose carbon emissions have increased due to artificial intelligence demand. In May of this year, Microsoft admitted that its carbon emissions had risen 30% since 2020.

JPMorgan (JPM.US) Chief Market Strategist Kolanovic to leave after repeated stock judgments. JPMorgan's Chief Market Strategist and Joint Global Research Director Marko Kolanovic is set to leave. Prior to this, Kolanovic made a disastrous stock judgment for two consecutive years. For most of 2022, he was a firm believer that the stock market would rise, but the S&P 500 index fell 19% at the time and Wall Street strategists lowered their expectations for the stock market. He later turned bearish, just as the market bottomed out, and ultimately missed out on last year's 24% rise in the S&P 500 index and the 14% increase in the first half of this year. Kolanovic's JPMorgan strategy team, one of the few on Wall Street that continued to predict a possible downturn in the US stock market, has given the lowest S&P 500 index target for 2024 among banks tracked by Bloomberg, at 4,200 points. The index is currently above 5,500 points.

Bank review:

Bank of America: raised Tesla (TSLA.US) target price from $220 to $260.