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US Stock Market Outlook | Unexpected Slump! US 'Small Non-Farms' Reach Four-Month Low; Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes to be Released Tonight, US Stock Market will Close Early Due to the Holiday.

Futu News · 20:42

全球宏观

三大股指期货盘前走低，美股今日提前收市，明日休市一日

受美国独立纪念日假期影响，美股今日提前于北京时间4日01:00收市，明日休市一日。

今晚“小非农”、初请失业金人数与美联储会议纪要接力登场

超预期下滑！美国6月ADP新增就业为四个月最低水平。美国6月ADP就业人数增加15万人，预期增加16.3万人，前值增加15.2万人。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson指出，就业增长是稳定的，但不是广泛的。如果不是休闲和酒店业的招聘出现反弹，6月份将是一个令人沮丧的月份。

美国6月29日当周首次申请失业救济人数 23.8万人，预期 23.5万人，前值 23.3万人。

此外，美联储将于次日凌晨2:00公布会议纪要，值得关注。

特朗普Q2竞选募资额反超拜登，胜算进一步扩大

数据显示，美国前任总统、拜登的大选竞争对手特朗普在第二季度筹集了3.31亿美元的竞选资金。而拜登及民主党全国委员会在当季募集到的竞选资金额为2.64亿美元。特朗普的竞选团队表示，在二季度的大规模筹资之后，他们目前手头有近2.85亿美元现金，而拜登团队报告的现金额为2.4亿美元。这对于特朗普来说，是一个惊人的反超。

“美联储传声筒”：鲍威尔大谈通胀进展，让降息重回视野

有“美联储传声筒”之称的Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，隔夜美联储主席鲍威尔大谈通胀进展，让降息重回视野。鲍威尔表示，他对通胀率在年初反弹后重拾跌势的情况感到满意，但他说，现在就断言美联储是否会像投资者日益预期的那样在夏末降息还为时过早。鲍威尔的讲话凸显了一种谨慎的乐观情绪，而这种情绪在4月份令人失望的通胀数据公布后曾经消退。但他对降息仍持谨慎态度，这表明美联储在本月晚些时候的会议上降息的可能性仍然不大，且拒绝透露他是否在为9月份的降息做准备。

是市场保守了？策略师：美联储今年有望降息三次！

Lazard资产管理公司表示，经济疲软可能促使美联储今年降息幅度超过市场目前的预期。该公司首席市场策略师罗纳德·坦普尔（Ronald Temple）在下半年展望中表示，他的基本预测是美联储将在9月开始降息，并在今年晚些时候再降息两次。当前基准联邦基金借款利率为5.25%-5.50%。

花旗：标普500指数年终基准预测5600点，建议增持房地产、金融、非必需消费品板块

花旗认为，随着2024年下半年交易的开始，标普500指数还有更多上行空间。在花旗做出上述预测之前，今年上半年该基准指数已经大涨14.5%。花旗给出了标普500指数2024年(5600点)、2025年年中(5700点)和2025年年底(5800点)的几个目标水平预测。此外，花旗建议增持房地产、金融、非必需消费品板块。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一，特斯拉涨近2%，微软、苹果、英伟达小幅下挫

Q2交付量超预期提振市场情绪，特斯拉看涨水平升至三年来新高

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$的期权投资者目前是三年多来最乐观的，他们押注特斯拉股价在上涨至近六个月高点之后还有持续上涨的空间。数据显示，特斯拉的三个月看涨期权偏度(衡量看涨期权对看跌期权的溢价)是自2021年2月1日以来最大的。与三周前相比，市场情绪发生了逆转，而在此期间，特斯拉股价已经上涨了34%。

周三盘前，特斯拉盘前再涨近2%。

报道：英伟达H200订单Q3开始交付，预计B100明年上半年出货

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$AI GPU H200上游芯片端于Q2下旬起进入量产期，预计在Q3以后大量交货。但英伟达Blackwell平台上市时程提前至少一到两个季度，影响终端客户采购H200的意愿。供应链指出，目前待出货的客户端订单仍多集中于HGX架构的H100，H200比重有限，Q3将量产交货的H200主要为英伟达DGX H200；至于B100则已有部分能见度，预计出货时程落在明年上半年。

阿斯麦盘前涨1.5%，Hyper-NA EUV光刻机定价或翻倍

据Trendforce消息，Hyper-NA EUV光刻机售价预计达7.24亿美元，甚至会更高。而目前$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$每台EUV光刻机的价格仅为1.81亿美元，High-NA EUV光刻机的价格约为3.8亿美元。这也意味着Hyper-NA EUV光刻机的价格会是High-NA EUV光刻机的2倍之多。

