Stimulated by the soaring overseas stock market, relevant funds related to A shares have shown substantial premiums, and relevant institutions have successively warned of risks.
Multiple securities firms issued announcements warning about the risks of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation. The main content was that the relevant funds were highly premium, deviating greatly from the net value of the funds, and there were speculation risks. At the same time, in order to prevent trading risks and maintain market order, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will focus on monitoring the fund and strictly regulate investors who participate in frequent and large-scale transactions of the fund and have abnormal trading behavior.
It is worth noting that according to data from the Ministry of Finance, the scale of consumption tax revenue will reach 1.61 trillion yuan in 2023, accounting for 8.9% of the overall tax revenue, second only to VAT (38.3%) and corporate income tax (22.7%).
Overseas stock markets continue to surge and many related QDII funds have continually increased in net value and premium rates.
As of July 2nd, the Invesco Nasdaq 100 Technology ETF has risen by more than 56% with a premium rate of 17.59%; the Bosera S&P 500 ETF has risen by 22% with a premium rate of 6.95%; the Huaxia Nikkei ETF has risen by 10% with a premium rate of 5.42%; Huaxia S&P ETF, Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF, Huaxia Nasdaq ETF, and the China Southern S&P 500 ETF have all risen by more than 20% with a premium rate exceeding 5%.
Due to strong demand for related QDII products, the secondary market has seen a rare high premium rate.
What is a high premium rate? If the unit price of a fund A is 1.5 yuan and the net asset value per unit fund share is 1.2 yuan, then the premium rate of the fund is 25%. This means investors need to pay more than 25% of the actual value of the fund to buy each share of the fund on the secondary market.
Since 2024, in addition to the Invesco Nasdaq 100 Technology ETF, high premium QDII funds such as the Nikkei ETF and the MSCI USA 50 ETF have been closely monitored by the exchange.
In January of this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it would focus on monitoring high premium funds such as the MSCI USA 50 ETF. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange focuses on monitoring the Nikkei ETF and strictly regulates investors who engage in abnormal trading behavior or trade in large quantities.
Now the "high premium craze" has spread from the US and Japan to the European market. Yesterday, the Huaan France CAC40 ETF had a premium rate of 3.3%, and the fund subsequently issued a risk alert and stated that it will take temporary suspension measures based on the premium rate.
In addition, five cross-border funds have issued premium risk alerts in just two days since July.
As of the close of July 2nd, 64 out of 75 QDII ETFs had a premium rate, with an overall premium rate of 1.72%, and 27 products exceeded 2%, of which highest premium rate was as high as 17.59%.
Data shows that since the beginning of this year, the scale of several QDII funds has increased dramatically. Among them, the E Fund MSCI USA 50 ETF and the Southern China Securities Index ETF have increased by more than 10 times. The Huatai-Pinebridge CSI 300 Semiconductor ETF, Invesco Nasdaq 100 Technology ETF, and the Huaan France CAC40 ETF have all doubled their shares.
From the perspective of net inflows, as of July 2nd, the Invesco Nasdaq 100 Technology ETF has attracted more than 4.8 billion yuan in funds this year, and the Bosera S&P 500 ETF has attracted more than 3.5 billion yuan in funds.
For the US stock market, Huafu Securities stated that the outlook for the US stock market for the whole year is not pessimistic, but the short-term momentum of continued growth is probably limited: The high concentration of AI sectors and the relatively optimistic market for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts mean that short-term US stocks may continue to rise or be weak. Following a dumbbell strategy, while keeping some AI positions, it is advisable to appropriately allocate to cyclical and resource sectors: The business prospects of the communication services and utilities sectors have been significantly improved under the driving force of AI, and their valuations are much lower than those of information technology, making them a high-value allocation option; compared to the AI sector, the valuations of cyclical and resource sectors have higher cost-effectiveness and can be opportunistically allocated.
