Yesterday, cyclical stocks, which had been dormant for a long time, exploded collectively, and capital flowed in to the north. The steel, coal, building materials, and real estate sectors registered the highest gains. Catalyzed by the big infrastructure market, two graded funds, Zhongrong China Securities Steel B and Zhongrong China Securities Coal B, both blocked gains and stops; many coal, real estate, and non-ferrous grade B funds rose more than 4% in a single day, and market activity also increased markedly.
Steel B and coal grade B rose and stopped
Market activity is soaring
Yesterday, China Finance Fund's two graded B funds — Zhongrong Guosheng Steel B (Steel B for short) and Zhongrong China Securities Coal B (coal grade B for short), became the focus of the market. Steel B rose 10.05%, coal B rose 9.95%, and both climbed to the top, blocking the rise and end of the market by a large number of purchases.
In addition to the two graded B funds mentioned above, graded B funds, which track sectors such as coal, steel, and real estate, have also performed well. Data show that as of yesterday's closing, China Securities China Securities Coal B and Fuguo China Securities Coal B all rose more than 8% on the same day, Penghua China Securities Steel Industry B rose 6.07%, and China Merchants Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Real Estate B and Guotai Real Estate B also rose more than 4%. Of the 13 graded B funds in the above sector, 10 had a one-day increase of more than 4%.
Judging from the level of activity, whether in terms of trading volume or turnover rate, the above varieties are also very popular at the trading level. According to the data, the 13 grade B funds that followed the steel, coal, real estate and other industries yesterday traded 83.54 million yuan on the same day, which is 114% higher than the average daily turnover since November; the average turnover rate for grade B on that day was 4.24%, 2.77 times the average daily turnover rate for that month. Among them, yesterday's turnover of 10 grade B was double the average daily turnover in November; Penghua Resources B traded 421,500 yuan yesterday, 6.76 times higher than the average daily turnover for that month; the turnover of China Southern China Securities High Speed Rail Industry B also increased 1.15 times to 7.58 times over the same period, an increase of more than 5 times. Thailand's non-ferrous metals industry B, the country with the largest turnover, had a turnover of 62.8897 million yuan on the same day, which was 91.48% higher than the average daily turnover for the same month, and nearly doubled.
Along with the price increase, the turnover rate of many funds has also increased dramatically. The turnover rates of steel B and coal grade B funds reached 13.88% and 9.17% respectively yesterday, which is 10.1 and 6.23 percentage points higher than the average daily turnover rate for that month, respectively.
Referring to the market pattern of cyclical stock market explosions and white horse stock adjustments, Wei Fengchun, chief macro strategy analyst at Bosch Fund, said that recently, the influence of disruptive factors in the external situation on A-share trends has been relatively weak. This is probably because the market trading structure is too extreme, causing pressure on A-shares and white horses to rise. Consumption and other sectors have adjusted, and the cycle and utilities have registered the highest gains.
Wei Fengchun said that growth, inflation, and liquidity factors do not support underallocation of A-shares, and valuations and transactions have not sent clear negative signals. There is no sign of a change in fundamentals. There is a high probability that the style will be cyclical and financial in the next two to three weeks.
The average premium rate is 12%
Industry insiders suggest risks
However, many steel and coal grade B have risen sharply, causing the premium rates of these funds to remain high. According to the data, as of yesterday's closing, the average premium rate for the 13 grade B models mentioned above was 12.34%, which is 2 percentage points higher than the overall premium rate for grade B.
Among them, Penghua Guosheng Steel Industry B, Penghua China Securities High Speed Rail Industry B, and Southern China Securities High Speed Rail Industry B all had premium rates of over 20%; the two funds that have experienced ups and downs have premium rates close to 10%, and overall, they are in a high premium state. Take Steel B as an example. Its net value is 0.66 yuan, while the transaction price in the secondary market is 0.72 yuan, and the fund premium rate has reached 9.55%.
An index fund manager in Beijing said in this regard that the discount premium rate measures the difference between the transaction price of a fund in the secondary market and the net value of the fund. Generally speaking, a higher discount rate indicates that the value of the fund is underestimated and has more investment value; while a higher premium rate indicates that the value of the fund is overvalued, there is a possibility that it will return to the net value of the fund in the future, and there is a risk of adjustment.
The index fund manager mentioned above said that when the stock market rises a lot, grade B will show an overall premium trading situation. To assess the impact of the premium level on investors, it is necessary to look at the trend of constituent stocks held by the fund. If future trends or investor expectations continue to be strong, this type of product will be in short supply in the secondary market, and prices are expected to remain high and maintain a state of high premium trading. If the market is adjusted and the high premium trading conditions are compounded by the decline in the net value of the fund itself, this type of fund will face a greater risk of adjustment. “In a situation where the constituent stocks of tiered funds are expected to continue to rise, they may maintain a high premium trading state. Investors should participate rationally to avoid the adjustment risks brought about by excessive premium rates.”
