Source: Jin10 Data

On Wednesday, Bitcoin once fell below the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum once fell below the $3,300 level. Bitcoin prices have been struggling in the past month, falling nearly 15% because of fears of a "real correction." In terms of product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income were 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively.

The cryptocurrency market is currently struggling to cope with multiple pressures, particularly the expectation that the now-defunct Mt. Gox exchange may begin to pay off users in Bitcoin. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $73,700 in March, but has been trading between around $59,000 and $72,000 since then.

Cryptocurrency trading company QCP Capital, based in Singapore, reinforced the market's attention to this issue. The company emphasizes that the backlog of up to 140,000 bitcoins is likely to continue to put pressure on the market, particularly since the exact repayment schedule is still unknown.

Meanwhile, according to data from SoSo Value, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $13.6 million on July 2nd after several days of net inflows, exacerbating negative market sentiment.

In addition, a warning by analysts at BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, about a 'unprecedented' situation occurring in a higher long-term interest rate environment, could hit Bitcoin prices and the crypto market.

Are we still bullish in the long run?

Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, gave a longer-term view of the current market dynamics in an interview. "Bitcoin may have been struggling since Mt. Gox began repayment in July, which is a huge pressure that has been going on for years, but if I knew that one of the biggest mysteries would disappear in July when I invested in cryptocurrency, there would be reason to expect a strong rebound in the second half of the year," he said.

In addition, a research report released by CCData on Tuesday shows that Bitcoin has not yet reached the top of its current appreciation cycle, and could hit a new high this year.

The Bitcoin 'cycle' refers to the cryptocurrency rising to a record high, then falling again, entering a bear market or 'crypto winter'. Since Bitcoin's launch, it has completed three cycles, all revolving around an event known as the halving, in which miners' rewards are reduced, reducing the supply of Bitcoin in the market.

Usually, a few months before Bitcoin reaches the historical high of that cycle, it usually halves. However, the current cycle is different. With the help of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin hit its latest record high before the halving event occurred.

However, many in the market still question whether Bitcoin has reached the top of its current cycle.

CCData's report studied Bitcoin's historical price trends, which indicate that Bitcoin may still hit a new high. The company said that historical trends show that there is always a period of price expansion after the halving of Bitcoin, "and this period of price expansion may last from 366 to 548 days before the top of the cycle is reached."

Bitcoin's last halving occurred on April 19th this year. CCData said, "In addition, we observed that trading activity on exchanges has declined in the past two months after the halving in previous cycles, which seems to reflect the current cycle. This suggests that the current expansion cycle may extend further into 2025."

Analysts acknowledge that institutional players in the industry have altered Bitcoin's previous trend in the current cycle, and added that third-quarter trading activity could be low, which in turn could mean more range-bound trading.

"However, the data and previous trends are strong enough to suggest that any consolidation will be temporary, and we may see another breakthrough of previous historical highs before the end of the year," CCData said in its report.

The report notes that forthcoming Ethereum ETFs in the US and similar products worldwide are 'destined to bring more capital, liquidity and demand to the asset class'.

CCData emphasized another key historical data point that supports its argument, stating that Bitcoin's price appreciation occurs in a short period of time. For example, in the 2012 cycle, 91.4% of Bitcoin's overall price increase from halving to record high occurred in the four months before the cycle peak. In the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Bitcoin's price increased by 78.8% and 71.5%, respectively, in the four months before they hit record highs.

"This parabolic expansion has yet to be realized in the current cycle," CCData said. Other commentators have emphasized how Bitcoin's historical pattern has evolved.

Thomas Perfumo, the global strategy head of the crypto exchange Kraken, said, "Historically, Bitcoin has reached its peak 12 to 18 months after halving, the last time was in April of this year. We also haven't seen volatility reach its previous peak. Finally, the previous market cycle peak coincided with a series of rapid historical highs, where 10 to 20 new highs were reached within 30 days, and we haven't triggered any of these signals yet."

Editor / jayden