According to the financial news app, traders in the $27 trillion US Treasury market are betting on higher long-term bond yields, as Wall Street adjusts to the possibility of Trump's return to the White House. After the first US presidential debate, traders have been buying shorter-term US bonds and selling longer-term ones. This trend of betting on the steepening of the US bond yield curve has been increasing since the first debate. Data shows that the yield gap between two-year and ten-year US Treasury bonds surged by about 13 basis points on last Friday and this Monday, the largest two-day movement since October last year.

Subadra Rajappa, Head of US Rate Strategy at French investment bank Societe Generale, said "It's probably not too early to get involved, even though it's too early to digest all the election results. The recent trend has been a steeper bear market, with the market seemingly seeing a higher likelihood of a victory by Trump."

Morgan Stanley said that the likelihood of Trump winning the US presidential election is increasing, and in such a scenario, economic growth in the US may slow down while inflation may accelerate. This is making betting on a steeper US bond yield curve more attractive. Strategists added that "The market must now cope with the prospect of changes in immigration and tariff policies, and US economic growth is already cooling, which makes it more likely that the market will digest the impact of Fed rate cuts." "With the backdrop of growing concerns about the deficit, a Republican victory could bring upside risk to long-term US bond yields." Barclays Bank also recommended that investors hedge against inflation in the US Treasury market.

JPMorgan's data showed that the market has seen a trend of betting on a steepening of the US bond yield curve. The bank's latest survey of clients showed that positions betting on a rise in US bond prices have decreased by 5 percentage points, with net long positions at their lowest level since June 10.

The premium paid to hedge against long-term Treasury bond sales has shifted from bullish to bearish. Since the peak of 4.65% for the 30-year Treasury bond yield at the end of May, traders have been paying the highest price to hedge against the sale of long-term government bonds. In the past week, the most notable positions have been short positions, with the aim of reaching the high of 4.55% for the 10-year Treasury bond yield on August 23.

Meanwhile, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds expanded their net short positions in long-term bonds to their highest level since 2022 as of the week ending June 25.