From a short-term perspective, the improvement of the US economy promotes the marginal improvement of the large storage market. Tariff policies may bring a spurt of installations. From a medium-term perspective, the transformation of energy in the US market, extreme weather, AI development and other factors will drive the demand for energy storage upward. The safety of energy storage batteries will also receive more attention. Although Chinese companies face challenges, there are still good development opportunities. product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Zhongjin Corporation released a research report that the cost reduction of domestic large storage and the rationalization of the revenue model have accelerated the inflection point of the economic performance, and energy storage is expected to reflect the reasonable time-space value and obtain reasonable returns. In the short term, the team believes that the driving force for China's new energy installation still comes from the new energy mandatory matching storage policy, and the matching storage ratio and duration requirements continue to increase. In the medium and long term, with the promotion of China's power market reform, energy storage is expected to achieve sustained and healthy development under the drive of economic efficiency. In addition, the overall trend of overseas demand such as the US and Europe is upward. Chinese companies have both opportunities and challenges.
In 2024, the global regional market will have multi-dimensional and marginal benefits. In terms of total demand, Zhongjin Corporation is optimistic that the global demand for energy storage is expected to maintain high growth in 2024. It is estimated that the global energy storage shipments (excluding communication energy storage) will reach 273GWh in 2024, of which China/ the United States/ Europe/ Australia/ Japan/ other regions are 86/78/50/6/3/49GWh, respectively.
Domestic large-capacity storage: The cost reduction and revenue model rationalization have accelerated the inflection point of economic efficiency. Lithium carbonate and energy storage system prices have stabilized, and the implementation of grid-connected projects has catalyzed terminal demand. Continuous advancement of the power spot market construction, Zhongjin Corporation believes that energy storage is expected to reflect its reasonable time-space value and obtain reasonable returns. In the short term, Zhongjin Corporation believes that the driving force for China's new energy installation still comes from the new energy mandatory matching storage policy, and the matching storage ratio and duration requirements continue to increase. In the medium and long term, with the promotion of China's power market reform, energy storage is expected to achieve sustained and healthy development under the drive of economic efficiency.
Overseas: The overall trend of demand is upward, and Chinese companies have both opportunities and challenges. 1) The US market: From a short-term perspective, the improvement of economic efficiency promotes the marginal improvement of the large storage market. Tariff policies may bring a spurt of installations. From a medium-term perspective, the transformation of energy in the US market, extreme weather, AI development and other factors will drive the demand for energy storage upward. The safety of energy storage batteries will also receive more attention. Although Chinese companies face challenges, there are still good development opportunities. 2) European market: The household storage is approaching its end, and terminal demand is still strong. The EU plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy, and many countries have raised their goals to accelerate construction, bringing opportunities for large-scale storage. 3) Middle East and North Africa market: good geographical location and rich renewable energy may undertake the outflow of new energy demand. 4) Other regions: Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia and other markets are all marginally improving.
Energy storage technology continues to iterate, and new products are gradually being applied. 1) Large cells bring higher integration efficiency. The industry is transitioning from 280Ah to 314Ah cells and gradually developing toward 500Ah+ cells, and the trend is clear. 2) Grid-connected PCSs effectively support the power grid. Zhongjin Corporation predicts that with the continuous increase of new energy installations and the cost reduction of grid-connected PCSs (currently 0.3 yuan/W+, far higher than grid-independent PCSs), its application projects are expected to gradually penetrate.
Risk
Policy promotion is not up to expectations, global energy storage demand is not up to expectations, competition in the industry chain is intensifying, profit margins are declining, and trade frictions have an impact.