In April of this year, Pfizer (PFE.US) stock fell to its lowest level since January 2013. As of the closing on July 1st, the stock has risen by about 11% since then. After falling to an 11-year low, Pfizer has been trading sideways. On the fundamental side, Pfizer is still trying to overcome the drag caused by the cooling of its Covid-19 products and is working hard to promote the development of non-Covid-19 drug business. Recently, the company announced that it has hopeful updates on the positive test results of two anti-cancer drugs, but at the same time, it also closed out a gene therapy project, and the stock continues to trade sideways. In a study, multiple myeloma patients who received Pfizer's Elrexfio drug therapy had an average survival time of 24.6 months. Another study tested the chemotherapy effects of Adcetris on lymphoma patients, and the Adcetris group had a median survival time of 13.8 months, while the chemotherapy group had a median survival time of 8.5 months. However, this news has hardly boosted the stock price of Pfizer. Pfizer has also halted a gene therapy study for children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The main and secondary objectives of this study have not met the criteria for success.
So, should you buy or sell Pfizer stock now?
From a fundamental perspective, Pfizer is still striving to overcome the drag caused by the cooling of its Covid-19 products and is working hard to promote the development of non-Covid-19 drug business. Recently, the company announced that it has hopeful updates on the positive test results of two anti-cancer drugs, but at the same time, it also closed out a gene therapy project, and the stock continues to trade sideways.
In a study, multiple myeloma patients who received Pfizer's Elrexfio drug therapy had an average survival time of 24.6 months. Another study tested the chemotherapy effects of Adcetris on lymphoma patients, and the Adcetris group had a median survival time of 13.8 months, while the chemotherapy group had a median survival time of 8.5 months. However, this news has hardly boosted the stock price of Pfizer. Pfizer has also halted a gene therapy study for children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The main and secondary objectives of this study have not met the criteria for success.
Although the first quarter showed strong demand for Pfizer's non-Covid-19 products, it failed to achieve the significant boost that Covid-19 drugs brought, and performance growth did not reach the level of leading stocks. At the same time, the technicals show that the stock price of the company has not formed a significant trend line after a slight rebound. Therefore, some analysts have pointed out that Pfizer's stock is currently not recommended for buying or selling, and investors should wait for larger factors to drive the market before taking any action.
Fundamentally, the first-quarter financial statement showed strong demand for non-Covid-19 drugs.
Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said Pfizer's first-quarter financial report showed "huge" upside potential. FactSet data showed adjusted earnings per share fell 33% to 82 cents, but far exceeded expectations of 51 cents per share. Sales fell 20% to $14.88 billion, but exceeded expectations of $13.87 billion.
Sales of Pfizer and BioNTech's (BNTX.US) Covid-19 vaccine Comirnaty plummeted 88% to $354 million, below the expected $446.5 million. Total sales growth excluding Paxlovid and Comirnaty was 11%. FACTSET analysts surveyed predicted that Comirnaty sales would reach annual lows every Q2.
For the second quarter, Pfizer stock analysts expect earnings per share to drop by 33% to 45 cents per share, but expect sales to grow slightly by 2.6% to $13.07 billion. This may be the first sales growth since Q4 2022.
Major institutional investors (who account for 70% of all market transactions) tend to look for stocks with accelerating growth in earnings and sales. Investors' targets are stocks with sales and profit growth of 20%-25% in the near term; Pfizer has not met these standards.
Despite this, the first quarter report shows strong demand prospects for Pfizer's non-Covid-19 products. First, Vyndaqel's strong demand has also been shown to be a highlight of the quarter. This drug is used to treat genetic thyroid hormone-mediated amyloidosis-induced cardiomyopathy, where abnormal proteins accumulate in cardiac tissue, leading to the disease. The drug's sales soared 66% to $1.14 billion, exceeding expectations of $895.2 million.
Pfizer also stated that Eliquis, a blood thinner co-promoted with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US), helped drive overall revenue growth. The drug had sales of about $2.04 billion in the first quarter, up 9% from the same period last year. FactSet forecasts show that analysts previously expected Eliquis sales to reach $1.95 billion.
Pfizer's group of vaccines to prevent pneumococcal pneumonia reached sales of $1.69 billion in the first quarter, up 6% from the same period last year. This growth is largely driven by the acceptance of American children and government procurement, among other factors. FactSet forecasts show that analysts previously expected sales of these products to reach $1.63 billion this quarter.
