Focus on CHK and US stocks

The improvement of Hong Kong stock market liquidity has shown initial results, and the new stock market is also becoming more active. What other new measures will follow?

2023年港交所推进一系列改革，涉及上市规则、交易机制、数字化基础设施等，旨在改善港股市场流动性，进一步提升吸引力和竞争力。统计数据显示，从今年开始，特别是二季度以来，港股整体流动性得到明显改善；从3月份开始，港股主板市场各月日均成交额就稳定在千亿港元以上。

在流动性改善的同时，龙头公司带头大力回购，港股市场主要指数也初步走出谷底，企稳回升。另外，投资者情绪提升之际，港股市场二季度IPO数量达到18家，集资额合计84亿港元，环比分别上升50%和75%。

港股流动性改善初见成效

在自身吸引力增强，以及各方共同努力下，港股流动性改善初见成效。

以港股主板市场为例，据Wind数据统计，今年二季度，港股主板市场连续3个月单月成交额超过2万亿港元，二季度单月平均成交额达2.43万亿港元。

相较之下，今年一季度，港股主板市场单月平均成交额为2.02万亿港元，其中2月份成交额低于2万亿港元，仅为1.71万亿港元；去年四季度，港股主板市场单月平均成交额为1.85万亿港元，其中去年10月成交额仅为1.57万亿港元，为2020年初以来的最低单月成交额水平。

从日均成交额来看，今年3月份开始，港股主板市场各月日均成交额就稳定在千亿港元以上，而在2023年9月至2024年2月期间，港股主板市场各月日均成交额连续6个月低于1000亿港元。

按成交行业划分，资讯科技业贡献了港股市场成交最大份额，以今年5月份的情形为例，资讯科技业股票当月合计成交超过7000亿港元，占到当月港股市场成交额的约三成。其次为金融业，占到当月港股市场成交额的约两成。上述两大行业合计贡献了港股市场当月半数成交额。

龙头公司带头大力回购

在流动性改善的同时，港股市场主要指数也走出谷底，企稳回升。

数据显示，今年二季度，港股市场恒生指数上涨7.12%，终结此前连续4个季度下跌的局面。此前从2023年二季度开始，恒生指数分别下跌7.27%、5.85%、4.28%、2.97%。

在二季度港股市场回暖的过程中，大市值公司成为中坚力量。

据记者统计，在当前港股市值前20的公司中，今年二季度有多达19家公司股价上涨，其中16家公司涨幅超过10%，占比达八成，这些公司基本面总体保持稳健。

值得注意的是，在此前港股市场连续下跌的过程中，个股基本“泥沙俱下”，不少优质公司或龙头公司股价逐渐跌入价值区间，长期投资价值凸显。一些公司由此开始加大力度回购股份，用真金白银体现对公司长期发展前景的认可，相关举动也提振了投资者对港股市场整体投资信心。

据Wind数据，今年以来，港股龙头公司回购力度明显加大，已有腾讯控股、汇丰控股、美团、友邦保险等4家公司回购金额均超过百亿港元，单是这4家公司合计回购金额就已在千亿港元左右，其中腾讯控股今年以来回购金额已经超过500亿港元。

德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴在接受记者采访时表示，2024年上半年香港市场的流动性和估值有所改善，预计美联储降息会使更多来自美国、欧洲和中东的资金重新回流香港，进一步提升香港市场的流动性和估值，促进更多新股上市。

IPO市场被“激活”

受益于流动性等各项市场指标逐渐改善，投资者情绪有所提升，港股二季度IPO数量达到18家，集资额合计84亿港元，环比分别上升50%和75%。

作为市场活跃的一个重要指标，上半年新股认购活跃程度较去年同期有大幅提升，若剔除认购不足的股份，2024年上半年港股主板上市新股平均超额认购倍数近150倍，去年同期则平均不到10倍。

具体而言，去年上半年新股公开发售超额认购倍数最高仅33倍，而今年上半年公开发售有效认购倍数超过100倍的就达14家，其中最高认购倍数为优博控股，达到惊人的2503倍，超越惠生国际排在香港史上第五位。而公开发售的火爆情形也一定程度上反映了香港投资气氛渐浓。

