Global macro
On Tuesday, equity index futures of all three major US stock indexes fell.
Powell will appear at the ECB forum at 9:30 pm tonight.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at the European Central Bank forum held in Sintra at 21:30 Beijing time. This is his first public appearance after the Fed's June meeting. Before the release of employment data this week, the market will focus on Powell's latest remarks and seek clues to interest rate cuts, and there may be violent fluctuations in the market at that time. Investors are advised to pay attention to relevant risks.
Goldman Sachs recommends closing short positions on US bonds to take profits.
After advising investors to sell 5-year US bonds three weeks ago, Morgan Stanley strategists said it was time to take profits from this trade. Including Jay Barry, strategists wrote in a report on Monday that "we advise taking profits on the short side of the 5-year within this short week before event risks rise." The yield on US 5-year government bonds has risen more than 20 basis points from its low of 4.20% less than three weeks ago. This surge has also been reflected in other parts of the curve, highlighting the intensifying selling pressure brought on by the end-of-month index rebalancing as well as increased concerns about US interest rate hikes after last week's presidential debate.
The US chip industry is facing a labor shortage, and the Biden administration is investing heavily to address it.
The Biden administration is launching a program to train workers for the U.S. computer chip industry to avoid a labor shortage that threatens domestic semiconductor production. The program, called the Workforce Collaborative Alliance, will use some of the $5 billion in federal funding earmarked for the construction of the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC). The NSTC plans to provide funding for up to 10 workforce-development projects, with budgets ranging from $500,000 to $2 million.
Ample supply of "AI fuel"! Kaituo Macro: S&P 500 may be pushed to 7000 points next year.
Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics, believes that enthusiasm for artificial intelligence may help push the S&P 500 to a peak of 7,000 in 2025, although he also believes it bears similarities to the previous "Internet bubble." He said: "The experience of the internet bubble suggests that the valuation of the US stock market could rise further, and the optimistic sentiment towards artificial intelligence has fueled expectations of multiple expansion. That's why we think the S&P 500 could reach 7,000 points next year."
CICC: There is still a possibility of market turmoil around Trump's policies in the near future.
CICC's research report pointed out that after the first round of presidential debates, Trump's support expanded and the Republican Party was slightly ahead in both houses of Congress. Therefore, the possibility of a "Republican sweep" increases, making it possible for market turmoil around Trump's policies in the near future.
According to the bank, from the perspective of Trump's policies, his trade policies will raise global and Chinese inflation by one percentage point; his fiscal and tax policies will boost net income by 3.4 percentage points in 2025; in terms of industrial investment, his policies are more supportive of traditional manufacturing, oil and natural gas, which may lead to a significant transformation in the energy and auto industries. Overall, the combination of Trump's policies is "imposing tariffs and cutting taxes," and it promotes investment while limiting immigration. The policies are inflationary.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The net income increased by 3.4 percentage points in 2025; it is suggested that the industry will undergo significant transformation due to the policy's support for traditional manufacturing and energy sectors like oil and natural gas. Overall, the combination of Trump's policies is imposing tariffs and cutting taxes, which could lead to investment while limiting immigration. The policies are inflationary.
Maersk CEO: The interruption of Red Sea shipping will continue until the third quarter of this year.
Shipping giant Maersk said on Monday that the next few months will be challenging for shipping companies and businesses as the interruption of container shipping through the Red Sea will continue until the third quarter of this year. "The longer this situation continues, the more we will incur costs. We don't know how much we can recover and how long it will take to recover costs. The higher rates we see now are temporary."
Hot news
Growth tech is down in pre-market, with Nvidia down more than 1% and Tesla up more than 4%.
Tesla's global deliveries in Q2 were 444,000 cars, higher than expected, and rose more than 4% before the market opened.
According to the data released by CAAM,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$In June, China's estimated wholesale sales were 71,000 vehicles, and the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles ranked second. Compared with 72,573 in May and 93,680 in June last year, sales fell by 2.16% and 24.20%, respectively. Tesla's Q2 deliveries were 443,956, with an estimated 439,302. In the second quarter, 386,576 Model 3/Y cars were produced, and the Q2 delivery of Model 3/Y was 422,405. Other models produced in Q2 were 24,255 and other models delivered in Q2 were 21,551.
Tesla rose more than 4% before the market opened.
Nvidia may be sued by French antitrust authorities.
French antitrust enforcement authorities are preparing to accuse Nvidia of anti-competitive behavior, according to people familiar with the matter. The French regulator will be the world's first to take such action and is bringing the case after raids on Nvidia offices last year. The French antitrust regulator declined to comment to Bloomberg, and Nvidia declined to comment. As of this writing, Nvidia is down more than 1% in pre-market trading.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$accused of anti-competitive behavior. The French agency will be the first in the world to take such action, following last year's raid on Nvidia's offices. The French antitrust agency declined to comment to Bloomberg, and Nvidia declined to comment as well. As of press time, Nvidia was down more than 1% before the market opened.
Former Microsoft CEO's wealth surpasses Bill Gates' for the first time in history.
On July 1st, the personal wealth of the second former head of the technology giant Microsoft surpassed that of its founder for the first time in history.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Former CEO and President Steve Ballmer surpassed Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates for the first time on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, becoming the world's sixth richest person. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Ballmer's net worth reached $157.2 billion, while Gates' wealth was $156.7 billion, placing him seventh.
Several Japanese financial institutions plan to sell approximately 500 billion yen worth of Honda Motor shares.
Insiders said that Japan's four major insurer companies and other financial companies plan to sell about 500 billion yen ($3.1 billion) in Honda Motor Co. shares, including two subsidiaries of the group. Honda will soon officially approve the two insurance companies' sale of its shares. Toyota has announced plans to buy back up to 300 billion yen in stock in the current fiscal year, which is seen as helping to digest the impact of the sale.$Tokio Marine Holdings (8766.JP)$ and $MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725.JP)$Bloomberg quoted insiders as saying that the US Department of Justice will sue for criminal fraud, forcing the company to choose between pleading guilty or going to court. Insiders revealed that the DOJ told family members of the two victims of the two 737 Max accidents and their lawyers at a meeting on Sunday that Boeing must decide by this weekend whether to plead guilty. Two insiders said the DOJ will notify Boeing that the company must pay an additional criminal fine of $243.6 million, in addition to the $243.6 million already paid under a deferred prosecution agreement in 2021, making the total fines close to $500 million.
Boeing is facing criminal fraud charges.
Popular China concept stocks fluctuated before the market, and NIO Inc. fell more than 1%.$Boeing (BA.US)$Alibaba invested $5.8 billion in share repurchases in the June quarter, the largest quarterly buyback effort. According to the latest announcement, as of the quarter ending June 30, 2024, Alibaba has repurchased a total of 613 million common shares at a total price of $5.8 billion (equivalent to 77 million American depositary shares).
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
As of the week ending June 24, US Redbook year-on-year retail sales rate (%) was released at 20:55.
US May JOLTs job openings (10,000) will be released at 22:00.
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$US API crude oil inventory changes (10,000 barrels) as of the week ending June 28 will be released at 05:30 the next morning.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, and Brazilian Central Bank Governor Nogueira will speak at the Central Bank Forum held by the European Central Bank at 21:30.
The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, up 28.10% year-on-year, showing significant growth. Product structure-wise, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products was 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
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Editor/Emily