Source: Wall Street See
Tesla's second-quarter deliveries are expected to remain weak, marking the first time in history that they have fallen year-on-year for two consecutive quarters. However, the market may be more concerned about the Robotaxi Day on August 8th and the second-quarter deployment of energy storage.
Overnight$Tesla (TSLA.US)$It rose more than 6% to $209.86, with a market cap surged by 280 billion yuan, recovering the 200-day moving average for the first time since January. Recently, Tesla has surged continuously, with an increase of 19% in one month.
On the news front, Tesla will release its second-quarter sales data on Tuesday, but analysts predict that the delivery situation is still gloomy. The delivery volume for this quarter is expected to drop by 5.4% year-on-year, marking the first time in history that sales have fallen for two consecutive quarters.
Meanwhile, the focus is more on Tesla's Robotaxi and energy storage businesses than on its delivery volume.
Some analysts believe that the Robotaxi Day on August 8th is a recent catalyst that could help drive the company's future growth.
Other analysts argue that the importance of Tesla's energy storage business will overshadow its weak delivery volume. Barclays predicts that Tesla's energy storage profit margin will exceed its auto business next year.
Is the delivery situation still gloomy?
Analysts expect a total of 438,019 cars to be delivered, marking the first time in history that sales have fallen for two consecutive quarters with a year-on-year decline. This means that Tesla's delivery volume in the first half of this year was insufficient to reach 1 million cars, and many people hope that Tesla's auto delivery volume will reach 2 million for the first time ever.
In the fourth quarter of last year, Tesla set a record of 484,507 deliveries, while the total deliveries in the first quarter of this year, 386,810, were even lower than the lowest expectations, marking the company's lowest quarterly deliveries since the second quarter of 2012.
At the same time, many analysts believe that Tesla's delivery volume will be lower than 436,000. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who has a long-term bullish view of Tesla, believes that the delivery figure will be between 415,000 and 420,000.
RBC Capital has lowered its expectations for Tesla's second-quarter deliveries to 410,000, a sharp drop of 23% from its previous forecast of 533,000 deliveries. Barclays Bank also released an estimate of 415,000 cars last week.
Robotaxi opens the next stage of the "growth story"
Market speculations suggest that the Robotaxi Day on August 8th is a recent catalyst and a key moment in Tesla's "growth story".
Speculation suggests that ultimately, according to Musk's various actions and other statements, Tesla hopes to turn Robotaxi into a ride-sharing platform similar to Uber.
Ahead of the company's plan to release its Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) in early September, Musk took to social media a little over a month ago to praise Travis Kalanick, co-founder of Uber. Although Kalanick left Uber in 2017, he has had success in developing shared travel platforms.
Currently, Tesla is in the midst of two growth waves, and Robotaxi may drive further growth for the company in the future. Even so, Tesla still needs to execute these projects and strictly adhere to the expected timetable, something it has consistently struggled to do in the past.
Tesla's energy storage business benefits from the AI boom.
Due to a slowdown in demand for electric vehicles in 2024 and the dominance of the AI boom, some analysts are more focused on Tesla's second-quarter energy storage data.
In addition to global delivery volume, Tesla also announced its second-quarter energy storage deployments on Tuesday, which achieved a record high of 4,053 MW in the first quarter.
Tesla currently offers solar panels and solar roofs, as well as energy walls for storage purposes. Its giant Megapack energy storage project has a capacity of 360 MWh and can provide electricity for 60,000 households every year.
Musk stated at the shareholders' meeting on June 13th that Tesla's development in energy storage and fixed battery deployment is advancing towards its annual growth rate target of 200% to 300%.
Morgan Stanley's well-known auto analyst Adam Jonas released a report last week stating that with increased energy demand from GAI, Tesla's energy business may be in a unique position to benefit from accelerated AI investments in the US power grid.
Jonas values Tesla Energy at $130 billion, or $36 per share. The analyst predicts that Tesla Energy will generate around $7 billion in revenue this year, a 20% increase from 2023, with a projected profit margin surpassing that of the auto business in 2024.
Editor / jayden