从2024年上半年新股首日表现来看，30家上市公司上市首日仅9家破发，破发率30%，较去年上半年有了大幅改善。

从打新收益来看，上半年经纬天地打新收益最佳，中签投资人首日每手账面浮盈6560港元（剔除手续费），其次为鸿基集团，每手账面浮盈3400港元。

港交所数据显示，截至6月28日，港交所正在处理的IPO申请有89家，已获上市委员会批准待上市的IPO有16家。

6月最后两个交易日，即6月27日、6月28日，分别有7家、8家拟上市公司披露了港股IPO上市招股书，包括亚洲最大综合物流服务提供商顺丰控股、全国性珠宝集团周六福、综合家庭护理品牌集团圣贝拉等。

正在排队的港股IPO主要来自人工智能、生物医药、新能源汽车、新消费等多个赛道。欧振兴在接受记者采访时表示，当香港市场的流动性得到改善后，这些赛道公司赴港上市的条件将会更有利，为香港新股市场带来更正面的影响。

但欧振兴同时提到，虽然新股市场在第二季度有明显改善，但来自美国、欧洲和中东的资金仍然投放于其他地区，因此并未能够促使大型或超大型新股在港上市。而内地经济持续恢复将是关键，市场期待已久的美国降息将会是决定香港新股市场反弹程度，以及是否会有更多大型新股于年内完成上市的最重要因素。

值得注意的是，在提升港股市场活跃度和吸引力方面，港交所仍有新的举措。6月28日，港交所刊发咨询文件，建议下调香港证券市场最低上落价位，包括证券市场股票、房地产投资信托基金（REIT）及股本权证等衍生品的最低上落价位，咨询为期12周，9月20日结束。

编辑/Jeffrey

In 2023, Hong Kong Exchange will promote a series of reforms involving listing rules, trading mechanisms, digital infrastructure, etc., aimed at improving the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market and further enhancing its attractiveness and competitiveness. Statistical data show that this year, especially since the second quarter, the overall liquidity of Hong Kong stocks has improved significantly; since March, the daily average turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market has stabilized at over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars per month.

With the improvement of liquidity, leading companies have taken the lead in buying back shares, and the main indices of the Hong Kong stock market have also begun to stabilize and recover. In addition, as investor sentiment improved, the number of IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market in the second quarter reached 18, with a total amount raised of HKD 8.4 billion, up 50% and 75% QoQ respectively.

Improvements in liquidity are beginning to show effect in Hong Kong's stock market.

Thanks to its enhanced appeal and joint efforts, Hong Kong's liquidity improvements are beginning to show effect.

Taking the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market as an example, according to Wind data, in the second quarter of this year, the monthly turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market exceeded HKD 2 trillion for three consecutive months, with an average monthly turnover of HKD 2.43 trillion.

In contrast, in the first quarter of this year, the average monthly turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market was HKD 2.02 trillion, with February's turnover dropping below HKD 2 trillion to only HKD 1.71 trillion; in the fourth quarter of last year, the average monthly turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market was HKD 1.85 trillion, with October's turnover only HKD 1.57 trillion, the lowest monthly turnover level since the beginning of 2020.

In terms of daily average turnover, since March 2021, the daily average turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market has stabilized above HKD 100 billion per month, whereas during the period from September 2023 to February 2024, the daily average turnover of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board market was consistently below HKD 100 billion for six consecutive months.

Divided by industry of transaction, the information technology industry accounted for the largest share of transactions in the Hong Kong stock market. For example, in May 2021, the total transaction volume of information technology industry stocks exceeded HKD 700 billion, accounting for about 30% of that month's transaction volume. Finance came in second, accounting for about 20% of that month's transaction volume. The two industries combined accounted for half of that month's transaction volume in the Hong Kong stock market.

Leading companies have taken the lead in buying back shares.

With the improvement of liquidity, the major indices of the Hong Kong stock market have turned the corner and started to rebound.

Data indicates that in the second quarter of this year, the Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong stock market rose by 7.12%, ending a continuous decline in the previous four quarters. Previously, starting from the second quarter of 2023, the Hang Seng Index had fallen by 7.27%, 5.85%, 4.28%, and 2.97% respectively.

