Brief performance review
On July 1, the company released the 2012 semi-annual report performance forecast:
24Q2 achieved revenue of 67.16 to 7.969 billion yuan, -2% to +16% year over year and +4% to 24% month over month.
Net profit attributable to mother was 817 to 956 million yuan, +3% to +21% year-on-year. The net margin center was 12.07%, +0.49 pct year over year.
1H24 achieved revenue of 131.55 billion yuan to 14.408 billion yuan, +5% ~ +15% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 1,464 to 1,604 billion yuan, +5% ~ +15% year-on-year. The net margin center was 11.13%, +0 pct year over year.
Management analysis
1. The split is as follows:
Revenue side: The company's revenue growth is mainly driven by: 1) the continued release of new orders for thermal management of new energy vehicles, and 2) the steady increase in the market share of refrigeration and air conditioning electrical components.
Profit side: 23Q2 foreign exchange earnings reached 221 million yuan, so the net interest rate base was high, reaching 11.58%. Under the combined pressure of OEMs and downstream price cuts in '24, the company achieved positive growth in the 24Q2 net interest rate center through measures such as product technology upgrades and structural optimization. It is expected that the three fees will drop significantly.
2. Follow-up outlook:
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the company, as a leading thermal management company for new energy vehicles, is expected to continue to receive new orders and drive the company's sales growth. In '24, the company's performance growth was under pressure in the short term due to weak sales growth for major North American customers and Volvo customers.
We expect the Tesla humanoid robot 24H2 to release a fixed point. As a leading company in rotary actuator and linear actuator technology, the company is expected to receive orders and gradually open up room for growth during the humanoid robot deployment process.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Optimistic about the long-term industrial status of thermal management circuit companies, the second growth curve for robots is extremely explosive. Affected by poor shipments from overseas customers and drastic air conditioning price cuts, we lowered our revenue and net profit. We expect revenue of 276.91/340.47/41,497 billion yuan for 24-26, respectively, +12.8%/+23%/+21.9% year-on-year, and revenue of 10.12/9.58/1,720 billion yuan. Net profit for 24-26 is expected to be $34.25/41.95/5010 billion yuan, respectively, or +17.24%/+22.49%/+19.44% year-on-year, down 1.05/0.99/183 million yuan. The market value on July 2 corresponds to 21.13 times PE in 2024, maintaining the “overholding” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream demand fell short of expectations; competition in the industry intensified; and progress in advancing new business fell short of expectations.