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研报掘金|中信证券:看好美光未来业绩上行周期及未来投资价值

Bullish on Micron's future performance and future investment value - Research report by Citic Securities.

Gelonghui Finance ·  15:00
On July 3, Guolonghui reported that Citic Securities released a report stating that Micron’s quarterly performance was slightly better than expected, but its guidance for the next quarter was below market expectations. Considering that the company's performance in the third quarter exceeded expectations slightly, storage pricing is expected to maintain an upward trend, downstream customer inventory has approached normal levels, and HBM products have been successfully shipped, the company's estimated revenue forecast for fiscal years 2024 to 2026 are adjusted to $25 billion, $39.7 billion and $44.3 billion respectively, with the original forecast values being $24.8 billion, $35.1 billion, and $41.6 billion. Adjust the company's non-GAAP net income forecast for fiscal years 2024 to 2026 to $1.18 billion, $12.62 billion and $14.35 billion respectively, with the original forecast values being $1.05 billion, $9.155 billion, and $13.4 billion. The report points out that Micron expects fourth quarter revenue to be between $7.4 billion and $7.8 billion, with an average market expectation of $7.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share guidance to $0.53 to $0.69, lower than the market expectation of $0.89; Non-GAAP gross margin guidance is 33.5% to 35.5%, in line with the market expectation of 34.6%. The bank believes that the storage chip market is still tight in supply this year, storage product prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term, and the company is expected to continue to benefit; in terms of demand, downstream customer inventory digestion has basically been completed, and AI demand is expected to drive demand acceleration. At the same time, the company's HBM3E began shipping this quarter, and all production capacity for 2024 and 2025 have been reserved, and is bullish on the company's future performance growth cycle and future investment value.

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