又涨价了！近三年LV已至少涨价10次

有消息称，Louis Vuitton中国门店已于7月2日全线涨价，涨幅约3%~6%左右。查询LV中国官网发现，不少包袋产品的售价都有不同程度的上涨。此外，同属$LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$旗下的Dior也在6月底涨价，包括Lady Dior戴妃包、Booktote托特包、Saddle马鞍包等产品的价格均有不同程度调整，涨幅约3%~9%。对于涨价的原因，LVMH集团曾表示，LV提价主要针对皮革制品，以缩小全球不同市场的价格差距。因通货膨胀和货币波动，这种区域价格调整只会影响少数国家。

美政府拨款1.76亿美元，用于Moderna疫苗开发

自3月份以来，美国多个州的养牛场中爆发了禽流感H5N1病毒疫情，并有三名奶牛场工人感染。美东时间周二，$Moderna (MRNA.US)$公司透露，美国政府已向Moderna公司拨款1.76亿美元，以推进其禽流感疫苗的研发。

Meta发布3D Gen AI模型，可在1分钟内生成高质量3D内容

据IT之家，$Meta Platforms (META.US)$公司昨日发布研究论文，介绍了名为Meta 3D Gen（3DGen）的全新AI模型，可以在1分钟内基于用户输入的提示词，生成高质量的3D内容。Meta表示，Meta 3D Gen所生成的3D内容具备高分辨率纹理和材质贴图，还支持基于物理的渲染（PBR），并能对此前生成的3D内容重新再生成新纹理。

中信证券：看好美光科技未来业绩上行周期及未来投资价值

中信证券认为，今年储存芯片市场供给仍然紧张，储存产品价格预计短期保持上行趋势，$美光科技 (MU.US)$有望持续受益；需求方面，下游客户库存去化已基本完成，AI需求亦有望驱动需求加速提升。同时公司HBM3E于本季度开始出货，目前2024年及2025年所有产能已被预定，看好公司未来业绩上行周期及未来投资价值。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普涨，台积电、网易、京东、百度涨超1%

台积电盘前走高，大摩称苹果下一代AI芯片或使用台积电产品

昨日收涨1.96%的$台积电 (TSM.US)$，今日美股盘前续涨超1%。摩根士丹利发研报指，苹果公司或在其即将推出的M5系列芯片中使用台积电的堆叠SoIC-X先进封装技术，M5系列芯片将用于人工智能服务器。苹果可能会在明年下半年实现M5芯片的大批量生产，预计台积电明年将大幅扩大其SoIC产能。

理想汽车限时推出0首付购车方案，盘前涨近4%

$理想汽车 (LI.US)$微信公众号发文称，推出理想汽车9周年购车礼，定购理想L6/理想L7/理想L8/理想L9/理想MEGA即可享受限时购车权益1万元与0首付购车方案。

理想汽车盘前涨近4%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:45：美国6月SPGI服务业PMI终值。

22:00：美国5月耐用品订单月率修正值(%)、美国5月工厂订单月率(%)、美国6月ISM非制造业PMI。

22:30：美国截至6月28日当周EIA原油库存变动(万桶)

次日凌晨02:00：美联储公布货币政策会议纪要。

编辑/emily

Global macro

The three major equity index futures fell before the market, and the US stock market closed early today and will be closed tomorrow. On July 4th, the US stock market closed early at 01:00 Beijing time due to the US Independence Day holiday and will be closed tomorrow.

Due to the US Independence Day holiday, the US stock market closed early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4th and will be closed tomorrow.

Tonight, the 'little non-farm', initial jobless claims and the minutes of the Fed meeting will be released one after another.

Significantly lower than expected! The US ADP added 150,000 new jobs in June, with an expected increase of 163,000 and a previous value increase of 152,000. ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson, pointed out that employment growth is solid but not broad-based. If recruitment in the leisure and hospitality industry does not rebound, June will be a disappointing month.

In addition, the number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States for the week of June 29 was 238,000, with an expected 235,000 and a previous value of 233,000.

In addition, the Fed will release the minutes of the meeting the next day, which is worth paying attention to.

Trump's Q2 campaign fundraising exceeds Biden, and his chances of winning have expanded further.

Data shows that the former US president and Biden's election rival, Trump, raised $331 million in campaign funds in the second quarter. Biden and the National Democratic Committee raised $264 million in campaign funds during the season. Trump's campaign team said that after the large-scale fundraising in the second quarter, they currently have nearly $285 million in cash, while the reported current cash of the Biden team is $240 million. This is an amazing turnaround for Trump.

