With the expansion of takeaway and the popularity of pre-cooked food, some of the seasoning consumption on the household side has been transferred to restaurant and food industry channels, such as pre-cooked food, cooking bags, etc., which has brought new growth to the industry. The demand for pre-cooked food taste restoration is increasing, and the requirements for seasoning companies are gradually strengthening. The industrialization trend has become a new opportunity.
According to the Zhicheng financial APP, Guotou Securities issued a research report stating that the current catering channel is under pressure to suppress the use of condiments, while the flow of customers in supermarkets is irreversibly declining, and the growth rate of unit prices is narrowing, leading to overall pressure on the sector. Condiment companies are accelerating the process of channel development, expanding into new channels such as catering and food industry from their respective advantages, such as traditional supermarkets and circulation, and with the promotion of channels, the speed of dealer development has significantly increased. Online and industrial layout are expected to become new growth points for the condiment industry. Listed companies are also accelerating their development in online and food industry channels. The current recovery slope of the condiment industry is slowing down, but it is not unilaterally downward. The team believes that there are still structural opportunities in the industry.
Demand growth slows down and the sector is in the bottom range.
Reviewing the performance of the catering industry and the seasoning sector since the outbreak, it is found that both are positively correlated, and as the industry demand slows down, it enters a medium and low-speed development stage, and the quality of development becomes a key factor. Looking at it separately, price increase is the trend in retail channels, while volume growth in catering channels is slowing down. At present, catering channels are under pressure to suppress the use of condiments, while the flow of customers in supermarkets is irreversibly declining, and the growth rate of unit prices is narrowing, leading to overall pressure on the sector.
Decoding channels: Go along with the trend and emerge anew.
Terminal demand differentiation. Guotou Securities attempts to analyze the growth opportunities of the main channels in the weak beta of the seasoning industry:
Catering channel: The pace of recovery has slowed down, and customized growth needs to be sought after.
Catering channel sales are large and hard to attack, and are the most core channels for seasoning companies. The impact of the epidemic on consumer scenarios has continued to harm the catering industry's revenue. Under high pressure, standardization and chain development continue to be promoted, and the demand for customized production by companies is increasing.
Retail channels: The trend of declining customer flow in supermarkets continues, and the online channel becomes a new battlefield.
Offline: The flow of customers in supermarkets is declining, and the circulation channel is being expanded. With the rapid development of e-commerce platforms and local life platforms, the flow of customers in supermarkets has significantly decreased, but it is still the main base for seasoning purchases and promotions. At the same time, companies are also accelerating their expansion in circulation and other channels to seek new sales.
Online: The proportion of online channels has slightly increased, and companies are focusing on stabilizing prices and sources of goods. Under the trend of fragmentation in the industry, the online channel has slightly increased. The segregation of online and offline products, the reduction of trespassing, and the stabilization of prices are the main issues to be addressed. Due to the low frequency of seasoning purchases and weak hoarding demand, with low value and high transportation costs, online is not the main channel, and improving brand influence is the main way forward.
Food industry: Industrialization is accelerating, and attention is paid to new channel growth.
With the expansion of takeaway and the popularity of pre-cooked food, some of the seasoning consumption on the household side has been transferred to restaurant and food industry channels, such as pre-cooked food, cooking bags, etc., which has brought new growth to the industry. The demand for pre-cooked food taste restoration is increasing, and the requirements for seasoning companies are gradually strengthening. The industrialization trend has become a new opportunity. Continuing to pay attention is recommended.
Companies actively seek new paths against the trend.
Condiment enterprises accelerate the process of tapping new channels, expanding into new channels such as catering and food industry from their respective advantages, such as traditional circulation and supermarket channels, and with the promotion of channels, the speed of dealer development has significantly increased. By region, except for Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, which has basically achieved nationwide layout, the number of dealers of other individual stocks in provinces outside their main sales areas has rapidly increased. Online and industrial layout are expected to become new growth points for the seasoning industry. Listed companies are also accelerating their development in online and food industry channels. Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food is exploring the growth of catering, focusing on customization; Jinjia Hi-Tech is strengthening its catering layout under the leadership of the new management team and is continuing its national expansion; Qianhe Condiment & Food is focusing on developing circulation increment, and its online advantages continue; Tianwei Food Group is vigorously developing customized catering and acquiring Food Suey to lay out small-and-medium-sized B businesses.
Risk warning
Issues such as food safety, intensified industry competition, slower-than-expected demand recovery, and unexpected material costs rising.