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“AI+储能”双Buff持续催化! 特斯拉新一轮“主升浪”已开启?

Will the new round of Tesla's "main uptrend" be fueled by the continuous catalysis of the "AI+ energy storage" double buffs?

Zhitong Finance ·  Jul 3 22:27

Wedbush has raised its target price for Tesla to $300, considering it the most underestimated "AI investment target" on the market.

The global leader in electric vehicles and the leader in autonomous driving$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The stock price rose more than 5% on Wednesday on top of Tuesday's 10.2% rally.

Tesla's second-quarter deliveries exceed expectations, and people's enthusiasm for the August 8 Robotaxi event is increasing, driving up the price of electric vehicle stocks. More importantly, the two major "super Buffs" of AI and energy storage have recently continued to catalyze Tesla's stock price rebound. With FSD fully automatic driving system based on AI supercomputing system and Robotaxi autonomous driving taxi to be announced soon, Tesla is undoubtedly a leader in the AI field, and Tesla's energy storage business is expected to benefit from the global AI datacenter construction boom.

Dan Ives, a senior analyst at Wall Street's well-known investment firm Wedbush Securities, raised Tesla's 12-month target stock price from $275 to $300 this week, reiterating its "Outperform" rating and setting the most optimistic target price under bullish sentiment at $400.

Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst with the nickname "Tesla Bull", maintained his target stock price for Tesla at $310 this week and reiterated his "buy" rating on Tesla. As of the time of publication, Tesla's stock price hovered around $243.

The latest surprising delivery volume data is undoubtedly the main driving force behind the surge in Tesla's stock price. The company delivered 443,956 cars in the second quarter, down 4.7% from the same period last year, but 1.8% higher than the FactSet estimate of 436,000 cars. The range of expectations from Wall Street analysts is between 420,000 and 425,000 cars. Tesla produced about 411,000 cars in the quarter, which is also positive news. Exceeding sales means reducing inventory, which will ease the pressure on the company's price reduction.

Dan Ives, of Wedbush, emphasized, "With the successful implementation of most pricing plans and the stabilization of global demand for electric vehicles, especially in China, we believe Tesla should see significant momentum and easier competition in the next few quarters and eventually achieve its delivery target of 2 million vehicles in the near future, and its performance in 2025 will be easier to achieve."

Dan Ives said that the reason why Wedbush is optimistic about the electric vehicle leader Tesla is also because Wall Street institutions have realized that Tesla may be the most undervalued "AI investment symbol" in the US stock market. Ives and his team of analysts believe that in the most optimistic scenario, FSD, a single business based on AI supercomputing, created by Tesla, may be worth as much as $1 trillion, more than Tesla's current total market value of around $700 billion.

On the Seeking Alpha website, well-known stock analyst Bill Morell said that Tesla's second-quarter delivery data is undoubtedly very optimistic. After experiencing a wave of sell-offs, analysts may start to raise their target prices for Tesla. Previously, they were bearish on Tesla. After the recent upward trend in stock prices, Tesla's current stock price is above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Some optimistic stock analysts said that Tesla's shorts have begun to exit in succession, and the stock price has entered a new round of "major upward wave" mode.

Adam Jones, a Morgan Stanley analyst with the title of "Tesla major bull", is extremely optimistic about Tesla's target price expectation, based on the two "super buffs" of AI and energy storage.

Tesla's "AI Buff" has finally begun to exert its force.

As Musk said on Twitter, Tesla is not just an electric car manufacturer, it is also the leader in AI field.

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, recently praised Tesla's FSD based on AI supercomputing in an interview with the media. Tesla's FSD relies on these powerful hardware systems, such as the Dojo supercomputing chip and Nvidia's high-performance AI GPU (mainly H100, Musk said Blackwell architecture GPU will be purchased in the future), to support the massive training/inference computing power requirements of Tesla's FSD. Huang and other technology giants have publicly stated that Tesla's FSD is currently the most advanced auxiliary driving system, which can fully realize automatic driving in most cases, completely liberating human hands.

