Since the beginning of this year, ai has driven the American stock market to hit historical highs continuously, while also helping to create strong corporate profits.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $Apple (AAPL.US)$Created strong corporate profits.

Neil Shearing, Chief Economist of Capital Economics, believes that people's enthusiasm for ai may help it reach a peak of 7000 points in 2025, although he also believes that this is similar to the previous "Internet bubble".$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Reached a peak of 7000 points in 2025, although he also believes it has similarities to the previous "internet bubble".

In his latest report released on Monday, he wrote, "The experience of the Internet bubble suggests that the valuation of the US stock market may continue to rise, and the optimistic sentiment of artificial intelligence has pushed expectations for additional multiple expansions, which is why we think the S&P 500 index may reach 7000 points next year."

However, he also pointed out that AI may need more time to have a significant impact on the US economy, although recent innovations (such as the Internet) have penetrated into the economy faster than in the past.

For example, after the invention of the steam locomotive, it took more than 70 years to be widely used, while the adoption lag time of the information and communication technology revolution has been shortened to 5 to 10 years. By the mid-1990s, the impact of technology began to appear in economic data, and in the second half of this decade, the growth rate of US productivity was about twice that of the 1980s.

Therefore, Shearing believes that the AI revolution will begin to have an impact on the economy in the second half of this decade.

Is Nvidia a bubble?

Nvidia and other AI companies' stock prices seem unstoppable, which has caused some investors to worry about speculation surrounding this technology. But Shearing believes that what is currently happening appears to be that AI is following the "technology maturity curve" (Gartner Hype Cycle), which shows how the public's perception of new technology evolves over time.

"At least in terms of the macroeconomic impact of artificial intelligence, we are certainly approaching the peak of excessively high expectations. This indicates that we will experience a period of skepticism before we reach the peak of pessimism, and ultimately the benefits of productivity begin to show up, "he wrote.

Shearing said that Nvidia investors are trying to capture the economic benefits of new technology before they are fully realized, which has led to increasing doubts about the ultimate economic benefits of this AI revolution. And this kind of concern may just explain the recent fluctuations in Nvidia's stock price.

Editor / jayden