Incidents:
On July 1, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced the June delivery data. In June 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 10,668 new cars, up 24% year on year and 5% month on month. From January to June 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 52,028 new vehicles, an increase of 26% over the previous year.
Model sales have recovered, and the X9 is gaining momentum. Overseas market expansion In May 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 10,668 new cars, an increase of 24% over the previous year, and an increase of 5% over the previous year. Among them, the Xiaopeng X9 “Nine Crown” delivered 1,687 units, and a total of 13,143 units were delivered in May of its launch, continuing to lead the pure electric MPV and pure electric three-seater models. 2024H1 Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 52,028 new vehicles, an increase of 26% over the previous year. Xiaopeng Motor's Q2 revenue is expected to exceed 9 billion yuan, which is expected to increase positively over the same period last year. At the same time, Xiaopeng Motor's overseas markets are expanding into markets such as Australia, France, and Egypt. The right-hand drive version of the G6 is expected to be delivered to overseas markets in the third quarter, and is expected to continue to contribute to sales and revenue growth.
MONA was unveiled on July 3. The collaboration between the B-end and C-end clearly showed that the M03, the first model of the Mona brand, was officially unveiled on July 3. The next model of the Xiaopeng brand is expected to be launched in Q4, and the new car cycle is intense. The Mona sub-brand represents “made of new AI” and is expected to become a global popularizer of AI smart driving cars. Among them, the first model of the Mona sub-brand is priced in the price range of 10-15 thousand, and the new car is positioned as a compact all-electric sedan. The Xiaopeng MONA M03 uses AI to quantify aesthetics to create a golden posture comparable to a sports coupe. The Xiaopeng MONA M03 also has the lowest wind resistance coefficient among mass-produced models of its class in the world. The wind resistance coefficient is only 0.194. B-side and C-side collaboration is expected to accelerate sales growth.
Intelligent driving continues to accelerate, and large models from end to end are gradually being launched
In June, the penetration rate of monthly active users of smart driving in XNGP urban areas reached 84%. As of May 31, 2024, XNGP has fully covered 283 cities across the country, and the Kaesong area continues to expand. At the same time, XNGP's official vehicle test mileage has accumulated over 6.46 million kilometers, and effective mileage data is expected to continue to accumulate. In July, XNGP will achieve “the whole country can be opened, the whole country is easy to open” through a major OTA, and more large-scale end-to-end model scenarios will be implemented. The 2024Q3 AI Tianji system will welcome a major OTA and will be officially launched overseas.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The new model is about to be launched, and it is expected to reach an inflection point in sales. The iterative catalyst for intelligent driving and the pace of model launches are expected to help the company reverse financial data. We expect the company's 2024/2025/2026 sales volume to be 22/61/750,000 vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 506/981/109.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65%/94%/11%, respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was -57/7/2.9 billion yuan, respectively. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: The advancement of intelligent functions falls short of expectations; the impact of intelligence on vehicle sales is less than expected.