During the second quarter of the Hong Kong stock market's rebound, large-cap companies became the backbone.

According to journalists' calculations, among the top 20 companies by market cap on the Hong Kong stock market, up to 19 companies saw their share prices rise in the second quarter of this year, with 16 having rises exceeding 10%, accounting for 80%. These companies' fundamentals remain generally sound.

It is worth noting that during the continuous decline of the Hong Kong stock market, many quality companies or leading companies' stock prices gradually fell into the value range, highlighting the long-term investment value. Some companies have thus begun to increase their efforts to buy back shares, demonstrating their recognition of the company's long-term development prospects with real money, and these actions have boosted investors' overall confidence in the Hong Kong stock market.

According to Wind data, leading Hong Kong stocks' share buybacks have significantly increased since the beginning of the year, with Tencent Holdings, HSBC Holdings, Meituan, and AIA all having repurchased more than HKD 10 billion. These four companies alone totaling repurchased shares worth around HKD 100 billion, with Tencent Holdings already having repurchased shares worth over HKD 50 billion this year.

Euro Zhang, Managing Partner, Southern Region China, Deloitte, stated in an interview with journalists that liquidity and valuations of the Hong Kong market are expected to improve in the first half of 2024, and the Fed's rate cuts would bring more money from the US, Europe, and the Middle East flowing back to Hong Kong, further boosting liquidity and valuations, promoting more IPOs to go public.

The IPO market has been "activated".

Benefiting from gradual improvements in liquidity and other market indicators, with investors' sentiment improving, the number of IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market reached 18 in the second quarter, with a total amount raised of HKD 8.4 billion, up 50% and 75% respectively QoQ.

As an important indicator of market activity, new stock subscriptions in the first half of the year rose significantly from the same period of last year. Excluding undersubscribed shares, the average oversubscription rate of new stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange main board in the first half of 2024 was nearly 150 times, compared with less than 10 times on average in the same period last year.

Specifically, in the first half of last year, the highest oversubscription rate for new stocks publicly offered was only 33 times. In the first half of this year, 14 companies had oversubscription rates exceeding 100 times, including the highest rate for Yu Bo Group Holdings Limited, at a staggering 2,503 times, surpassing Huisheng International to rank fifth in Hong Kong's history. The hot situation of public offerings also reflects to some extent the increasing investment sentiment in Hong Kong.

From the performance of the first day of listing of new shares in the first half of 2024, only 9 of the 30 listed companies broke on the first day of listing, with a break rate of 30%, a significant improvement from the first half of last year.

In terms of new share earnings, Jingwei Tian Di had the best earnings from new shares in the first half of the year, with a first-day floating profit of HK$6,560 per hand for investors who won the bid (excluding commission), followed by Hong Kong Consortium, with a first-day floating profit of HK$3,400 per hand.

According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, as of June 28, there were 89 IPO applications being processed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing committee, with 16 IPOs approved and waiting for listing.

In the last two trading days of June, 7 and 8 companies respectively intended to be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange disclosed IPO prospectuses, including SF Holding, Asia's largest comprehensive logistics service provider, Zhou Lufu, a national jewelry group, and Santabel, a comprehensive home care brand group.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO queue is mainly composed of companies from multiple tracks, such as artificial intelligence, biomedical, new energy vehicles, and new consumption. Ou Zhenxing, in an interview with reporters, said that when liquidity in the Hong Kong market improves, the conditions for these track companies to go public in Hong Kong will be more favorable, bringing a more positive impact to Hong Kong's new share market.

However, Ou Zhenxing also mentioned that although the new share market improved significantly in the second quarter, funds from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East still flowed to other regions, so large or super-large new shares were not able to be listed in Hong Kong. The continuous recovery of the Mainland economy will be the key, and the long-awaited interest rate cut in the United States will be the most important factor in determining the degree of rebound in Hong Kong's new share market and whether more large new shares will be listed by the end of the year.

It is worth noting that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange still has new measures to improve its market activity and attractiveness. On June 28th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange issued a consultation paper proposing to lower the minimum price limit for Hong Kong's securities market, including the minimum price limit for derivatives such as stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and equity warrants. The consultation period will last for 12 weeks and end on September 20th.

Edited by Jeffrey

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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