"Tesla is leading the world in self-driving cars." Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, said in an interview with the media. Huang Renxun added: "The revolutionary point of Tesla's 12th version of the fully automatic driving car is that it is an end-to-end generative model." "It learns how to perform end-to-end automation by watching videos-surrounding videos-and uses generative artificial intelligence technology to predict paths, and how to understand and drive cars. Therefore, this technology is indeed revolutionary, and the work done by Tesla is incredible."

Huang Renxun also predicted that one day "every car" will have some degree of self-driving ability, and this development will require a large amount of AI hardware computing power. "This technology is very similar to the technology of large language models, but it only requires a huge training infrastructure," he referred here to the Tesla FSD system. "This is because the video data, the data rate of the video, and the amount of video data are so high."

It is reported that Tesla's latest FSD 12 version is currently in the initial testing stage and provided a free trial period of 30 days to new car owners earlier this year. The current charging standard for Tesla FSD is $99 per month or a prepay of $8,000 to officially buy out FSD. Tesla reported in April that since its first appearance in March 2021, FSD's cumulative mileage has exceeded 1.3 billion miles.

However, FSD is still considered a Level 2 automated driving system by global automotive regulatory agencies, which means it needs to be used under human supervision, and has been subject to recall orders and government inquiries into its technical capabilities in the US market.

Musk announced that he will launch his long-promised self-driving robot taxi on August 8th. This new Tesla vehicle will be based on the upgraded latest FSD full-automatic driving technology, creating a self-driving electric taxi under the Tesla brand.

Cathie Wood, known as the "top fan of Tesla" and "ardent supporter of Musk," believes that Tesla's market value is expected to exceed $8 trillion. Ark Investment Management, founded and led by Wood, recently updated its target price for Tesla, and Ark expects Tesla's share price to reach $2,600 by 2029. The main reason for Ark's bullish outlook on Tesla is that it expects nearly 90% of Tesla's market value and profits by 2029 to be attributed to the Robotaxi business built on the ultra-powerful AI supercomputer.

Ark is highly confident in Tesla's ability to launch a robotaxi network in the next five years. The institution believes that in the future, every Tesla vehicle will become a cash-flow-producing machine driven by artificial intelligence, and expects Tesla's business model to shift from one-time car sales revenue to recurring sales revenue base.

"AI end is electrical utilities!" Tesla will benefit comprehensively from the surge in power consumption.

For Adam Jones, the Morgan Stanley analyst known as the "Tesla Bull," Tesla's solar and energy storage businesses may be the most attractive to investors in the future.

On June 25th, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that Tesla holds a "key AI card" and may become the most core target of the next round of AI investment frenzy. This "AI card" is not Tesla FSD or Robotaxi robot taxi business, but Tesla's solar and energy storage business.

In the latest delivery report, Tesla also released energy storage data. In the second quarter, Tesla deployed a total energy storage capacity of up to 9.4 gigawatt-hours, its best quarter ever. Jones, from Morgan Stanley, a Tesla Bull, firmly believes in Tesla's energy storage business and believes that the huge demand for data center power brought by the craze of global companies investing in AI will make Tesla a key participant in the US energy market.

Since the beginning of this year, the category with the strongest rise in the US utility sector has been concentrated in the subcategories of electric power and renewable energy, and the main reason behind it is that these two subcategories are considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of this unprecedented craze for companies to invest in AI globally, after all, the high energy-consuming AI data center expansion and new construction behind the scale of AI chips growing exponentially cannot be separated from a large-scale power supply base. This is also the origin of the market mainstream view of "AI end is electrical utilities."

According to Boston Consulting Group's forecast data, the share of data centers in US electricity consumption is expected to double, from 126 terawatt-hours in 2022 to 390 terawatt-hours in 2030. Terawatt-hours are used to describe the largest level of electricity consumption, typically for national energy statistics, large-scale energy project planning and evaluation. Large industrial facilities, such as super steel mills, may not consume more than 10 terawatts of electricity per year.

The unparalleled demand for renewable energy such as solar energy in global data centers is mainly because under the trend of global decarbonization, solar energy and other renewable energy sources may be the most important power generation source and even have no substitute. The Tesla energy storage equipment for long-term storage of large-scale solar energy will undoubtedly play a role similar to that of a "seller of shovels" in this market.

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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