"Fed Loudspeaker": Powell talks extensively about inflation progress, letting interest rate cuts return to the agenda.

Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed megaphone,” wrote in his latest article that Fed Chairman Powell’s talk about inflation progress overnight brought back interest rate cuts into view. Powell said that he was satisfied with the situation where the inflation rate rebounded at the beginning of the year and then resumed its decline, but he said that it is too early to assert whether the Fed will cut interest rates in late summer as investors are increasingly expecting. Powell's speech highlights a cautious optimism that faded after disappointing inflation data in April. However, his cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts indicates that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates later this month is still small, and he refused to say whether he is preparing for an interest rate cut in September.

Has the market become conservative? Strategist: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year!

Lazard Asset Management said that economic weakness may lead the Fed to cut interest rates more than the market currently expects. Ronald Temple, the company's chief market strategist, said in the outlook for the second half of the year that his basic forecast is that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September and then cut interest rates twice more later this year. The current benchmark federal funds borrowing rate is 5.25%-5.50%.

Citi: The year-end benchmark for the S&P 500 index is expected to be 5,600 points, and it is recommended to increase holdings in the real estate, finance, and non-essential consumer product sectors.

Citi believes that with the beginning of trading in the second half of 2024, there is more room for the S&P 500 index to rise. Before Citi made the above predictions, the benchmark index had risen sharply by 14.5% in the first half of this year. Citi gave several target level forecasts for the S&P 500 index in 2024 (5600 points), mid-2025 (5700 points) and the end of 2025 (5800 points). In addition, Citi recommends increasing holdings in the real estate, finance, and non-essential consumer product sectors.

Hot news

Star technology stocks rose and fell before the market, and Tesla rose by nearly 2%, while Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia fell slightly.

Q2 delivery volume exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment. Tesla's bullish level rose to a new high in three years after rising to a high point in nearly six months. Data shows that Tesla's skewness of the three-month call option (measuring the premium of the call option to the put option) is the highest since February 1, 2021. Compared with three weeks ago, the market sentiment has reversed, and during this period, Tesla's stock price has risen by 34%.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Option investors are currently the most optimistic in more than three years, betting that Tesla's stock price has room for continued growth after rising to a high point in nearly six months. Data shows that Tesla's three-month call option skewness (measuring the premium of the call option to the put option) is the highest since February 1, 2021. Compared with three weeks ago, the market sentiment has reversed, and during this period, Tesla's stock price has risen by 34%.

Before the market on Wednesday, Tesla rose nearly 2%.

Report: Nvidia H200 orders will start shipping in Q3, and B100 is expected to be shipped in the first half of next year.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The AI GPU H200 upstream chip end entered mass production in the second quarter at the earliest, and it is expected to deliver a large number of goods after Q3. However, the listing schedule of Nvidia's Blackwell platform has been advanced by at least one or two quarters, affecting the willingness of end-customers to purchase H200. The supply chain pointed out that the current customer orders waiting to be shipped are still concentrated on the H100 of the HGX architecture, and the proportion of H200 is limited. The H200 that will be mass-produced and delivered in Q3 will mainly be Nvidia's DGX H200; as for the B100, some visibility has already been obtained, and it is expected to be shipped in the first half of next year.

ASML rose 1.5% before the market, and the pricing of Hyper-NA EUV lithography machines may double.

According to Trendforce, the price of Hyper-NA EUV lithography machine is expected to reach $724 million, or even higher. The current price of each EUV lithography machine is only $181 million, and the price of High-NA EUV lithography machine is about $380 million. This also means that the price of Hyper-NA EUV lithography machine will be more than twice that of High-NA EUV lithography machine. $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$It is reported that Louis Vuitton China stores have raised prices across the board on July 2, with an increase of about 3%~6%. Checking the official website of LV China, it is found that the prices of many bags have been raised to varying degrees. In addition, Dior, which belongs to LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton(LVMUY.US), also raised prices at the end of June, with different adjustments in the prices of products such as Lady Dior, Booktote, and Saddle, with an increase of about 3%~9%. For the reason of price increase, LV said it mainly targeted leather products to narrow the price gap in different markets around the world. Due to inflation and currency fluctuations, this regional price adjustment will only affect a few countries.

Price increase again! LV has increased its prices at least 10 times in the past three years.