At the same time, Pfizer's new vaccine for RSV achieved sales of $145 million, mainly driven by the use of the elderly. This vaccine, called Abrysvo, entered the market in Q3 of last year and is aimed at the elderly and pregnant women to protect fetuses. FACTSET forecasts show that sales of the vaccine in the first quarter were far below analysts' expectations of $360 million.
During this period, Pfizer's drug Ibrance, used to treat certain breast cancers, generated sales of $1.05 billion, a decrease of approximately 8% compared to the same period last year. The decline occurred due to competition and price reductions in certain international markets. The drug's sales revenue roughly meets analysts' expectations. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income is respectively 401/1288/60 million yuan.
In 2024, Pfizer expects adjusted earnings per share to be $2.15-$2.35 and revenue to be $58.5-$61.5 billion. At the median, profits will increase by more than 22% and revenue will increase by nearly 3%.
Latest news about Pfizer drugs
Pfizer recently announced positive test results for two cancer drugs, but also terminated a gene therapy project.
Pfizer tested Elrexfio on patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. This means that cancer has recurred after treatment or is not sensitive to other treatments. Overall, the median survival time of patients was 24.6 months, and the median time to disease progression for subjects was 17.2 months. Roger Dansey, Chief Development Officer of Pfizer's Oncology division, said in a statement that recent research on the multiple myeloma treatment drug Elrexfio has shown "convincing overall survival data".
Secondly, another study tested the efficacy of the drug Adcetris acquired from Seagen on a lymphoma patient undergoing chemotherapy. The median survival time of the Adcetris group was 13.8 months, while that of the chemotherapy group was 8.5 months.
However, these two pieces of news barely boosted Pfizer's stock price, as the company encountered setbacks in gene therapy research. Pfizer also discontinued a gene therapy study for children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, closing the gene therapy project. The primary and secondary objectives of the study failed to meet success criteria. After failing to improve the motor function of boys aged 4-7 with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, who are more likely to suffer from Duchenne syndrome, the company canceled the study. Pfizer's exit means that Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT.US) newly approved gene therapy eleidys has one fewer competitor.
In other respects, Pfizer is also advancing the approval of new drugs. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the drug Tivdak jointly developed with Seagen (SGEN.US) for the treatment of recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer patients. US regulators have also approved Pfizer's gene therapy Beqvez for the treatment of hemophilia B. A one-time treatment will cost $3.5 million. European regulators have also approved Pfizer's development of Emblaveo, a drug that treats certain bacterial infections that are resistant to other drugs.
Should Pfizer stocks be sold now?
Although Pfizer's first-quarter performance showed upward momentum, according to BD Digital's model data, Pfizer's stock has a comprehensive score of 35 points, far lower than the level of leading stocks (often at or above 95). Secondly, Pfizer's relative strength score is also low, indicating that Pfizer's stock performance last year was the worst among all stocks at 27%. In addition, the company's earnings score is also at a medium-low level.
Currently, Pfizer's stock price is slightly below the 200-day moving average. MarketSurge shows that on June 17 and 18, the stock price fell below the 50-day moving average. On July 2, the trading price of the stock was consistent with this point. It is worth noting that the stock did not form a chart pattern for investors to observe. On April 18, the stock price fell to its lowest point since January 2013.
In summary, the stock is not suitable for buying now. Although there has been a recent rebound and a breakthrough of the 50-day moving average, the stock market has not formed a clear chart pattern for entry. However, Pfizer's stock is not currently suitable for selling either, as its stock price once fell below the 50-day moving average, but is now on par with it, and Pfizer's stock still needs to prove its fundamentals and technical advantages.
As Pfizer strengthens its product line and seeks new approvals to try to eliminate the astronomical growth during the peak of the epidemic, observing the performance of the company's shares will be very important. Although the company also has a COVID-19 vaccine like competitors Moderna (MRNA.US) and Novavax (NVAX.US), analysts expect that the company's sales will never reach the growth level during the epidemic. On the contrary, Wall Street is closely watching the adult RSV vaccine, which is launched at the same time as GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK.US) competing product. Pfizer's efforts after acquiring Seagen may also be key to future growth.