Event: The company released the 2024H1 performance forecast: estimated revenue of 131.6-14.41 billion yuan, +5% -+15% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 1.46 to 1.6 billion yuan, +5% -+15% year-on-year.
The home appliance business improved, and profitability improved month-on-month. Referring to the performance center, 2024Q2, the company achieved revenue of 67.2-7.97 billion yuan, -2%-+16% year-on-year, +4% -24% month-on-month, net profit of 81-950 million yuan, +2% -+20% year-on-year, and +25% -+47% month-on-month. Home appliances have entered the peak season of the industry. According to Aowei Cloud Network, 2024Q2 domestic household air conditioning companies are scheduled to produce 11,000 units in a single quarter, +127%; new energy vehicles continue to increase rapidly. According to the Passenger Federation's forecast, the 2024Q2 industry is expected to sell 2.34 million new energy vehicles, or +32% month-on-month. According to Marklines, Tesla sold a total of 282,000 units worldwide in April-May.
The company benefited from an increase in sales of high-margin products, reduced internal costs and increased efficiency, and launched a lightweight package in the second quarter. Referring to the performance center, the net interest rate of 2024Q2 to mother was about 12%, +2pct month-on-month, and +0.4pct year-on-year.
The basic gas+refrigeration system is stable, and energy storage is supporting leading customers. The China Automobile Association expects sales of new energy vehicles to reach 11.5 million units in 2024, an increase of 20% over the previous year. The company has the largest market share in the world for products such as electronic expansion valves for vehicles, integrated thermal management components for new energy vehicles, and Omega pumps, and continues to promote a global layout. The auto parts business is expected to continue to grow in the future as thermal management products are upgraded and overseas business expands. The home appliance industry is steady. The company continues to improve the product structure, increase the proportion of shipments of high-margin products, and promote self-development of key manufacturing equipment to further reduce costs and increase efficiency; in the energy storage business, the company has formed a complete line of unit products and incorporated it as a leading customer package, laying the foundation for subsequent business development.
A humanoid robot with a strategic card position is expected to start a third growth curve. The robot industry has great potential for development and broad application prospects, and is a new track for future industries. The industry is close to mass production. Tesla plans to focus on R&D and testing of humanoid robot products in 2024 and begin mass production and sales before the end of 2025. The company focuses on electromechanical actuators and has begun production line construction. The company plans to invest in the construction of a robotic mechatronic actuator and domain controller R&D and production base project in Qiantang District, with a total investment of not less than 3.8 billion yuan, and set up a joint venture with Green Harmonic in Mexico to mainly develop products related to harmonic reducers, which is expected to benefit from industry growth in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation: The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 36/43.49 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 20/16/14 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream sales fall short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and customer development falls short of expectations.