Incidents:
On July 1, 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 47,774 new vehicles in June 2024, an increase of 46.7% over the previous year. 108,581 vehicles were delivered in the second quarter of 2024, up 25.5% year over year.
After L6's launch, sales volume improved, and sales potential increased steadily
In May 2024, Ideal Auto delivered 48,000 new vehicles, up 46.7% year on year and 36.4% month on month. A total of 109,000 2024Q2 vehicles were delivered, an increase of 25.5% year on year. It is estimated that 2024H2 revenue is expected to exceed 32 billion yuan, a significant increase over the previous month and year over year. Benefiting from the sales momentum driven by the launch of the L6, sales volume of L series models increased significantly. In June, ideally, a limited-time zero down payment car purchase will be launched. The cost of car purchase will be reduced and the customer base will expand, and sales are expected to increase. Delivery data for Ideal L6 continued to rise after launch. More than 20,000 vehicles were delivered in June 2024, and more than 40,000 units were delivered for all models, and the delivery pace stabilized.
Intelligent acceleration, ideal iterative intelligent driving routes and functions
On July 5, 2024, Ideal Auto began the 2024 Smart Driving Summer Press Conference to provide company-level answers on unplanned NOA function improvements, the latest advances in intelligent driving, and future autonomous driving technology routes. In terms of functionality, Ideal Auto will officially launch the Wutu NOA to all AD Max users in early July, so that it can be driven all over the country, easy to use all over the country, and the intelligent driving function will be fully upgraded.
Ecology continues to expand, overcharging+service continues to improve
The service and charging ecosystem continue to be upgraded. As of May 31, 2024, Ideal Auto has 497 retail centers across the country, covering 148 cities; 421 after-sales maintenance centers and authorized sheet spray centers, covering 220 cities. Ideal Auto has put into use 614 ideal overcharging stations across the country, with 2,726 charging stations. Continued deepening at the lower city level is expected to further complement the service ecosystem network.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1473/2054/280 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%, net profit to mother of 85.3/142.4/23.72 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%/67.0%/66.6%, EPS 4.02/6.71/11.18 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 40.6%. In view of the continuous improvement of the company's product strength, the gradual improvement of the product matrix and energy type, and the steady increase in the level of intelligence, sales are expected to be realized. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: Downstream consumer demand falls short of expectations; industry competition increases risk; risk of rising raw material prices; intelligent functions and progress fall short of expectations.