The U.S. government has allocated $176 million to Moderna for the development of bird flu vaccine after an outbreak of H5N1 in cattle farms in several U.S. states since March, and three dairy farm workers were infected. The company said the funds were to help accelerate the development of its bird flu vaccine.$LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY.US)$Meta has announced its new AI model, 3D Gen, which can generate high-quality 3D content in one minute based on user input prompts with high-resolution textures and material maps. It supports physically-based rendering (PBR) and can regenerate new textures for previously generated 3D content.

Bullish China concept stocks rose across the board in pre-market trading, with Taiwan Semiconductor, Netease, JD.com, and Baidu up more than 1%.

Citigroup Securities is bullish on Micron's future performance growth cycle and future investment value. The company believes that the storage chip market will remain tight this year, with storage product prices expected to remain on an upward trend in the short term. Meanwhile, downstream customer inventory has been basically depleted, and AI demand is expected to drive demand to accelerate. At the same time, the company's HBM3E began shipping this quarter, and all capacity for 2024 and 2025 has been reserved, seeing the company's future performance growth cycle and future investment value.$Moderna (MRNA.US)$The weather is good today The weather is good today.

Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.

In 2023, the company's overall sales volume of 18,000 kiloliters, +28.10% year-on-year, significant growth. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$The U.S. government has allocated $176 million to Moderna for the development of bird flu vaccine after an outbreak of H5N1 in cattle farms in several U.S. states since March, and three dairy farm workers were infected. The company said the funds were to help accelerate the development of its bird flu vaccine.

Bullish China concept stocks rose across the board in pre-market trading, with Taiwan Semiconductor, Netease, JD.com, and Baidu up more than 1%.

According to Morgan Stanley's research report, Apple may use Taiwan Semiconductor's stacked SoIC-X advanced packaging technology in its upcoming M5 series chips, which will be used for AI servers. Apple may achieve large-scale production of M5 chips in the second half of next year, and Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to significantly expand its SoIC capacity next year.$Micron Technology (MU.US)$Ideal Auto has launched a zero down payment car purchase plan for a limited time, up nearly 4% in pre-market trading. The WeChat official account stated that those who order Ideal L6/L7/L8/L9/MEGA can enjoy the limited-time purchase rights of 10,000 yuan and zero down payment plan.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

The U.S. government has allocated $176 million to Moderna for the development of bird flu vaccine after an outbreak of H5N1 in cattle farms in several U.S. states since March, and three dairy farm workers were infected. The company said the funds were to help accelerate the development of its bird flu vaccine.

According to Trendforce, the price of Hyper-NA EUV lithography machine is expected to reach $724 million, or even higher. The current price of each EUV lithography machine is only $181 million, and the price of High-NA EUV lithography machine is about $380 million. This also means that the price of Hyper-NA EUV lithography machine will be more than twice that of High-NA EUV lithography machine.

According to Morgan Stanley's research report, Apple may use Taiwan Semiconductor's stacked SoIC-X advanced packaging technology in its upcoming M5 series chips, which will be used for AI servers. Apple may achieve large-scale production of M5 chips in the second half of next year, and Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to significantly expand its SoIC capacity next year.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Pre-market trading rose more than 1% today. Morgan Stanley issued a research report saying that Apple may use Taiwan Semiconductor's stacked SoIC-X advanced packaging technology in its upcoming M5 series chips, which will be used for AI servers. Apple may achieve mass production of M5 chips in the second half of next year, and it is expected that Taiwan Semiconductor will significantly expand its SoIC capacity next year.

According to Citigroup Securities research, storage chip market tight supply is expected to last this year, maintaining short-term rising trend in storage product price. Downstream customer inventory has already been reduced, and AI demand is expected to drive demand acceleration. Meanwhile, the company's HBM3E has begun shipping this quarter, and all of its manufacturing capacity for 2024 and 2025 has been reserved. Citigroup Securities is optimistic about Micron's future performance growth and investment value.

$Li Auto (LI.US)$Meta has announced its new AI model, 3D Gen, which can generate high-quality 3D content in one minute based on user input prompts with high-resolution textures and material maps. It supports physically-based rendering (PBR) and can regenerate new textures for previously generated 3D content.

Li Auto Inc rose nearly 4% before the market opened.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45: Final SPGI Services PMI for June in the USA.

22:00: Revised May Durable Goods Orders (%) and May Factory Orders (%) in the USA, and Non-Manufacturing ISM PMI for June in the USA.

22:30: Crude Oil Product Inventory Change (10,000 barrels) for the week ending June 28th in the USA.

02:00 the next day: The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its monetary policy meeting.

Editor/Emily

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